MetaCAM: Ensemble-Based Class Activation Map

The need for clear, trustworthy explanations of deep learning model predictions is essential for high-criticality fields, such as medicine and biometric identification. Class Activation Maps (CAMs) are an increasingly popular category of visual explanation methods for Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs). However, the performance of individual CAMs depends largely on experimental parameters such as the selected image, target class, and model. Here, we propose MetaCAM, an ensemble-based method for combining multiple existing CAM methods based on the consensus of the top-k% most highly activated pixels across component CAMs. We perform experiments to quantifiably determine the optimal combination of 11 CAMs for a given MetaCAM experiment. A new method denoted Cumulative Residual Effect (CRE) is proposed to summarize large-scale ensemble-based experiments. We also present adaptive thresholding and demonstrate how it can be applied to individual CAMs to improve their performance, measured using pixel perturbation method Remove and Debias (ROAD). Lastly, we show that MetaCAM outperforms existing CAMs and refines the most salient regions of images used for model predictions. In a specific example, MetaCAM improved ROAD performance to 0.393 compared to 11 individual CAMs with ranges from -0.101-0.172, demonstrating the importance of combining CAMs through an ensembling method and adaptive thresholding.Comment: 9 page

Effect of fresh red blood cell transfusions on clinical outcomes in premature, very low-birth-weight infants: The ARIPI randomized trial

Context: Even though red blood cells (RBCs) are lifesaving in neonatal intensive care, transfusing older RBCs may result in higher rates of organ dysfunction, nosocomial infection, and length of hospital stay. Objective: To determine if RBCs stored for 7 days or less compared with usual standards decreased rates of major nosocomial infection and organ dysfunction in neonatal intensive care unit patients requiring at least 1 RBC transfusion. Design, Setting, and Participants: Double-blind, randomized controlled trial in 377 premature infants with birth weights less than 1250 g admitted to 6 Canadian tertiary neonatal intensive care units between May 2006 and June 2011. Intervention: Patients were randomly assigned to receive transfusion of RBCs stored 7 days or less (n=188) vs standard-issue RBCs in accordance with standard blood bank practice (n=189). Main Outcome Measures: The primary outcome was a composite measure of major neonatal morbidities, including necrotizing enterocolitis, retinopathy of prematurity, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, and intraventricular hemorrhage, as well as death. The primary outcome was measured within the entire period of neonatal intensive care unit stay up to 90 days after randomization. The rate of nosocomial infection was a secondary outcome. Results: The mean age of transfused blood was 5.1 (SD, 2.0) days in the fresh RBC group and 14.6 (SD, 8.3) days in the standard group. Among neonates in the fresh RBC group, 99 (52.7%) had the primary outcome compared with 100 (52.9%) in the standard RBC group (relative risk, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.82-1.21). The rate of clinically suspected infection in the fresh RBC group was 77.7% (n=146) compared with 77.2% (n=146) in the standard RBC group (relative risk, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.90-1.12), and the rate of positive cultures was 67.5% (n=127) in the fresh RBC group compared with 64.0% (n=121) in the standard RBC group (relative risk, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.91-1.22). Conclusion: In this trial, the use of fresh RBCs compared with standard blood bank practice did not improve outcomes in premature, very low-birth-weight infants requiring a transfusion. Trial Registration: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00326924; Current Controlled Trials Identifier: ISRCTN65939658. ©2012 American Medical Association. All rights reserved

Effect of sirolimus on malignancy and survival after kidney transplantation: systematic review and meta-analysis of individual patient data

