Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants

BACKGROUND: One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. METHODS: We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence—defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7·0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs—in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. FINDINGS: We used data from 751 studies including 4 372 000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4·3% (95% credible interval 2·4–7·0) in 1980 to 9·0% (7·2–11·1) in 2014 in men, and from 5·0% (2·9–7·9) to 7·9% (6·4–9·7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28·5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39·7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31·8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target. INTERPRETATION: Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust

Combined measurement of differential and total cross sections in the H → γγ and the H → ZZ* → 4ℓ decay channels at s=13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A combined measurement of differential and inclusive total cross sections of Higgs boson production is performed using 36.1 fb−1 of 13 TeV proton–proton collision data produced by the LHC and recorded by the ATLAS detector in 2015 and 2016. Cross sections are obtained from measured H→γγ and H→ZZ*(→4ℓ event yields, which are combined taking into account detector efficiencies, resolution, acceptances and branching fractions. The total Higgs boson production cross section is measured to be 57.0−5.9 +6.0 (stat.) −3.3 +4.0 (syst.) pb, in agreement with the Standard Model prediction. Differential cross-section measurements are presented for the Higgs boson transverse momentum distribution, Higgs boson rapidity, number of jets produced together with the Higgs boson, and the transverse momentum of the leading jet. The results from the two decay channels are found to be compatible, and their combination agrees with the Standard Model predictions

Measurement of the t¯tZ and t¯tW cross sections in proton-proton collisions at √s=13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A measurement of the associated production of a top-quark pair (t¯t) with a vector boson (W, Z) in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV is presented, using 36.1  fb−1 of integrated luminosity collected by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. Events are selected in channels with two same- or opposite-sign leptons (electrons or muons), three leptons or four leptons, and each channel is further divided into multiple regions to maximize the sensitivity of the measurement. The t¯tZ and t¯tW production cross sections are simultaneously measured using a combined fit to all regions. The best-fit values of the production cross sections are σt¯tZ=0.95±0.08stat±0.10syst pb and σt¯tW=0.87±0.13stat±0.14syst pb in agreement with the Standard Model predictions. The measurement of the t¯tZ cross section is used to set constraints on effective field theory operators which modify the t¯tZ vertex

Performance of missing transverse momentum reconstruction with the ATLAS detector using proton–proton collisions at √s = 13 TeV

The performance of the missing transverse momentum (EmissT) reconstruction with the ATLAS detector is evaluated using data collected in proton–proton collisions at the LHC at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV in 2015. To reconstruct EmissT, fully calibrated electrons, muons, photons, hadronically decaying τ -leptons, and jets reconstructed from calorimeter energy deposits and charged-particle tracks are used. These are combined with the soft hadronic activity measured by reconstructed charged-particle tracks not associated with the hard objects. Possible double counting of contributions from reconstructed charged-particle tracks from the inner detector, energy deposits in the calorimeter, and reconstructed muons from the muon spectrometer is avoided by applying a signal ambiguity resolution procedure which rejects already used signals when combining the various EmissT contributions. The individual terms as well as the overall reconstructed EmissT are evaluated with various performance metrics for scale (linearity), resolution, and sensitivity to the data-taking conditions. The method developed to determine the systematic uncertainties of the EmissT scale and resolution is discussed. Results are shown based on the full 2015 data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3.2 fb−1

Search for High-Mass Resonances Decaying to τν in pp Collisions at √s=13 TeV with the ATLAS Detector

A search for high-mass resonances decaying to τν using proton-proton collisions at √s=13 TeV produced by the Large Hadron Collider is presented. Only τ-lepton decays with hadrons in the final state are considered. The data were recorded with the ATLAS detector and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 36.1 fb−1. No statistically significant excess above the standard model expectation is observed; model-independent upper limits are set on the visible τν production cross section. Heavy W′ bosons with masses less than 3.7 TeV in the sequential standard model and masses less than 2.2–3.8 TeV depending on the coupling in the nonuniversal G(221) model are excluded at the 95% credibility level

Properties of jet fragmentation using charged particles measured with the ATLAS detector in pp collisions at root s=13 TeV

