Viticulture adaptation to global warming: Modelling gas exchange, water status and leaf temperature to probe for practices manipulating water supply, canopy reflectance and radiation load

Associated with climate change, the frequency, duration, and intensity of heatwaves are increasing in most of the key wine regions worldwide. Depending on timing, intensity, and duration, heatwaves can impact grapevine yield and berry composition, with implications for wine quality. To overcome these negative effects, two types of mitigation practices have been proposed (i) to enhance transpiration and (ii) to reduce the radiation load on the canopy. Here we use a biophysical model to quantify the impact of these practices on canopy gas exchange, vine water status, and leaf temperature (Tl). Model validation was performed in a commercial vineyard. Modelled Tl from 14 to 43 °C, and transpiration, from 0.1 to 5.4 mm d−1, aligned around the identity line with measurements in field-grown vines; the RMSD was 2.6 ºC for temperature and 0.96 mm day−1 for transpiration. Trellis system and row orientation modulate Tl. A sprawling single wire trellis with an EW orientation maintained the canopy around 1ºC cooler than a Vertical Shoot Positioned canopy with NS for the same range of total fraction of soil available water (TFAW). Although irrigation before a heatwave is a recommended practice, maximum transpiration can be sustained even when TFAW is reduced, limiting the heat dampening effect of irrigation. Alternatively, canopy cooling can be achieved through Kaolin application, the installation of shade cloth placement, or canopy trimming. Shade cloth produced a greater cooling than Kaolin in all the simulated scenarios; however, Tl differences between them varied. Trimming reduced Tl from 2 ºC to almost 8 ºC compared to its non-trimmed counterpart. Our analysis presents new insights to design heat wave mitigation strategies and supports agronomically meaningful definitions of heat waves that include not only temperature, but also wind, VPD, and radiation load as these factors influence crop physiology under heat stress.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Comportamento vegetativo e produtivo da videira e composição da uva em São Joaquim, Santa Catarina

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar o comportamento vegetativo e produtivo das variedades de videira Cabernet Sauvignon, Merlot e Sauvignon Blanc, e a composição da uva em São Joaquim, Santa Catarina. Foram avaliadas plantas de um vinhedo comercial, cultivado em espaldeira, a 1.293 m de altitude, durante os ciclos fenológicos 2005/2006 e 2006/2007. As variáveis meteorológicas, a fenologia, o desenvolvimento do dossel e a composição da uva na colheita foram comparados entre os ciclos. As temperaturas mais amenas influenciaram o ciclo fenológico das variedades Cabernet Sauvignon, Merlot e Sauvignon Blanc, que é mais longo e tardio que nas outras regiões vitícolas do Brasil. Houve influência significativa da precipitação pluvial sobre a maturação da uva, no ciclo 2006/2007. Os índices de desenvolvimento indicam a necessidade de ajuste no manejo do dossel para um maior equilíbrio entre o crescimento vegetativo e a produção. As variedades Cabernet Sauvignon, Merlot e Sauvignon Blanc apresentam elevada qualidade da uva no momento da colheita, sendo adequadas ao cultivo em São Joaquim, SC

Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17 : analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea. Methods We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates. Findings The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1–65·8), 17·4% (7·7–28·4), and 59·5% (34·2–86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage. Interpretation By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health

Risk profiles and one-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in India: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF Registry.

BACKGROUND: The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) is an ongoing prospective noninterventional registry, which is providing important information on the baseline characteristics, treatment patterns, and 1-year outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This report describes data from Indian patients recruited in this registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 52,014 patients with newly diagnosed AF were enrolled globally; of these, 1388 patients were recruited from 26 sites within India (2012-2016). In India, the mean age was 65.8 years at diagnosis of NVAF. Hypertension was the most prevalent risk factor for AF, present in 68.5% of patients from India and in 76.3% of patients globally (P < 0.001). Diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD) were prevalent in 36.2% and 28.1% of patients as compared with global prevalence of 22.2% and 21.6%, respectively (P < 0.001 for both). Antiplatelet therapy was the most common antithrombotic treatment in India. With increasing stroke risk, however, patients were more likely to receive oral anticoagulant therapy [mainly vitamin K antagonist (VKA)], but average international normalized ratio (INR) was lower among Indian patients [median INR value 1.6 (interquartile range {IQR}: 1.3-2.3) versus 2.3 (IQR 1.8-2.8) (P < 0.001)]. Compared with other countries, patients from India had markedly higher rates of all-cause mortality [7.68 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval 6.32-9.35) vs 4.34 (4.16-4.53), P < 0.0001], while rates of stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding were lower after 1 year of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Compared to previously published registries from India, the GARFIELD-AF registry describes clinical profiles and outcomes in Indian patients with AF of a different etiology. The registry data show that compared to the rest of the world, Indian AF patients are younger in age and have more diabetes and CAD. Patients with a higher stroke risk are more likely to receive anticoagulation therapy with VKA but are underdosed compared with the global average in the GARFIELD-AF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362

