Reciclagem de precipitação na bacia amazônica: O papel do transporte de umidade e da evapotranspiração da superfície

The objective of this study is to evaluate the distribution of water budget components and precipitation recycling in the Amazon basin addressing the physical mechanisms involved in the recycling process. In general, the Amazon basin acts as a sink for atmospheric moisture, receiving water vapor transported from the ocean and from precipitation recycled from evapotranspiration by the forest. At the regional scale, the Amazon basin is an important source of water vapor, contributing to precipitation in other remote locations of South America. Here we show, on average, 20% of precipitation in the Amazon basin is recycled, varying between 15% in the northern portion and 40% in the southern portion. Thus, approximately 20% of the total rainfall in the basin is derived from local evapotranspiration processes indicating that the local contribution to the total precipitation represents a significant contribution to the regional water budget and plays an important role in the Amazon hydrological cycle. However, the variability and changes in the climate system due to both natural and anthropogenic forcings (such as the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and changes in land use and land cover – deforestation) can affect the precipitation recycling and regional hydrologic cycle. © 2017, Sociedade Brasileira de Meteorologia. All rights reserved

Worldwide trends in hypertension prevalence and progress in treatment and control from 1990 to 2019: a pooled analysis of 1201 population-representative studies with 104 million participants

Background Hypertension can be detected at the primary health-care level and low-cost treatments can effectively control hypertension. We aimed to measure the prevalence of hypertension and progress in its detection, treatment, and control from 1990 to 2019 for 200 countries and territories. Methods We used data from 1990 to 2019 on people aged 30–79 years from population-representative studies with measurement of blood pressure and data on blood pressure treatment. We defined hypertension as having systolic blood pressure 140 mm Hg or greater, diastolic blood pressure 90 mm Hg or greater, or taking medication for hypertension. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the prevalence of hypertension and the proportion of people with hypertension who had a previous diagnosis (detection), who were taking medication for hypertension (treatment), and whose hypertension was controlled to below 140/90 mm Hg (control). The model allowed for trends over time to be non-linear and to vary by age. Findings The number of people aged 30–79 years with hypertension doubled from 1990 to 2019, from 331 (95% credible interval 306–359) million women and 317 (292–344) million men in 1990 to 626 (584–668) million women and 652 (604–698) million men in 2019, despite stable global age-standardised prevalence. In 2019, age-standardised hypertension prevalence was lowest in Canada and Peru for both men and women; in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and some countries in western Europe including Switzerland, Spain, and the UK for women; and in several low-income and middle-income countries such as Eritrea, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Solomon Islands for men. Hypertension prevalence surpassed 50% for women in two countries and men in nine countries, in central and eastern Europe, central Asia, Oceania, and Latin America. Globally, 59% (55–62) of women and 49% (46–52) of men with hypertension reported a previous diagnosis of hypertension in 2019, and 47% (43–51) of women and 38% (35–41) of men were treated. Control rates among people with hypertension in 2019 were 23% (20–27) for women and 18% (16–21) for men. In 2019, treatment and control rates were highest in South Korea, Canada, and Iceland (treatment >70%; control >50%), followed by the USA, Costa Rica, Germany, Portugal, and Taiwan. Treatment rates were less than 25% for women and less than 20% for men in Nepal, Indonesia, and some countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Control rates were below 10% for women and men in these countries and for men in some countries in north Africa, central and south Asia, and eastern Europe. Treatment and control rates have improved in most countries since 1990, but we found little change in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Improvements were largest in high-income countries, central Europe, and some upper-middle-income and recently high-income countries including Costa Rica, Taiwan, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Brazil, Chile, Turkey, and Iran. Interpretation Improvements in the detection, treatment, and control of hypertension have varied substantially across countries, with some middle-income countries now outperforming most high-income nations. The dual approach of reducing hypertension prevalence through primary prevention and enhancing its treatment and control is achievable not only in high-income countries but also in low-income and middle-income settings

Heterogeneous contributions of change in population distribution of body mass index to change in obesity and underweight NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC)

