An agent-based model about the effects of fake news on a norovirus outbreak

Background; Concern about health misinformation is longstanding, especially on the Internet. Methods; Using agent-based models, we considered the effects of such misinformation on a norovirus outbreak, and some methods for countering the possible impacts of “good” and “bad” health advice. The work explicitly models spread of physical disease and information (both online and offline) as two separate but interacting processes. The models have multiple stochastic elements; repeat model runs were made to identify parameter values that most consistently produced the desired target baseline scenario. Next, parameters were found that most consistently led to a scenario when outbreak severity was clearly made worse by circulating poor quality disease prevention advice. Strategies to counter “fake” health news were tested. Results; Reducing bad advice to 30% of total information or making at least 30% of people fully resistant to believing in and sharing bad health advice were effective thresholds to counteract the negative impacts of bad advice during a norovirus outbreak. Conclusion: How feasible it is to achieve these targets within communication networks (online and offline) should be explored

Climate change and food security: health impacts in developed countries.

BACKGROUND: Anthropogenic climate change will affect global food production, with uncertain consequences for human health in developed countries. OBJECTIVES: We investigated the potential impact of climate change on food security (nutrition and food safety) and the implications for human health in developed countries. METHODS: Expert input and structured literature searches were conducted and synthesized to produce overall assessments of the likely impacts of climate change on global food production and recommendations for future research and policy changes. RESULTS: Increasing food prices may lower the nutritional quality of dietary intakes, exacerbate obesity, and amplify health inequalities. Altered conditions for food production may result in emerging pathogens, new crop and livestock species, and altered use of pesticides and veterinary medicines, and affect the main transfer mechanisms through which contaminants move from the environment into food. All these have implications for food safety and the nutritional content of food. Climate change mitigation may increase consumption of foods whose production reduces greenhouse gas emissions. Impacts may include reduced red meat consumption (with positive effects on saturated fat, but negative impacts on zinc and iron intake) and reduced winter fruit and vegetable consumption. Developed countries have complex structures in place that may be used to adapt to the food safety consequences of climate change, although their effectiveness will vary between countries, and the ability to respond to nutritional challenges is less certain. CONCLUSIONS: Climate change will have notable impacts upon nutrition and food safety in developed countries, but further research is necessary to accurately quantify these impacts. Uncertainty about future impacts, coupled with evidence that climate change may lead to more variable food quality, emphasizes the need to maintain and strengthen existing structures and policies to regulate food production, monitor food quality and safety, and respond to nutritional and safety issues that arise

Remarkable Capacity for Anaerobic Oxidation of Methane at High Methane Concentration

Anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM), a central process in the carbon cycle of anoxic environments, moderates the release of methane from soils and sediments to water bodies and, ultimately, the atmosphere. The regulation of AOM in the environment remains poorly constrained. Here we quantified AOM and sulfate reduction (SR) rates in diverse deep seafloor samples at in situ pressure and methane concentration and discovered that, in some cases, AOM exceeded SR rates by more than four times when methane concentrations were above 5 mM. Methane concentration also affected other carbon-cycling processes (e.g., carbon assimilation) in addition to SR. These results illustrate that substantial amounts of methane may be oxidized independent of SR under in situ conditions, reshaping our view of the capacity and mechanism of AOM in methane-rich environments, including the deep biosphere, where sulfate availability is considered to limit AOM

The Similarity Hypothesis in General Relativity

Self-similar models are important in general relativity and other fundamental theories. In this paper we shall discuss the ``similarity hypothesis'', which asserts that under a variety of physical circumstances solutions of these theories will naturally evolve to a self-similar form. We will find there is good evidence for this in the context of both spatially homogenous and inhomogeneous cosmological models, although in some cases the self-similar model is only an intermediate attractor. There are also a wide variety of situations, including critical pheneomena, in which spherically symmetric models tend towards self-similarity. However, this does not happen in all cases and it is it is important to understand the prerequisites for the conjecture.Comment: to be submitted to Gen. Rel. Gra

