Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2\ub75th percentile and 100 as the 97\ub75th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59\ub74 (IQR 35\ub74–67\ub73), ranging from a low of 11\ub76 (95% uncertainty interval 9\ub76–14\ub70) to a high of 84\ub79 (83\ub71–86\ub77). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of 'leaving no one behind', it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. METHODS: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

© 2018 The Author(s). Background: Assessments of age-specifc mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Afairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specifc mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in diferent components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation: This analysis of age-sex-specifc mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The fndings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which refects signifcant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing

Tuberculosis prevention, diagnosis, and treatment financial profile during 2006–2021: PART A

Abstract Background Tuberculosis (TB) is a communicable disease that is a major cause of death and one of the leading causes of death worldwide. Currently, there is no analyzed data to examine the financial profile of TB by country, continent, and year; this article analyzed TB prevention, diagnosis, and treatment financial profile during the last two decades. Methods Original research, reviews, and governmental databases are analyzed to present the financial profile of TB. Results Analyzed data showed Europe (23137.133), Asia (20137.073), and Africa (15237.973) had the most allocated funds (US $million), and Oceania (236.702), and America (4745.043) had the lowest allocated fund (US$ million) during 2006–2021. Additionally, the allocation of funds (domestic funds, global funds, and grants [excluding global funds]) in different countries and proper planning for TB eradication has caused that in the last two decades, the slope of the confirmed cases and deaths graph line is negative. Conclusion The number of confirmed cases and deaths reported globally is decreasing. The trend lines showed that the assigned funds are increasing, indicating that the TB eradication plan can be apprehended soon

The importance of heteroresistance and efflux pumps in bedaquiline-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates from Iran

Abstract Background Tuberculosis (TB) continues to pose a threat to communities worldwide and remains a significant public health issue in several countries. We assessed the role of heteroresistance and efflux pumps in bedaquiline (BDQ)-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates. Methods Nineteen clinical isolates were included in the study, of which fifteen isolates were classified as MDR or XDR, while four isolates were fully susceptible. To evaluate BDQ heteroresistance, the Microplate Alamar Blue Assay (MABA) method was employed. For screening mixed infections, MIRU-VNTR was performed on clinical isolates. Mutations in the atpE and Rv0678 genes were determined based on next-generation sequencing data. Additionally, real-time PCR was applied to assess the expression of efflux pump genes in the absence and presence of verapamil (VP). Results All 15 drug-resistant isolates displayed resistance to BDQ. Among the 19 total isolates, 21.05% (4/19) exhibited a heteroresistance pattern to BDQ. None of the isolates carried a mutation of the atpE and Rv0678 genes associated with BDQ resistance. Regarding the MIRU-VNTR analysis, most isolates (94.73%) showed the Beijing genotype. Fifteen (78.9%) isolates showed a significant reduction in BDQ MIC after VP treatment. The efflux pump genes of Rv0676c, Rv1258c, Rv1410c, Rv1634, Rv1819, Rv2459, Rv2846, and Rv3065 were overexpressed in the presence of BDQ. Conclusions Our results clearly demonstrated the crucial role of heteroresistance and efflux pumps in BDQ resistance. Additionally, we established a direct link between the Rv0676c gene and BDQ resistance. The inclusion of VP significantly reduced the MIC of BDQ in both drug-susceptible and drug-resistant clinical isolates

The effect of anti-coagulant and anti-platelet agents on testicular arterial blood flow following DXR treatment.

<p>Blood flow was measured by the PW Doppler mode and quantified by analyzing the VTI using the appropriate VisualSonics software. (<b>a</b>) Blood flow of testicular arteries was continuously monitored by PW Doppler in mice pre-treated with LMWH (clexane; 100µg/mouse), before and following DXR (8mg/kg BW; n=8, n=number of imaged arteries) injection and analyzed 3, 6, 9, 12 and 15 minutes afterwards. Graphic illustration of testicular arterial blood flow; points represent percent of control (dashed line; mean±SEM), (*)-significantly different from DXR treatment values (P<0.05). (<b>b</b>) Blood flow of testicular arteries was continuously monitored by PW Doppler in mice pre-treated with eptifibatide (integrilin; 75µg/mouse), before and following DXR (8mg/kg BW; n=9, n=number of imaged arteries) injection and analyzed 3, 6, 9, 12 and 15 minutes afterwards. Graphic illustration of testicular arterial blood flow; points represent percent of control (dashed line; mean±SEM), (*)-significantly different from DXR treatment values (P<0.05).</p

Effect of Doxorubicin on platelet aggregation and adhesion.

<p>(A) PRP was pre-incubated for 15 minutes with increasing concentrations of DXR then aggregation was induced by ADP (5 µM) and maximal aggregation is presented as mean ± SD; statistical analysis was tested by ANOVA (p<0.001; n=9). (B) Whole blood was pre-incubated for 15 minutes with increasing concentrations of DXR then subjected to the Impact-R test and both surface coverage and average size of the aggregates are presented as mean ± SD (n=5).</p

DXR induces testicular vascular changes.

<p>Histological sections of testes from saline or DXR (5 mg/kg) treated mice were immunohistochemically stained with Hoecst 33342 (nuclei labeling; blue) and anti CD34 primary antibody (1:200) followed by alexa555 anti-rat secondary antibody (red; 1:400). Saline (A,C) and DXR (B,D) at one week (A,B) or one month (C,D) after treatment. Bar=240µm.</p