From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape of the distribution. In East and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the underweight tail of the BMI distribution was left behind as the distribution shifted. There is a need for policies that address all forms of malnutrition by making healthy foods accessible and affordable, while restricting unhealthy foods through fiscal and regulatory restrictions

Preenchimento de Falhas em Dados de Correlação de Anomalia do Geopotencial (500 hpa)

Esta pesquisa trata sobre a imputação múltipla de dados faltantes (missing data) do da correlação de anomalia do geopotencial em 500 hPa. A imputação múltipla ocorreu via método da média preditiva ou Preditive Mean Matching (PMM). Os resultados permitiram inferir que a imputação dos dados teve uma qualidade adequada sendo que a série reconstruída de dados da correlação de anomalia da variável geopotencial em 500 hPa do modelo global possui em média 14.8% mais dados que a série original. O processo de imputação múltipla por PMM preencheu os dados ausentes com uma qualidade adequada, visto que há um forte coeficiente de correlação de Pearson (> 0.99), entre a série formada com dados originais e a série formada com dados recuperados, para todos os horários de previsão mostrados

Comparacao entre os perfis de radiacao solar dentro de ambiente de floresta para dias com diferentes coberturas de nebulosidade

During the micrometeorological experiment carried out during the WETAMC Campaign (from 26/01 to 10/03) measurements of solar radiation were made on a tropical forest environment, at Biological Reserve of Jaru, RO (10 \ub0 05’ S; 61 \ub0 56’ W). Short wave radiation flux were collected using Kipp & Zonen pyranometers and photosintetically active radiation flux (PAR), using LICOR quantum sensors, on the top of a 60 m tower, and at 5 levels (35, 30, 25, 15, 10 and 5 meters) inside the canopy, by a set of 12 pyranometers and 12 quantum sensors, distributed on three sides (South, East and West) of the tower. The behaviors of incident short wave radiation and PAR were studied along the vertical profile for days with different cloud cover. Results showed that, on average, the solar radiation did not present substantial percentile differences from one level to another, when comparing days with different cloud cover. In other words, independently on day’s cloudiness condition, the percentile profile of solar radiation inside the forest presented approximately the same percentile extinction coefficient.Pages: 2447-245

Monitoramento da zona de convergencia intertropical (ZCIT) atraves de dados de temperatura de brilho

The ITCZ position was analyzed for a period of 16 months (November 1998 to March 2000) over a South American sector using infrared imagery of GOES-8 satellite. A monthly average of brightness temperature was used as parameter. It was found that ITCZ mean positioning was about 1 S for December 1998, 1 S - 5 N in January 1999, 3 S - 5 N during February - March 1999 and about 2 S in April 1999. From December 1999 to February 2000, the mean position was around 0. It is shown a diagram of the period in analysis. The method allows to identify fairly well the positioning of ITCZ, and can be used for continuous monitoring of its displacements

Analises preliminares das observações versus as previsões de sistemas frontais obtidas através dos modelos opercionais de previsao numerica de tempo global (T062) e regional (ETA) do CPTEC/INPE

A reliable weather forecast using mathematical models is already a reality since the last decade. However, the degree of reliability of such models when predicting the position of a synoptic system, with time evolution, still deserves attention. Frontal Systems are part of this contexto An observational study using Frontal Systems that occurred in the first three months of 2002 were carried out (summer season). This work consists in evaluating the performance of operational models of the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC) in the context of prediction of Frontal Systems positioning. The main objective is to inform meteorologists who work with weather forecasting and the society as a whole about the model's reliability for certain forecast times. The preliminary results show that in general, for the time period studied, the model which is initialized with the 12Z analysis has a greater accuracy when compared with the model initialized with the OOZ analysis. AIso it is concluded that the regional model provides a better performance than the global model, in the context ofprediction ofFrontal Systems positioning.Pages: 4035-403

Measurements of solar and terrestrial radiation above and inside the Rebio-Jaru Amazonian forest during the LBA Wet Season Campaign

