Enhancing Horizon Scanning by utilizing pre-developed scenarios: analysis of current practice and specification of a process improvement to aid the identification of important 'weak signals'

This paper documents the Intuitive Logics scenario planning process and its relationship with horizon scanning activity in order to evaluate the separate and joint usefulness of these methods for anticipating the future. The specific objectives of this paper are to: (i) identify and differentiate scenario planning and horizon scanning methodologies (ii) discuss & evaluate their analytic underpinnings, and (iii) critically appraise their separate and combined value and effectiveness in relation to enhancing organizational preparedness for the future. Our analysis culminates with specifications to (iv) enhance the identification of ’weak signals’ in Horizon Scanning by utilizing a systematically broadened range of both negatively-valenced and positively-valenced scenario storylines

Microcephaly in Pernambuco State, Brazil: epidemiological characteristics and evaluation of the diagnostic accuracy of cutoff points for reporting suspected cases.

The increase in the number of reported cases of microcephaly in Pernambuco State, and Northeast Brazil, characterized an epidemic that led the Brazilian Ministry of Health to declare a national public health emergency. The Brazilian Ministry of Health initially defined suspected cases as newborns with gestational age (GA) ≥ 37 weeks and head circumference (HC) ≤ 33cm, but in December 2015 this cutoff was lowered to 32cm. The current study aimed to estimate the accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of different cutoff points for HC, using ROC curves, with the Fenton and Intergrowth (2014) curves as the gold standard. The study described cases reported in Pernambuco from August 8 to November 28, 2015, according to sex and GA categories. The Fenton and Intergrowth methods provide HC growth curves according to GA and sex, and microcephaly is defined as a newborn with HC below the 3rd percentile in these distributions. Of the 684 reported cases, 599 were term or post-term neonates. For these, the analyses with ROC curves show that according to the Fenton criterion the cutoff point with the largest area under the ROC curve, with sensitivity greater than specificity, is 32cm for both sexes. Using the Intergrowth method and following the same criteria, the cutoff points are 32cm and 31.5cm for males and females, respectively. The cutoff point identified by the Fenton method (32cm) coincided with the Brazilian Ministry of Health recommendation. Adopting Intergrowth as the standard, the choice would be 32cm for males and 31.5cm for females. The study identified the need to conduct critical and on-going analyses to evaluate cutoff points, including other characteristics for microcephaly case definition

First narrow-band search for continuous gravitational waves from known pulsars in advanced detector data

Spinning neutron stars asymmetric with respect to their rotation axis are potential sources of continuous gravitational waves for ground-based interferometric detectors. In the case of known pulsars a fully coherent search, based on matched filtering, which uses the position and rotational parameters obtained from electromagnetic observations, can be carried out. Matched filtering maximizes the signalto- noise (SNR) ratio, but a large sensitivity loss is expected in case of even a very small mismatch between the assumed and the true signal parameters. For this reason, narrow-band analysis methods have been developed, allowing a fully coherent search for gravitational waves from known pulsars over a fraction of a hertz and several spin-down values. In this paper we describe a narrow-band search of 11 pulsars using data from Advanced LIGO’s first observing run. Although we have found several initial outliers, further studies show no significant evidence for the presence of a gravitational wave signal. Finally, we have placed upper limits on the signal strain amplitude lower than the spin-down limit for 5 of the 11 targets over the bands searched; in the case of J1813-1749 the spin-down limit has been beaten for the first time. For an additional 3 targets, the median upper limit across the search bands is below the spin-down limit. This is the most sensitive narrow-band search for continuous gravitational waves carried out so far

Compressed representation of a partially defined integer function over multiple arguments

In OLAP (OnLine Analitical Processing) data are analysed in an n-dimensional cube. The cube may be represented as a partially defined function over n arguments. Considering that often the function is not defined everywhere, we ask: is there a known way of representing the function or the points in which it is defined, in a more compact manner than the trivial one

Measurement of isolated photon production in pp and PbPb collisions at sqrt(sNN) = 2.76 TeV

Isolated photon production is measured in proton-proton and lead-lead collisions at nucleon-nucleon centre-of-mass energies of 2.76 TeV in the pseudorapidity range |eta|<1.44 and transverse energies ET between 20 and 80 GeV with the CMS detector at the LHC. The measured ET spectra are found to be in good agreement with next-to-leading-order perturbative QCD predictions. The ratio of PbPb to pp isolated photon ET-differential yields, scaled by the number of incoherent nucleon-nucleon collisions, is consistent with unity for all PbPb reaction centralities.Comment: Submitted to Physics Letters

