Strategic Policy Responsiveness to Opponent Platforms: Evidence From U.S. House Incumbents Running Against Moderate or Extremist Challengers

Are politicians ideologically rigid, or do officeholders adjust policy strategically for electoral purposes? This paper sheds new light on this longstanding question by studying how U.S. House incumbents alter their roll call voting record prior to elections depending on their challenger’s platform. Estimating non-incumbent candidates' policy positions using pre-primary transaction-level campaign finance data, I classify as extremist the more liberal (conservative) of the top-two candidates in Democratic (Republican) challenger primaries. Leveraging a regression discontinuity design, I exploit the quasi-random assignment of incumbents to moderate or extremist challengers by close primary elections of the incumbent’s opponent party. I find that incumbents alter their roll-call voting record in the direction of their opponent’s position, committing to a more moderate policy when running against an extremist challenger and differentiating their position from more moderate opponents. Consistent with strategic responsiveness to electoral incentives, policy adjustment to challengers is confined to re-election seeking incumbents and to incumbents defending a seat in a competitive district. I provide suggestive evidence that incumbents' reaction to challengers is conditioned by the presence of third candidates, and reflects a trade-off between persuading swing voters at the center and mobilizing core supporters. Importantly, incumbents' adjustment is not driven by a valence advantage of moderate over extremist challengers but by incumbents’ reaction to opponents’ policy positions, suggesting strategic complementarity of policy platforms

Strategic Policy Responsiveness to Opponent Platforms: Evidence From U.S. House Incumbents Running Against Moderate or Extremist Challengers

Are politicians ideologically rigid, or do officeholders adjust policy strategically for electoral purposes? This paper sheds new light on this longstanding question by studying how U.S. House incumbents alter their roll call voting record prior to elections depending on their challenger’s platform. Estimating non-incumbent candidates' policy positions using pre-primary transaction-level campaign finance data, I classify as extremist the more liberal (conservative) of the top-two candidates in Democratic (Republican) challenger primaries. Leveraging a regression discontinuity design, I exploit the quasi-random assignment of incumbents to moderate or extremist challengers by close primary elections of the incumbent’s opponent party. I find that incumbents alter their roll-call voting record depending on their opponent’s position, committing to a more moderate policy when running against an extremist compared to a counterfactual moderate. Consistent with strategic responsiveness to electoral incentives, policy adjustment to challengers is confined to re-election seeking incumbents and to incumbents defending a seat in a competitive district. I provide suggestive evidence that incumbents' reaction to challengers is conditioned by the presence of third candidates, and reflects a trade-off between persuading swing voters at the center and mobilizing core supporters. Importantly, incumbents' adjustment is not driven by a valence advantage of moderate over extremist challengers but by incumbents’ reaction to opponents’ policy positions, suggesting strategic complementarity of policy platforms

Out of Office, Out of Step? Re-election Concners and Ideological Shirking in Lame Duck Sessions of the U.S. House of Representatives

Do elections constrain incumbent politicians’ policy choices? To answer this longstanding question, this paper proposes a novel identification strategy to separate electoral incentives from selection effects. Taking advantage of the unique setup of lame-duck sessions in the U.S. Congress, where lame-duck incumbents who lost re-election vote on the same issues as their re-elected colleagues, I use a close election regression discontinuity design to exploit quasirandom assignment of re-election seeking representatives to lame-duck status, which is orthogonal to voter preferences and incumbents’ type. Comparing within-incumbent changes in roll call voting of barely unseated lame ducks to narrowly re-elected co-partisans serving the same congressional term, I find that lame ducks revert to more extreme positions with lame-duck Democrats (Republicans) voting more liberally (conservatively). Consistent with lame ducks’ loss of re-election incentives driving the result, the effect of lame-duck status on roll call extremism is more pronounced among ex-ante more vulnerable legislators. I also consider, but ultimately dismiss, several other mechanisms including emotional backlash, logrolling motives, party control, and selective abstention

Combined biological and chemical assessment of estrogenic activities in wastewater treatment plant effluents

Five wastewater treatment plant effluents were analyzed for known endocrine disrupters and estrogenicity. Estrogenicity was determined by using the yeast estrogen screen (YES) and by measuring the blood plasma vitellogenin (VTG) concentrations in exposed male rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss). While all wastewater treatment plant effluents contained measurable concentrations of estrogens and gave a positive response with the YES, only at two sites did the male fish have significantly increased VTG blood plasma concentrations after the exposure, compared to pre-exposure concentrations. Estrone (E1) concentrations ranged up to 51ngL−1, estradiol (E2) up to 6ngL−1, and ethinylestradiol (EE2) up to 2ngL−1 in the 90samples analyzed. Alkylphenols, alkylphenolmonoethoxylates and alkylphenoldiethoxylates, even though found at µgL−1 concentrations in effluents from wastewater treatment plants with a significant industrial content, did not contribute much to the overall estrogenicity of the samples taken due to their low relative potency. Expected estrogenicities were calculated from the chemical data for each sample by using the principle of concentration additivity and relative potencies of the various chemicals as determined with the yeast estrogen screen. Measured and calculated estradiol equivalents gave the same order of magnitude and correlated rather well (R 2=0.6

Studienprotokoll: Register zur Prognose akut-symptomatischer Anfälle (PROSA-Register) – eine prospektive multizentrische Beobachtungsstudie