Data of global solar radiation, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and net radiation above and inside of the forest canopy, and terrestrial (long wave) radiation above the canopy, were measured on a 60m height micrometeorological tower built at the Amazonian Forest Rebio-Jaru Reserve (10°04' S; 61°56' W). These measurements were made during the LBA (Large Scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment in Amazônia) wet season campaign, from January to March 1999, in the Brazilian State of Rondônia. A set of four pyranometers, two net radiometers and two pyrgeometers was installed on the top of the tower to obtain measurements of all components of the surface radiation budget: incoming and reflected solar radiation, incoming long wave radiation from the atmosphere and upward long wave radiation from the surface, and net radiation. Two quantum sensors measured the incoming and reflected PAR radiation above the canopy. To determine the variation of net radiation, PAR and solar radiation inside the canopy, three profiles (westward, southward and eastward of the tower) were taken at four levels with net radiometers, quantum sensors and pyranometers, respectively. During the last ten days of the field campaign, radiometers were moved to twelve regularly distributed points near the forest ground around the tower, in order to determine the net radiation, PAR and solar radiation reaching the forest ground. Preliminary results indicate that a higher percentage of incoming solar radiation at the top reaches the Rebio-Jaru forest ground when compared with other Amazonian forest sites, such as Reserva Ducke in Manaus and Tucuruí, in the State of Amazonas. On the other hand, a difference of about ten percent in the net radiation, around midday, was observed by two sensors installed eight meters apart from each other, at the height of twenty meters above the canopy

Avaliacao da radiacao solar e terrestre nos modelos opercaionais de previsão numerica de tempo do CPTEC/INPE para area de floresta tropical umida

Este trabalho consiste em verificar o desempenho das parametrizações de radiação dos modelos operacionais de previsão numérica de tempo global e de área limitada (regional) do Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos-CPTEC do Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais do Brasil (CPTEC/INPE), com resoluções horizontais aproximadas de 200 km com 28 níveis e 40 km com 38 níveis, respectivamente, com o objetivo de avaliar a conveniência da utilização desses modelos em simulações dos impactos das modificações da cobertura vegetal da Amazônia. Comparou-se as componentes do balanço de radiação à superfície (radiação solar incidente, S¯; radiação solar refletida, S­; radiação atmosférica incidente, L¯; radiação terrestre emitida L­; e saldo de radiação, RN) observadas, versus as obtidas via modelagem. Os dados utilizados são referentes aos meses de abril/99 (estação chuvosa) e setembro/99 (seca), estes dados vêm sendo monitorados continuamente, em vários sítios experimentais na Amazônia, no âmbito do Experimento de Grande Escala da Biosfera-Atmosfera na Amazônia (LBA). Os resultados mostraram que o balanço de radiação diário na estação chuvosa para as primeiras previsões foi subestimado pelo modelo global e superestimado em 9% pelo regional, no entanto, ambos os modelos superestimaram o balanço diário de radiação na estação seca

Reciclagem de Precipitação na Bacia Amazônica: O Papel do Transporte de Umidade e da Evapotranspiração da Superfície

Resumo O objetivo desse trabalho é avaliar a distribuição dos componentes do balanço de água e da reciclagem de precipitação na bacia amazônica, abordando os mecanismos físicos associados ao processo de reciclagem. De forma geral, a bacia amazônica se comporta como um sumidouro de umidade da atmosfera, recebendo vapor d'água tanto do transporte de origem oceânica quanto da evaportranspiração da floresta por meio do processo de reciclagem de precipitação. Em escala regional, a Amazônia representa uma importante fonte de umidade para outras regiões da América do Sul, contribuindo para o regime da precipitação em outras áreas do continente. Na média, a reciclagem de precipitação é da ordem de 20% na bacia amazônica, com valores variando entre 15% na porção norte e 40% na porção sul. Dessa forma, do total da precipitação na bacia, aproximadamente, 20% é decorrente do processo de evapotranspiração local; indicando que, a contribuição local para a precipitação total representa um percentual significativo no balanço de água regional e desempenha um importante papel no ciclo hidrológico amazônico. Entretanto, as variabilidades e mudanças no sistema climático devido tanto às variações naturais quanto antropogênicas (aumento na emissão de gases estufa e desflorestamento) podem afetar a reciclagem e o ciclo hdrológico regional