Bayesian analysis of 210Pb dating

In many studies of environmental change of the past few centuries, 210Pb dating is used to obtain chronologies for sedimentary sequences. One of the most commonly used approaches to estimate the ages of depths in a sequence is to assume a constant rate of supply (CRS) or influx of `unsupported' 210Pb from the atmosphere, together with a constant or varying amount of `supported' 210Pb. Current 210Pb dating models do not use a proper statistical framework and thus provide poor estimates of errors. Here we develop a new model for 210Pb dating, where both ages and values of supported and unsupported 210Pb form part of the parameters. We apply our model to a case study from Canada as well as to some simulated examples. Our model can extend beyond the current CRS approach, deal with asymmetric errors and mix 210Pb with other types of dating, thus obtaining more robust, realistic and statistically better defined estimates.Comment: 22 Pages, 4 Figure

Widespread recent ecosystem state shifts in high-latitude peatlands of northeastern Canada and implications for carbon sequestration

Northern peatlands are a major component of the global carbon (C) cycle. Widespread climate-driven ecohydrological changes in these ecosystems can have major consequences on their C sequestration function. Here, we synthesize plant macrofossil data from 33 surficial peat cores from different ecoclimatic regions, with high-resolution chronologies. The main objectives were to document recent ecosystem state shifts and explore their impact on C sequestration in high-latitude undisturbed peatlands of northeastern Canada. Our synthesis shows widespread recent ecosystem shifts in peatlands, such as transitions from oligotrophic fens to bogs and Sphagnum expansion, coinciding with climate warming which has also influenced C accumulation during the last similar to 100 years. The rapid shifts towards drier bog communities and an expansion of Sphagnum sect. Acutifolia after 1980 CE were most pronounced in the northern subarctic sites and are concurrent with summer warming in northeastern Canada. These results provide further evidence of a northward migration of Sphagnum-dominated peatlands in North America in response to climate change. The results also highlight differences in the timing of ecosystem shifts among peatlands and regions, reflecting internal peatland dynamics and varying responses of vegetation communities. Our study suggests that the recent rapid climate-driven shifts from oligotrophic fen to drier bog communities have promoted plant productivity and thus peat C accumulation. We highlight the importance of considering recent ecohydrological trajectories when modelling the potential contribution of peatlands to climate change. Our study suggests that, contrary to expectations, peat C sequestration could be promoted in high-latitude non-permafrost peatlands where wet sedge fens may transition to drier Sphagnum bog communities due to warmer and longer growing seasons.Peer reviewe

Cocapture of cognate and bystander antigens can activate autoreactive B cells

Autoantibodies against myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein (MOG) are associated with autoimmune central nervous system diseases like acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (ADEM). For ADEM, it is speculated that a preceding infection is the trigger of the autoimmune response, but the mechanism connecting the infection to the production of MOG antibodies remains a mystery. We reasoned that the ability of B cells to capture cognate antigen from cell membranes, along with small quantities of coexpressed “bystander” antigens, might enable B-cell escape from tolerance. We tested this hypothesis using influenza hemagglutinin as a model viral antigen and transgenic, MOG-specific B cells. Using flow cytometry and live and fixed cell microscopy, we show that MOG-specific B cells take up large amounts of MOG from cell membranes. Uptake of the antigen from the membrane leads to a strong activation of the capturing B cell. When influenza hemagglutinin is also present in the membrane of the target cell, it can be cocaptured with MOG by MOG-specific B cells via the B-cell receptor. Hemagglutinin and MOG are both presented to T cells, which in turn are activated and proliferate. As a consequence, MOG-specific B cells get help from hemagglutinin-specific T cells to produce anti-MOG antibodies. In vivo, the transfer of MOG-specific B cells into recipient mice after the cocapture of MOG and hemagglutinin leads to the production of class-switched anti-MOG antibodies, dependent on the presence of hemagglutinin-specific T cells. This mechanism offers a link between infection and autoimmunity. Keywords: tolerance; autoantibodies; antigen capture; antigen presentation; influenz

LoCuSS: A Comparison of Sunyaev-Zel'dovich Effect and Gravitational Lensing Measurements of Galaxy Clusters

We present the first measurement of the relationship between the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect signal and the mass of galaxy clusters that uses gravitational lensing to measure cluster mass, based on 14 X-ray luminous clusters at z~0.2 from the Local Cluster Substructure Survey. We measure the integrated Compton y-parameter, Y, and total projected mass of the clusters (M_GL) within a projected clustercentric radius of 350 kpc, corresponding to mean overdensities of 4000-8000 relative to the critical density. We find self-similar scaling between M_GL and Y, with a scatter in mass at fixed Y of 32%. This scatter exceeds that predicted from numerical cluster simulations, however, it is smaller than comparable measurements of the scatter in mass at fixed T_X. We also find no evidence of segregation in Y between disturbed and undisturbed clusters, as had been seen with T_X on the same physical scales. We compare our scaling relation to the Bonamente et al. relation based on mass measurements that assume hydrostatic equilibrium, finding no evidence for a hydrostatic mass bias in cluster cores (M_GL = 0.98+/-0.13 M_HSE), consistent with both predictions from numerical simulations and lensing/X-ray-based measurements of mass-observable scaling relations at larger radii. Overall our results suggest that the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect may be less sensitive than X-ray observations to the details of cluster physics in cluster cores.Comment: Minor changes to match published version: 2009 ApJL 701:114-11

Synergistic malaria vaccine combinations identified by systematic antigen screening.