Background: Acute symptomatic epileptic seizures occur in close temporal relation to an acute disturbance of brain function. They are associated with a low risk of subsequent unprovoked seizures; thus, current guidelines recommend not to administer a long-term antiseizure medication; however, in clinical practice long-term secondary seizure prophylaxis is frequently initiated. The seizure prognosis after guideline-conform untreated or only briefly treated acute symptomatic seizures, is so far unknown. Hypothesis: Following an acute symptomatic first epileptic seizure of structural etiology, the 1-year risk of subsequent unprovoked seizures is not higher than 25%, even if antiseizure medication was not applied or for a short period only. Methods: The PROSE register is a single-arm, open, prospective, multicenter observational study. A total of 115 subjects aged 18 years or older with an acute symptomatic first epileptic seizure of structural etiology will be included if the seizure was not a status epilepticus. Intrahospital follow-up will be based on the hospital records. Telephone follow-up interviews will be conducted 3, 6, and 12 months after the acute symptomatic seizure. Discussion: The PROSE register will shed light on current treatment practice of acute symptomatic seizures and the actual seizure outcome within 1 year. The results are assumed to support the current evidence that giving antiseizure medication for a longer period of time exceeding the acute phase of the underlying condition is unnecessary

Outcomes of cerebral venous thrombosis due to vaccine-induced immune thrombotic thrombocytopenia after the acute phase

© 2022 American Heart Association, Inc.Background: Cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) due to vaccine-induced immune thrombotic thrombocytopenia (VITT) is a severe condition, with high in-hospital mortality rates. Here, we report clinical outcomes of patients with CVT-VITT after SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) vaccination who survived initial hospitalization. Methods: We used data from an international registry of patients who developed CVT within 28 days of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, collected until February 10, 2022. VITT diagnosis was classified based on the Pavord criteria. Outcomes were mortality, functional independence (modified Rankin Scale score 0–2), VITT relapse, new thrombosis, and bleeding events (all after discharge from initial hospitalization). Results: Of 107 CVT-VITT cases, 43 (40%) died during initial hospitalization. Of the remaining 64 patients, follow-up data were available for 60 (94%) patients (37 definite VITT, 9 probable VITT, and 14 possible VITT). Median age was 40 years and 45/60 (75%) patients were women. Median follow-up time was 150 days (interquartile range, 94–194). Two patients died during follow-up (3% [95% CI, 1%–11%). Functional independence was achieved by 53/60 (88% [95% CI, 78%–94%]) patients. No new venous or arterial thrombotic events were reported. One patient developed a major bleeding during follow-up (fatal intracerebral bleed). Conclusions: In contrast to the high mortality of CVT-VITT in the acute phase, mortality among patients who survived the initial hospitalization was low, new thrombotic events did not occur, and bleeding events were rare. Approximately 9 out of 10 CVT-VITT patients who survived the acute phase were functionally independent at follow-up.This study was funded by the Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development (ZonMw, grant number 10430072110005), the Dr. C.J. Vaillant Foundation, and Hospital District of Helsinki and Uusimaa (grant TYH2022223).info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Optimasi Portofolio Resiko Menggunakan Model Markowitz MVO Dikaitkan dengan Keterbatasan Manusia dalam Memprediksi Masa Depan dalam Perspektif Al-Qur`an

Risk portfolio on modern finance has become increasingly technical, requiring the use of sophisticated mathematical tools in both research and practice. Since companies cannot insure themselves completely against risk, as human incompetence in predicting the future precisely that written in Al-Quran surah Luqman verse 34, they have to manage it to yield an optimal portfolio. The objective here is to minimize the variance among all portfolios, or alternatively, to maximize expected return among all portfolios that has at least a certain expected return. Furthermore, this study focuses on optimizing risk portfolio so called Markowitz MVO (Mean-Variance Optimization). Some theoretical frameworks for analysis are arithmetic mean, geometric mean, variance, covariance, linear programming, and quadratic programming. Moreover, finding a minimum variance portfolio produces a convex quadratic programming, that is minimizing the objective function ðð¥with constraintsð ð 𥠥 ðandð´ð¥ = ð. The outcome of this research is the solution of optimal risk portofolio in some investments that could be finished smoothly using MATLAB R2007b software together with its graphic analysis

Search for heavy resonances decaying to two Higgs bosons in final states containing four b quarks

A search is presented for narrow heavy resonances X decaying into pairs of Higgs bosons (H) in proton-proton collisions collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC at root s = 8 TeV. The data correspond to an integrated luminosity of 19.7 fb(-1). The search considers HH resonances with masses between 1 and 3 TeV, having final states of two b quark pairs. Each Higgs boson is produced with large momentum, and the hadronization products of the pair of b quarks can usually be reconstructed as single large jets. The background from multijet and t (t) over bar events is significantly reduced by applying requirements related to the flavor of the jet, its mass, and its substructure. The signal would be identified as a peak on top of the dijet invariant mass spectrum of the remaining background events. No evidence is observed for such a signal. Upper limits obtained at 95 confidence level for the product of the production cross section and branching fraction sigma(gg -> X) B(X -> HH -> b (b) over barb (b) over bar) range from 10 to 1.5 fb for the mass of X from 1.15 to 2.0 TeV, significantly extending previous searches. For a warped extra dimension theory with amass scale Lambda(R) = 1 TeV, the data exclude radion scalar masses between 1.15 and 1.55 TeV

Measurement of the top quark mass using charged particles in pp collisions at root s=8 TeV

Peer reviewe

Search for supersymmetry in events with one lepton and multiple jets in proton-proton collisions at root s=13 TeV

Peer reviewe