Estimation of uncertainty in flood forecasts - a comparison of methods

The scientific literature has many methods for estimating uncertainty, however, there is a lack of information about the characteristics, merits and limitations of the individual methods, particularly for making decisions in practice. This paper provides an overview of the different uncertainty methods for flood forecasting that are reported in literature, concentrating on two established approaches defined as the ensemble and the statistical approach. Owing to the variety of flood forecasting and warning systems in operation, the question ‘which uncertainty method is most suitable for which application’ is difficult to answer readily. The paper aims to assist practitioners in understanding how to match an uncertainty quantification method to their particular application using two flood forecasting system case studies in Belgium and Canada. These two specific applications of uncertainty estimation from the literature are compared, illustrating statistical and ensemble methods, and indicating the information and output that these two types of methods offer. The advantages, disadvantages and application of the two different types of method are identified. Although there is no one ‘best’ uncertainty method to fit all forecasting systems, this review helps to explain the current commonly used methods from the available literature for the non-specialist

Dietary supplement use among health care professionals enrolled in an online curriculum on herbs and dietary supplements

BACKGROUND: Although many health care professionals (HCPs) in the United States have been educated about and recommend dietary supplements, little is known about their personal use of dietary supplements and factors associated with their use. METHODS: We surveyed HCPs at the point of their enrollment in an on-line course about dietary supplements between September, 2004 and May, 2005. We used multivariable logistic regression to analyze demographic and practice factors associated with use of dietary supplements. RESULTS: Of the 1249 health care professionals surveyed, 81 % reported having used a vitamin, mineral, or other non-herbal dietary supplements in the last week. Use varied by profession with highest rates among nurses (88%), physician assistants or nurse practitioners (84 %) and the lowest rates among pharmacists (66%) and trainees (72%). The most frequently used supplements were multivitamins (60%), calcium (40%), vitamin B (31%), vitamin C (30%), and fish oil (24%). Factors associated with higher supplement use were older age, female, high knowledge of dietary supplements, and discussing dietary supplements with patients. In our adjusted model, nurses were more likely than other professionals to use a multivitamin and students were more likely to use calcium. CONCLUSION: Among HCPs enrolled in an on-line course about dietary supplements, women, older clinicians, those with higher knowledge and those who talk with patients about dietary supplements had higher use of dietary supplements. Additional research is necessary to understand the impact of professionals' personal use of dietary supplements on communication with patients about them

Teaching Creativity in Engineering Courses

Background The ability to engage in a creative process to solve a problem or to design a novel artifact is essential to engineering as a profession. Research indicates a need for curricula that enhance students' creative skills in engineering. Purpose Our purpose was to document current practices in engineering pedagogy with regard to opportunities for students' creative growth by examining learning goals, instructional methods, and assessments focused on cognitive creative skills. Design/Method We conducted a critical case study of engineering pedagogy at a single university with seven engineering courses where instructors stated the goal of fostering creativity. Data included instructor and student interviews, student surveys, and course materials. For qualitative analysis, we used frameworks by Treffinger, Young, Selby, and Shepardson and by Wiggins and McTighe. Results One aspect of creativity, convergent thinking (including analysis and evaluation), was well represented in the engineering courses in our case study. However, instruction on generating ideas and openness to exploring ideas was less often evident. For many of the creative skills, especially those related to divergent thinking and idea exploration, assessments were lacking. Conclusions An analysis of pedagogy focused on goals, instruction, and assessments in the engineering curriculum revealed opportunities for growth in students' creative skill development. Designing assessments that motivate students to improve their creative skills and to become more aware of their own creative process is a key need in engineering pedagogy.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/108079/1/jee20048.pd

An increase in dietary n-3 fatty acids decreases a marker of bone resorption in humans

Human, animal, and in vitro research indicates a beneficial effect of appropriate amounts of omega-3 (n-3) polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) on bone health. This is the first controlled feeding study in humans to evaluate the effect of dietary plant-derived n-3 PUFA on bone turnover, assessed by serum concentrations of N-telopeptides (NTx) and bone-specific alkaline phosphatase (BSAP). Subjects (n = 23) consumed each diet for 6 weeks in a randomized, 3-period crossover design: 1) Average American Diet (AAD; [34% total fat, 13% saturated fatty acids (SFA), 13% monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA), 9% PUFA (7.7% LA, 0.8% ALA)]), 2) Linoleic Acid Diet (LA; [37% total fat, 9% SFA, 12% MUFA, 16% PUFA (12.6% LA, 3.6% ALA)]), and 3) α-Linolenic Acid Diet (ALA; [38% total fat, 8% SFA, 12% MUFA, 17% PUFA (10.5% LA, 6.5% ALA)]). Walnuts and flaxseed oil were the predominant sources of ALA. NTx levels were significantly lower following the ALA diet (13.20 ± 1.21 nM BCE), relative to the AAD (15.59 ± 1.21 nM BCE) (p < 0.05). Mean NTx level following the LA diet was 13.80 ± 1.21 nM BCE. There was no change in levels of BSAP across the three diets. Concentrations of NTx were positively correlated with the pro-inflammatory cytokine TNFα for all three diets. The results indicate that plant sources of dietary n-3 PUFA may have a protective effect on bone metabolism via a decrease in bone resorption in the presence of consistent levels of bone formation

Fracture in the Elderly Multidisciplinary Rehabilitation (FEMuR): study protocol for a phase II randomised feasibility study of a multidisciplinary rehabilitation package following hip fracture

Objective: To conduct a rigorous feasibility study for a future definitive parallel-group randomised controlled trial (RCT) and economic evaluation of an enhanced rehabilitation package for hip fracture.Setting: Recruitment from 3 acute hospitals in North Wales. Intervention delivery in the community.Participants: Older adults (aged ≥65) who received surgical treatment for hip fracture, lived independently prior to fracture, had mental capacity (assessed by clinical team) and received rehabilitation in the North Wales area.Intervention: Remote randomisation to usual care (control) or usual care+enhanced rehabilitation package (intervention), including six additional home-based physiotherapy sessions delivered by a physiotherapist or technical instructor, novel information workbook and goal-setting diary.Primary and secondary outcome measures: Primary: Barthel Activities of Daily Living (BADL). Secondary measures included Nottingham Extended Activities of Daily Living scale (NEADL), EQ-5D, ICECAP capability, a suite of self-efficacy, psychosocial and service-use measures and costs. Outcome measures were assessed at baseline and 3-month follow-up by blinded researchers.Results: 62 participants were recruited, 61 randomised (control 32; intervention 29) and 49 (79%) completed 3-month follow-up. Minimal differences occurred between the 2 groups for most outcomes, including BADL (adjusted mean difference 0.5). The intervention group showed a medium-sized improvement in the NEADL relative to the control group, with an adjusted mean difference between groups of 3.0 (Cohen's d 0.63), and a trend for greater improvement in self-efficacy and mental health, but with small effect sizes. The mean cost of delivering the intervention was £231 per patient. There was a small relative improvement in quality-adjusted life year in the intervention group. No serious adverse events relating to the intervention were reported.Conclusions: The trial methods were feasible in terms of eligibility, recruitment and retention. The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the rehabilitation package should be tested in a phase III RCT

Nutrient Requirements of Poultry

vii 69 hal : 24 c

Firewood Crops:Shrub And Tree Species For Energy Production Vol 2

vii,92 hal,;ill,;22 c

Effect of Environment on Nutrient Requirements of Domestic Animals

xii 151 hal ; 24 c