A highly effective vaccine would be a valuable weapon in the drive toward malaria elimination. No such vaccine currently exists, and only a handful of the hundreds of potential candidates in the parasite genome have been evaluated. In this study, we systematically evaluated 29 antigens likely to be involved in erythrocyte invasion, an essential developmental stage during which the malaria parasite is vulnerable to antibody-mediated inhibition. Testing antigens alone and in combination identified several strain-transcending targets that had synergistic combinatorial effects in vitro, while studies in an endemic population revealed that combinations of the same antigens were associated with protection from febrile malaria. Video microscopy established that the most effective combinations targeted multiple discrete stages of invasion, suggesting a mechanistic explanation for synergy. Overall, this study both identifies specific antigen combinations for high-priority clinical testing and establishes a generalizable approach that is more likely to produce effective vaccines

Assessing the carcinogenic potential of low-dose exposures to chemical mixtures in the environment: the challenge ahead.

Lifestyle factors are responsible for a considerable portion of cancer incidence worldwide, but credible estimates from the World Health Organization and the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) suggest that the fraction of cancers attributable to toxic environmental exposures is between 7% and 19%. To explore the hypothesis that low-dose exposures to mixtures of chemicals in the environment may be combining to contribute to environmental carcinogenesis, we reviewed 11 hallmark phenotypes of cancer, multiple priority target sites for disruption in each area and prototypical chemical disruptors for all targets, this included dose-response characterizations, evidence of low-dose effects and cross-hallmark effects for all targets and chemicals. In total, 85 examples of chemicals were reviewed for actions on key pathways/mechanisms related to carcinogenesis. Only 15% (13/85) were found to have evidence of a dose-response threshold, whereas 59% (50/85) exerted low-dose effects. No dose-response information was found for the remaining 26% (22/85). Our analysis suggests that the cumulative effects of individual (non-carcinogenic) chemicals acting on different pathways, and a variety of related systems, organs, tissues and cells could plausibly conspire to produce carcinogenic synergies. Additional basic research on carcinogenesis and research focused on low-dose effects of chemical mixtures needs to be rigorously pursued before the merits of this hypothesis can be further advanced. However, the structure of the World Health Organization International Programme on Chemical Safety 'Mode of Action' framework should be revisited as it has inherent weaknesses that are not fully aligned with our current understanding of cancer biology

Limited release of previously-frozen C and increased new peat formation after thaw in permafrost peatlands

Permafrost stores globally significant amounts of carbon (C) which may start to decompose and be released to the atmosphere in form of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) as global warming promotes extensive thaw. This permafrost carbon feedback to climate is currently considered to be the most important carbon-cycle feedback missing from climate models. Predicting the magnitude of the feedback requires a better understanding of how differences in environmental conditions post-thaw, particularly hydrological conditions, control the rate at which C is released to the atmosphere. In the sporadic and discontinuous permafrost regions of north-west Canada, we measured the rates and sources of C released from relatively undisturbed ecosystems, and compared these with forests experiencing thaw following wildfire (well-drained, oxic conditions) and collapsing peat plateau sites (water-logged, anoxic conditions). Using radiocarbon analyses, we detected substantial contributions of deep soil layers and/or previously-frozen sources in our well-drained sites. In contrast, no loss of previously-frozen C as CO 2 was detected on average from collapsed peat plateaus regardless of time since thaw and despite the much larger stores of available C that were exposed. Furthermore, greater rates of new peat formation resulted in these soils becoming stronger C sinks and this greater rate of uptake appeared to compensate for a large proportion of the increase in CH 4 emissions from the collapse wetlands. We conclude that in the ecosystems we studied, changes in soil moisture and oxygen availability may be even more important than previously predicted in determining the effect of permafrost thaw on ecosystem C balance and, thus, it is essential to monitor, and simulate accurately, regional changes in surface wetness

Online Stakeholder Interactions in the Early Stage of a Megaproject

The purpose of this paper is to examine the network structure of online stakeholder discussions in the planning stage of a UK public mega project, High Speed Rail. By providing new rail connections between London, Birmingham and Manchester, this project is highly complex as it is embedded in a network of stakeholder relationships that may support or oppose the project. Data drawn from Twitter was analyzed using Social Network Analysis and inductive analysis of user profiles and content. Findings indicate that the majority of online stakeholders oppose the project and form stable clusters. Larger clusters within this network may attempt to deploy power directly in the form of a manipulation strategy while smaller clusters may seek to ally themselves with more powerful groups, a pathway strategy. Overall, the methodology is a useful complement to existing methods and may provide real time insights into the complex, evolving discussions around mega projects