This paper presents a measurement of quantities related to the formation of jets from high-energy quarks and gluons (fragmentation). Jets with transverse momentum 100 GeV 500 MeV and |η| < 2.5 are used to probe the detailed structure of the jet. The fragmentation properties of the more forward and the more central of the two leading jets from each event are studied. The data are unfolded to correct for detector resolution and acceptance effects. Comparisons with parton shower Monte Carlo generators indicate that existing models provide a reasonable description of the data across a wide range of phase space, but there are also significant differences. Furthermore, the data are interpreted in the context of quark- and gluon-initiated jets by exploiting the rapidity dependence of the jet flavor fraction. A first measurement of the charged-particle multiplicity using model-independent jet labels (topic modeling) provides a promising alternative to traditional quark and gluon extractions using input from simulation. The simulations provide a reasonable description of the quark-like data across the jet Pt range presented in -this measurement, but the gluon-like data have systematically fewer charged particles than the simulation

Measurement of VH, H → b b ¯ production as a function of the vector-boson transverse momentum in 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

Cross-sections of associated production of a Higgs boson decaying into bottom-quark pairs and an electroweak gauge boson, W or Z, decaying into leptons are measured as a function of the gauge boson transverse momentum. The measurements are performed in kinematic fiducial volumes defined in the `simplified template cross-section' framework. The results are obtained using 79.8 fb-1 of proton-proton collisions recorded by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. All measurements are found to be in agreement with the Standard Model predictions, and limits are set on the parameters of an effective Lagrangian sensitive to modifications of the Higgs boson couplings to the electroweak gauge bosons

Search for displaced vertices of oppositely charged leptons from decays of long-lived particles in pp collisions at s=13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for long-lived particles decaying into an oppositely charged lepton pair, μμ, ee, or eμ, is presented using 32.8fb−1 of pp collision data collected at s=13 TeV by the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Candidate leptons are required to form a vertex, within the inner tracking volume of ATLAS, displaced from the primary pp interaction region. No lepton pairs with an invariant mass greater than 12 GeV are observed, consistent with the background expectations derived from data. The detection efficiencies for generic resonances with lifetimes (cτ) of 100–1000 mm decaying into a dilepton pair with masses between 0.1–1.0 TeV are presented as a function of pT and decay radius of the resonances to allow the extraction of upper limits on the cross sections for theoretical models. The result is also interpreted in a supersymmetric model in which the lightest neutralino, produced via squark–antisquark production, decays into ℓ+ℓ′−ν (ℓ,ℓ′=e, μ) with a finite lifetime due to the presence of R-parity violating couplings. Cross-section limits are presented for specific squark and neutralino masses. For a 700 GeV squark, neutralinos with masses of 50–500 GeV and mean proper lifetimes corresponding to cτ values between 1 mm to 6 m are excluded. For a 1.6 TeV squark, cτ values between 3 mm to 1 m are excluded for 1.3 TeV neutralinos

Search for heavy diboson resonances in semileptonic final states in pp collisions at s√=13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper reports on a search for heavy resonances decaying into WW, ZZ or WZ using proton–proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy of s√=13 TeV. The data, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb1, were recorded with the ATLAS detector from 2015 to 2018 at the Large Hadron Collider. The search is performed for final states in which one W or Z boson decays leptonically, and the other W boson or Z boson decays hadronically. The data are found to be described well by expected backgrounds. Upper bounds on the production cross sections of heavy scalar, vector or tensor resonances are derived in the mass range 300–5000 GeV within the context of Standard Model extensions with warped extra dimensions or including a heavy vector triplet. Production through gluon–gluon fusion, Drell–Yan or vector-boson fusion are considered, depending on the assumed model

Search for flavour-changing neutral current top-quark decays t → qZ in proton-proton collisions at \sqrt{s} = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for flavour-changing neutral-current processes in top-quark decays is presented. Data collected with the ATLAS detector from proton-proton collisions at the Large Hadron Collider at a centre-of-mass energy of s√=13 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 36.1 fb−1, are analysed. The search is performed using top-quark pair events, with one top quark decaying through the t → qZ (q = u, c) flavour-changing neutral-current channel, and the other through the dominant Standard Model mode t → bW. Only Z boson decays into charged leptons and leptonic W boson decays are considered as signal. Consequently, the final-state topology is characterized by the presence of three isolated charged leptons (electrons or muons), at least two jets, one of the jets originating from a b-quark, and missing transverse momentum from the undetected neutrino. The data are consistent with Standard Model background contributions, and at 95% confidence level the search sets observed (expected) upper limits of 1.7 × 10−4 (2.4 × 10−4) on the t → uZ branching ratio and 2.4 × 10−4 (3.2 × 10−4) on the t → cZ branching ratio, constituting the most stringent limits to date. Open image in new windo