Testing the function of dromaeosaurid (Dinosauria, Theropoda) 'sickle claws' through musculoskeletal modelling and optimization

Dromaeosaurids were a clade of bird-like, carnivorous dinosaurs that are well known for their characteristic morphology of pedal digit II, which bore an enlarged, sickle-shaped claw and permitted an extreme range of flexion–extension. Proposed functions for the claw often revolve around predation, but the exact manner of use varies widely. Musculoskeletal modelling provides an avenue to quantitatively investigate the biomechanics of this enigmatic system, and thereby test different behavioural hypotheses. Here, a musculoskeletal model of the hindlimb and pes of Deinonychus was developed, and mathematical optimization was used to assess the factors that maximize production of force at the claw tip. Optimization revealed that more crouched hindlimb postures (i.e., more flexed knees and ankles) and larger flexor muscle volumes consistently increased claw forces, although the optimal degree of digit flexion or extension depended on assumptions of muscle activity and fibre operating range. Interestingly, the magnitude of force capable of being produced at the claw tip was relatively small, arguing against regular transmission of a large proportion of body weight into a substrate principally via the claw tip. Such transmission would therefore likely have needed to occur via more proximal parts of the foot. Collectively, the results best support a grasping function for digit II (e.g., restraint of prey smaller than the dromaeosaurid’s own body size), although other behaviours involving flexed hindlimbs cannot be excluded

Taxonomy of the order Bunyavirales : second update 2018

In October 2018, the order Bunyavirales was amended by inclusion of the family Arenaviridae, abolishment of three families, creation of three new families, 19 new genera, and 14 new species, and renaming of three genera and 22 species. This article presents the updated taxonomy of the order Bunyavirales as now accepted by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV).Non peer reviewe

New high statistics measurement of Ke4K_{e4} decay form factors and ππ\pi\pi scattering phase shifts

We report results from a new measurement of the $K_{e4}$ decay $K^{\pm} \rightarrow \pi^{+}\pi^{-}e^{\pm}\nu$ by the NA48/2 collaboration at the CERN SPS, based on a partial sample of more than 670000 $K_{e4}$ decays in both charged modes collected in 2003. The form factors of the hadronic current (F, G, H) and $\pi\pi$ phase difference ($\delta=\delta_{s}-\delta_{p}$) have been measured in ten independent bins of the $\pi\pi$ mass spectrum to investigate the variation. A sizeable acceptance at large $\pi\pi$ mass, a low background and a very good resolution contribute to an improved experimental accuracy, a factor two better than in the previous measurement, when extracting the $\pi\pi$ scattering lengths $a^{0}_{0}$ and $a^{2}_{0}$. Under the assumption of isospin symmetry and using numerical solutions of the Roy equations, the following values are obtained in the plane ($a^{0}_{0}, a^{2}_{0}): a^{0}_{0}=0.233 \pm 0.016_{stat} \pm 0.007_{syst}, a^{2}_{0}=-0.0471 \pm 0.011_{stat} \pm 0.004_{syst}$. The presence of potentially large isospin effects is also considered and will allow comparison with precise predictions from Chiral Perturbation Theory

Search for direct CP violating charge asymmetries in K±→π±π+π−K^\pm\to\pi^\pm\pi^+\pi^- and K±→π±π0π0K^\pm\to\pi^\pm\pi^0\pi^0 decays

A measurement of the direct CP violating charge asymmetries of the Dalitz plot linear slopes $A_g=(g^+-g^-)/(g^++g^-)$ in $K^\pm\to\pi^\pm\pi^+\pi^-$ and $K^\pm\to\pi^\pm\pi^0\pi^0$ decays by the NA48/2 experiment at CERN SPS is presented. A new technique of asymmetry measurement involving simultaneous $K^+$ and $K^-$ beams and a large data sample collected allowed a result of an unprecedented precision. The charge asymmetries were measured to be $A^c_g=(-1.5\pm2.2)\times10^{-4}$ with $3.11\times 10^9$ $K^{\pm}\to\pi^\pm\pi^+\pi^-$ decays, and $A^n_g=(1.8\pm1.8)\times10^{-4}$ with $9.13\times 10^7$ $K^{\pm}\to\pi^\pm\pi^0\pi^0$ decays. The precision of the results is limited mainly by the size of the data sample.Comment: 29 pages, 9 figures. An updated version accepted by the EPJ