Public health utility of cause of death data: applying empirical algorithms to improve data quality

Background: Accurate, comprehensive, cause-specific mortality estimates are crucial for informing public health decision making worldwide. Incorrectly or vaguely assigned deaths, defined as garbage-coded deaths, mask the true cause distribution. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study has developed methods to create comparable, timely, cause-specific mortality estimates; an impactful data processing method is the reallocation of garbage-coded deaths to a plausible underlying cause of death. We identify the pattern of garbage-coded deaths in the world and present the methods used to determine their redistribution to generate more plausible cause of death assignments. Methods: We describe the methods developed for the GBD 2019 study and subsequent iterations to redistribute garbage-coded deaths in vital registration data to plausible underlying causes. These methods include analysis of multiple cause data, negative correlation, impairment, and proportional redistribution. We classify garbage codes into classes according to the level of specificity of the reported cause of death (CoD) and capture trends in the global pattern of proportion of garbage-coded deaths, disaggregated by these classes, and the relationship between this proportion and the Socio-Demographic Index. We examine the relative importance of the top four garbage codes by age and sex and demonstrate the impact of redistribution on the annual GBD CoD rankings. Results: The proportion of least-specific (class 1 and 2) garbage-coded deaths ranged from 3.7 of all vital registration deaths to 67.3 in 2015, and the age-standardized proportion had an overall negative association with the Socio-Demographic Index. When broken down by age and sex, the category for unspecified lower respiratory infections was responsible for nearly 30 of garbage-coded deaths in those under 1Â year of age for both sexes, representing the largest proportion of garbage codes for that age group. We show how the cause distribution by number of deaths changes before and after redistribution for four countries: Brazil, the United States, Japan, and France, highlighting the necessity of accounting for garbage-coded deaths in the GBD. Conclusions: We provide a detailed description of redistribution methods developed for CoD data in the GBD; these methods represent an overall improvement in empiricism compared to past reliance on a priori knowledge

Towards a distributed, environment-centered agent framework

Abstract. This paper will discuss the internal architecture for an agent framework called DECAF (Distributed Environment Centered Agent Framework). DE-CAF is a software toolkit for the rapid design, development, and execution of “intelligent ” agents to achieve solutions in complex software systems. From a research community perspective, DECAF provides a modular platform for evaluating and disseminating results in agent architectures, including communication, planning, scheduling, execution monitoring, coordination, diagnosis, and learning. From a user/programmer perspective, DECAF distinguishes itself by removing the focus from the underlying components of agent building such as socket creation, message formatting, and agent communication. Instead, users may quickly prototype agent systems by focusing on the domain-specific parts of the problem via a graphical plan editor, reusable generic behaviors [9], and various supporting middle-agents [10]. This paper will briefly describe the key portions of the DECAF toolkit and as well as some of the internal details of the agent execution framework. While not all of the modules have yet been completely realized, DECAF has already been used for teaching purposes, allowing student teams, initially untutored in agent systems, to quickly build prototype multi-agent information gathering systems.

Advancement of grape maturity: comparison between contrasting cultivars and regions

Background and Aims: As grapegrowers move to adapt to climate change, they need more detailed information on what cultivars to plant and where to plant them. The aims of this study were to understand how different cultivars in different regions are responding to changes in climate, in order to inform future cultivar selections. Methods and Results: Trends in the day of year maturity (DOYM) between 1999 and 2018 were analysed for 23 grape cultivars (covering at least 7 years) and four Victorian vineyard regions against vintage year, seasonal growing degree day (GDDSep–Mar) and Spring Index. In most cases there were significant trends in DOYM advancement as a function of GDDSep–Mar and spring index. Temporal advancement of DOYM was more variable. One cultivar showed a significant advancement at two of three sites and another showed a significant delay. Different cultivars advanced DOYM at significantly different rates at a given site, later ripening cultivars advanced DOYM faster than earlier ripening cultivars and for a cultivar grown across several sites, the DOYM advancement was faster at cooler sites. Conclusions: Grapevine cultivars respond to warming temperature differently and the advancement of grape maturity is predicted to slow as temperature further increases. Significance of the Study: The study showed diversity in the phenological response of cultivars to temperature, which may be utilised to better adapt to climate change