Objective To examine risk of malignancy and death in patients with kidney transplant who receive the immunosuppressive drug sirolimus.Design Systematic review and meta-analysis of individual patient data.Data sources Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials from inception to March 2013.Eligibility Randomized controlled trials comparing immunosuppressive regimens with and without sirolimus in recipients of kidney or combined pancreatic and renal transplant for which the author was willing to provide individual patient level data. Two reviewers independently screened titles/abstracts and full text reports of potentially eligible trials to identify studies for inclusion. All eligible trials reported data on malignancy or survival.Results the search yielded 2365 unique citations. Patient level data were available from 5876 patients from 21 randomized trials. Sirolimus was associated with a 40% reduction in the risk of malignancy (adjusted hazard ratio 0.60, 95% confidence interval 0.39 to 0.93) and a 56% reduction in the risk of non-melanoma skin cancer (0.44, 0.30 to 0.63) compared with controls. the most pronounced effect was seen in patients who converted to sirolimus from an established immunosuppressive regimen, resulting in a reduction in risk of malignancy (0.34, 0.28 to 0.41), non-melanoma skin cancer (0.32, 0.24 to 0.42), and other cancers (0.52, 0.38 to 0.69). Sirolimus was associated with an increased risk of death (1.43, 1.21 to 1.71) compared with controls.Conclusions Sirolimus was associated with a reduction in the risk of malignancy and non-melanoma skin cancer in transplant recipients. the benefit was most pronounced in patients who converted from an established immunosuppressive regimen to sirolimus. Given the risk of mortality, however, the use of this drug does not seem warranted for most patients with kidney transplant. Further research is needed to determine if different populations, such as those at high risk of cancer, might benefit from sirolimus.PfizerOttawa Hosp, Res Inst, Ottawa, ON K1H 7W9, CanadaUniv Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, CanadaCairo Univ, Cairo Kidney Ctr, Cairo, EgyptLimites Med Res, Vacallo, SwitzerlandUniv Manitoba, Dept Pediat & Childs Hlth, Winnipeg, MB, CanadaLund Univ, Dept Nephrol & Transplantat, Malmo, SwedenUniversidade Federal de São Paulo, Hosp Rim & Hipertensao, São Paulo, BrazilAddenbrookes Hosp, Dept Renal Med, Cambridge, EnglandNorthwestern Univ, Feinberg Sch Med, Chicago, IL 60611 USAMaastricht Univ, Med Ctr, Maastricht, NetherlandsSt Louis Hosp, Dept Nephrol, Paris, FranceHosp JW Goethe, Div Nephrol, Frankfurt, GermanyUniv Munich, Dept Surg, Munich, GermanyGoethe Univ Frankfurt, JW Goethe Clin, Clin Dermatol Venerol & Allergol, Frankfurt, GermanyInst Klin Expt Med, Dept Nephrol, Prague, Czech RepublicUniv Cambridge, Addenbrookes Hosp, Dept Surg, NIHR Cambridge Biomed Res Ctr, Cambridge CB2 2QQ, EnglandUniversidade Federal de São Paulo, Hosp Rim & Hipertensao, São Paulo, BrazilWeb of Scienc

The effectiveness, acceptability and cost-effectiveness of psychosocial interventions for maltreated children and adolescents: an evidence synthesis.

BACKGROUND: Child maltreatment is a substantial social problem that affects large numbers of children and young people in the UK, resulting in a range of significant short- and long-term psychosocial problems. OBJECTIVES: To synthesise evidence of the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and acceptability of interventions addressing the adverse consequences of child maltreatment. STUDY DESIGN: For effectiveness, we included any controlled study. Other study designs were considered for economic decision modelling. For acceptability, we included any study that asked participants for their views. PARTICIPANTS: Children and young people up to 24 years 11 months, who had experienced maltreatment before the age of 17 years 11 months. INTERVENTIONS: Any psychosocial intervention provided in any setting aiming to address the consequences of maltreatment. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Psychological distress [particularly post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression and anxiety, and self-harm], behaviour, social functioning, quality of life and acceptability. METHODS: Young Persons and Professional Advisory Groups guided the project, which was conducted in accordance with Cochrane Collaboration and NHS Centre for Reviews and Dissemination guidance. Departures from the published protocol were recorded and explained. Meta-analyses and cost-effectiveness analyses of available data were undertaken where possible. RESULTS: We identified 198 effectiveness studies (including 62 randomised trials); six economic evaluations (five using trial data and one decision-analytic model); and 73 studies investigating treatment acceptability. Pooled data on cognitive-behavioural therapy (CBT) for sexual abuse suggested post-treatment reductions in PTSD [standardised mean difference (SMD) -0.44 (95% CI -4.43 to -1.53)], depression [mean difference -2.83 (95% CI -4.53 to -1.13)] and anxiety [SMD -0.23 (95% CI -0.03 to -0.42)]. No differences were observed for post-treatment sexualised behaviour, externalising behaviour, behaviour management skills of parents, or parental support to the child. Findings from attachment-focused interventions suggested improvements in secure attachment [odds ratio 0.14 (95% CI 0.03 to 0.70)] and reductions in disorganised behaviour [SMD 0.23 (95% CI 0.13 to 0.42)], but no differences in avoidant attachment or externalising behaviour. Few studies addressed the role of caregivers, or the impact of the therapist-child relationship. Economic evaluations suffered methodological limitations and provided conflicting results. As a result, decision-analytic modelling was not possible, but cost-effectiveness analysis using effectiveness data from meta-analyses was undertaken for the most promising intervention: CBT for sexual abuse. Analyses of the cost-effectiveness of CBT were limited by the lack of cost data beyond the cost of CBT itself. CONCLUSIONS: It is not possible to draw firm conclusions about which interventions are effective for children with different maltreatment profiles, which are of no benefit or are harmful, and which factors encourage people to seek therapy, accept the offer of therapy and actively engage with therapy. Little is known about the cost-effectiveness of alternative interventions. LIMITATIONS: Studies were largely conducted outside the UK. The heterogeneity of outcomes and measures seriously impacted on the ability to conduct meta-analyses. FUTURE WORK: Studies are needed that assess the effectiveness of interventions within a UK context, which address the wider effects of maltreatment, as well as specific clinical outcomes. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42013003889. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme

The development of a HAMstring InjuRy (HAMIR) index to mitigate injury risk through innovative imaging, biomechanics, and data analytics : Protocol for an observational cohort study

