Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017

A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic

Prevalence and Distribution of the Middle Mesial Canal in Mandibular First Molar Teeth of the Kerman Population: A CBCT Study

Purpose. Missed additional canals are one of the most important reasons for RCT failures in molar teeth. This study aimed to determine the prevalence and distribution of middle mesial canals in mandibular first molars of the Kerman population. Materials and Methods. A retrospective study was performed on de-identified cone beam image sets from 3 private radiology centers in Kerman. A total of 100 mandibular first molars from 62 patients (mean age 32 years) were included. Information regarding the patient’s age and gender, the location of teeth, and the presence or absence of a MMC and also a second distal canal in MMC cases was recorded in an Excel table. Data were analyzed using SPSS software (IBM-USA). Results. The overall prevalence of MMCs in the mandibular first molars was 8.1% (10.0% in females and 6.3% in males). More cases of MMCs were seen on the right side (12.2%) than the left side (3.4%). One case of bilateral MMCs combined with bilateral second distal canals in the mandibular first molars was seen in a 26-year-old female. A further case of bilateral MMCs was found in a 32-year-old male but with single-canal distal roots on both sides. Conclusion. The overall prevalence of MMCs in the Kerman population (8.1%) is at the lower end of the reported range of the international literature (0.26% to 53.8%). In the cohort examined in this study, mid mesial canals were more prevalent in females and on the right side. There was no definite relationship between MMCs and second distal canals in the mandibular first molar teeth in the same subject. MMCs may be unilateral or bilateral. Careful exploration of the pulpal floor between canal orifices is essential to prevent missing the MMC, as this would cause undesirable clinical outcomes

Correlation between Prolonged Hyperbilirubinemia and Serum Zinc Level in Term Neonates

Background: Prolonged hyperbilirubinemia is defined as jaundice persisting more than two and three weeks of life in term and preterm neonates, respectively. In total, 15-40% of jaundiced neonates became prolonged. The most common causes of prolonged hyperbilirubinemia are breastfeeding, infection, hypothyroidism, and continued hemolysis. Given the fact that no study was conducted on the association between the serums zinc level and prolonged hyperbilirubinemia, this study aimed to compare the healthy neonates with newborns suffering from prolonged hyperbilirubinemia in terms of serum zinc level.Methods: This cross-sectional analytical descriptive study with a control group included all neonates who had a history of hospital admission and phototherapy due to hyperbilirubinemia at Amirkola Children’s Hospital, Babol, Iran. After discharge, on the 14th day of birth, all neonates followed up at the outpatient clinic. The serum bilirubin was checked and the neonates were assigned into the case (with prolonged hyperbilirubinemia) and control (without prolonged hyperbilirubinemia) groups. Both groups were matched regarding confounding factors. Serum zinc level was measured using the colorimetric method and the two groups were compared in this regard.Results: In total, 60 neonates in the case (n=30) and control (n=30) groups were investigated in this study. The serum zinc levels in the case and control groups were 83.7±35.35 and 92.73±38.13 μg/dl, respectively. There was no significant difference between the two groups in terms of the serum zinc level (P=0.34).Conclusion: There is no statistically significant correlation between the serum zinc level and prolonged hyperbilirubinemia in term neonates who had been treated with phototherapy