Monte Carlo Methods for Estimating Interfacial Free Energies and Line Tensions

Excess contributions to the free energy due to interfaces occur for many problems encountered in the statistical physics of condensed matter when coexistence between different phases is possible (e.g. wetting phenomena, nucleation, crystal growth, etc.). This article reviews two methods to estimate both interfacial free energies and line tensions by Monte Carlo simulations of simple models, (e.g. the Ising model, a symmetrical binary Lennard-Jones fluid exhibiting a miscibility gap, and a simple Lennard-Jones fluid). One method is based on thermodynamic integration. This method is useful to study flat and inclined interfaces for Ising lattices, allowing also the estimation of line tensions of three-phase contact lines, when the interfaces meet walls (where "surface fields" may act). A generalization to off-lattice systems is described as well. The second method is based on the sampling of the order parameter distribution of the system throughout the two-phase coexistence region of the model. Both the interface free energies of flat interfaces and of (spherical or cylindrical) droplets (or bubbles) can be estimated, including also systems with walls, where sphere-cap shaped wall-attached droplets occur. The curvature-dependence of the interfacial free energy is discussed, and estimates for the line tensions are compared to results from the thermodynamic integration method. Basic limitations of all these methods are critically discussed, and an outlook on other approaches is given

A Model for the Development of the Rhizobial and Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Symbioses in Legumes and Its Use to Understand the Roles of Ethylene in the Establishment of these two Symbioses

We propose a model depicting the development of nodulation and arbuscular mycorrhizae. Both processes are dissected into many steps, using Pisum sativum L. nodulation mutants as a guideline. For nodulation, we distinguish two main developmental programs, one epidermal and one cortical. Whereas Nod factors alone affect the cortical program, bacteria are required to trigger the epidermal events. We propose that the two programs of the rhizobial symbiosis evolved separately and that, over time, they came to function together. The distinction between these two programs does not exist for arbuscular mycorrhizae development despite events occurring in both root tissues. Mutations that affect both symbioses are restricted to the epidermal program. We propose here sites of action and potential roles for ethylene during the formation of the two symbioses with a specific hypothesis for nodule organogenesis. Assuming the epidermis does not make ethylene, the microsymbionts probably first encounter a regulatory level of ethylene at the epidermis–outermost cortical cell layer interface. Depending on the hormone concentrations there, infection will either progress or be blocked. In the former case, ethylene affects the cortex cytoskeleton, allowing reorganization that facilitates infection; in the latter case, ethylene acts on several enzymes that interfere with infection thread growth, causing it to abort. Throughout this review, the difficulty of generalizing the roles of ethylene is emphasized and numerous examples are given to demonstrate the diversity that exists in plants

PAB3D: Its History in the Use of Turbulence Models in the Simulation of Jet and Nozzle Flows

This is a review paper for PAB3D s history in the implementation of turbulence models for simulating jet and nozzle flows. We describe different turbulence models used in the simulation of subsonic and supersonic jet and nozzle flows. The time-averaged simulations use modified linear or nonlinear two-equation models to account for supersonic flow as well as high temperature mixing. Two multiscale-type turbulence models are used for unsteady flow simulations. These models require modifications to the Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations. The first scheme is a hybrid RANS/LES model utilizing the two-equation (k-epsilon) model with a RANS/LES transition function, dependent on grid spacing and the computed turbulence length scale. The second scheme is a modified version of the partially averaged Navier-Stokes (PANS) formulation. All of these models are implemented in the three-dimensional Navier-Stokes code PAB3D. This paper discusses computational methods, code implementation, computed results for a wide range of nozzle configurations at various operating conditions, and comparisons with available experimental data. Very good agreement is shown between the numerical solutions and available experimental data over a wide range of operating conditions

Comportamento vegetativo e produtivo da videira e composição da uva em São Joaquim, Santa Catarina

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar o comportamento vegetativo e produtivo das variedades de videira Cabernet Sauvignon, Merlot e Sauvignon Blanc, e a composição da uva em São Joaquim, Santa Catarina. Foram avaliadas plantas de um vinhedo comercial, cultivado em espaldeira, a 1.293 m de altitude, durante os ciclos fenológicos 2005/2006 e 2006/2007. As variáveis meteorológicas, a fenologia, o desenvolvimento do dossel e a composição da uva na colheita foram comparados entre os ciclos. As temperaturas mais amenas influenciaram o ciclo fenológico das variedades Cabernet Sauvignon, Merlot e Sauvignon Blanc, que é mais longo e tardio que nas outras regiões vitícolas do Brasil. Houve influência significativa da precipitação pluvial sobre a maturação da uva, no ciclo 2006/2007. Os índices de desenvolvimento indicam a necessidade de ajuste no manejo do dossel para um maior equilíbrio entre o crescimento vegetativo e a produção. As variedades Cabernet Sauvignon, Merlot e Sauvignon Blanc apresentam elevada qualidade da uva no momento da colheita, sendo adequadas ao cultivo em São Joaquim, SC