Background The etiology of hamstring strain injury (HSI) in American football is multi-factorial and understanding these risk factors is paramount to developing predictive models and guiding prevention and rehabilitation strategies. Many player-games are lost due to the lack of a clear understanding of risk factors and the absence of effective methods to minimize re-injury. This paper describes the protocol that will be followed to develop the HAMstring InjuRy (HAMIR) index risk prediction models for HSI and re-injury based on morphological, architectural, biomechanical and clinical factors in National Collegiate Athletic Association Division I collegiate football players. Methods A 3-year, prospective study will be conducted involving collegiate football student-athletes at four institutions. Enrolled participants will complete preseason assessments of eccentric hamstring strength, on-field sprinting biomechanics and muscle–tendon volumes using magnetic-resonance imaging (MRI). Athletic trainers will monitor injuries and exposure for the duration of the study. Participants who sustain an HSI will undergo a clinical assessment at the time of injury along with MRI examinations. Following completion of structured rehabilitation and return to unrestricted sport participation, clinical assessments, MRI examinations and sprinting biomechanics will be repeated. Injury recurrence will be monitored through a 6-month follow-up period. HAMIR index prediction models for index HSI injury and re-injury will be constructed. Discussion The most appropriate strategies for reducing risk of HSI are likely multi-factorial and depend on risk factors unique to each athlete. This study will be the largest-of-its-kind (1200 player-years) to gather detailed information on index and recurrent HSI, and will be the first study to simultaneously investigate the effect of morphological, biomechanical and clinical variables on risk of HSI in collegiate football athletes. The quantitative HAMIR index will be formulated to identify an athlete’s propensity for HSI, and more importantly, identify targets for injury mitigation, thereby reducing the global burden of HSI in high-level American football players. Trial Registration The trial is prospectively registered on ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT05343052; April 22, 2022)

Evidence-based Kernels: Fundamental Units of Behavioral Influence

This paper describes evidence-based kernels, fundamental units of behavioral influence that appear to underlie effective prevention and treatment for children, adults, and families. A kernel is a behavior–influence procedure shown through experimental analysis to affect a specific behavior and that is indivisible in the sense that removing any of its components would render it inert. Existing evidence shows that a variety of kernels can influence behavior in context, and some evidence suggests that frequent use or sufficient use of some kernels may produce longer lasting behavioral shifts. The analysis of kernels could contribute to an empirically based theory of behavioral influence, augment existing prevention or treatment efforts, facilitate the dissemination of effective prevention and treatment practices, clarify the active ingredients in existing interventions, and contribute to efficiently developing interventions that are more effective. Kernels involve one or more of the following mechanisms of behavior influence: reinforcement, altering antecedents, changing verbal relational responding, or changing physiological states directly. The paper describes 52 of these kernels, and details practical, theoretical, and research implications, including calling for a national database of kernels that influence human behavior

Preparing for a Safety Evaluation of Rotavirus Vaccine Using Health Services Data in Ontario: The Development of a Diagnostic Algorithm for Intussusception, an Estimation of Baseline Incidence and an Evaluation of Methods

In view of the recent implementation of a publicly funded rotavirus vaccination program in Ontario, we undertook studies to help guide the design of a safety evaluation of the vaccine with respect to intussusception. We used administrative data to develop and validate an algorithm for intussusception, and quantified its incidence in Ontario. We also conducted a systematic review of study designs used to evaluate post-licensure vaccine safety, and discussed each design’s strengths and weaknesses. The validated algorithm for intussusception was sensitive (89.3%) and highly specific (>99.9%). We observed the highest mean incidence (34 / 100,000) in males <1 year of age. While other designs are more robust, the inability to ascertain individual vaccination status from Ontario’s administrative data dictated our selection of an ecological design for safety evaluation of rotavirus vaccine. Data assimilated from this thesis represent a critical step toward the timely evaluation of rotavirus vaccine safety in Ontario

Effects of sex and birth weight on non-specific health services use following whole-cell pertussis vaccination: a self-controlled case series analysis

Previous studies from low-resource countries have highlighted concerns surrounding non-specific effects of whole-cell pertussis vaccination, particularly in females. We sought to examine the effects of sex and birth weight on health services utilization following first exposure to whole-cell pertussis vaccine. Using a self-controlled case series design and by calculating relative incidence ratios (RIRs), we compared the relative incidence of emergency department visits and/or hospital admissions between sexes and between birth weight quintiles. Females had a higher relative incidence of events following vaccination compared to males (RIR = 1.13, 95% CI: 0.99, 1.30), which persisted after adjustment for birth weight (RIR = 1.12, 95% CI: 0.97, 1.28). We also observed a trend of increasing relative incidence of events over decreasing quintiles of birth weight; infants in the lowest quintile had a 26% higher relative event rate compared to the highest quintile, which was robust to adjustment for sex (Unadjusted RIR = 1.26, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.56; Adjusted RIR = 1.23, 95% CI: 0.99, 1.53). The risk of all-cause health services utilization immediately following vaccination, was elevated in female infants and infants having lower birth weight. Further study is warranted to determine if vaccine dosing should take infant weight into account