Rescaling quality of life values from discrete choice experiments for use as QALYs: a cautionary tale

Background: Researchers are increasingly investigating the potential for ordinal tasks such as ranking and discrete choice experiments to estimate QALY health state values. However, the assumptions of random utility theory, which underpin the statistical models used to provide these estimates, have received insufficient attention. In particular, the assumptions made about the decisions between living states and the death state are not satisfied, at least for some people. Estimated values are likely to be incorrectly anchored with respect to death (zero) in such circumstances. Methods: Data from the Investigating Choice Experiments for the preferences of older people CAPability instrument (ICECAP) valuation exercise were analysed. The values (previously anchored to the worst possible state) were rescaled using an ordinal model proposed previously to estimate QALY-like values. Bootstrapping was conducted to vary artificially the proportion of people who conformed to the conventional random utility model underpinning the analyses. Results: Only 26% of respondents conformed unequivocally to the assumptions of conventional random utility theory. At least 14% of respondents unequivocally violated the assumptions. Varying the relative proportions of conforming respondents in sensitivity analyses led to large changes in the estimated QALY values, particularly for lower-valued states. As a result these values could be either positive (considered to be better than death) or negative (considered to be worse than death). Conclusion: Use of a statistical model such as conditional (multinomial) regression to anchor quality of life values from ordinal data to death is inappropriate in the presence of respondents who do not conform to the assumptions of conventional random utility theory. This is clearest when estimating values for that group of respondents observed in valuation samples who refuse to consider any living state to be worse than death: in such circumstances the model cannot be estimated. Only a valuation task requiring respondents to make choices in which both length and quality of life vary can produce estimates that properly reflect the preferences of all respondents

Layered convection as the origin of Saturn's luminosity anomaly

As they keep cooling and contracting, Solar System giant planets radiate more energy than they receive from the Sun. Applying the first and second principles of thermodynamics, one can determine their cooling rate, luminosity, and temperature at a given age. Measurements of Saturn's infrared intrinsic luminosity, however, reveal that this planet is significantly brighter than predicted for its age. This excess luminosity is usually attributed to the immiscibility of helium in the hydrogen-rich envelope, leading to "rains" of helium-rich droplets. Existing evolution calculations, however, suggest that the energy released by this sedimentation process may not be sufficient to resolve the puzzle. Here, we demonstrate using planetary evolution models that the presence of layered convection in Saturn's interior, generated, like in some parts of Earth oceans, by the presence of a compositional gradient, significantly reduces its cooling. It can explain the planet's present luminosity for a wide range of configurations without invoking any additional source of energy. This suggests a revision of the conventional homogeneous adiabatic interior paradigm for giant planets, and questions our ability to assess their heavy element content. This reinforces the possibility for layered convection to help explaining the anomalously large observed radii of extrasolar giant planets.Comment: Published in Nature Geoscience. Online publication date: April 21st, 2013. Accepted version before journal editing and with Supplementary Informatio

Design of Experiments for Screening

The aim of this paper is to review methods of designing screening experiments, ranging from designs originally developed for physical experiments to those especially tailored to experiments on numerical models. The strengths and weaknesses of the various designs for screening variables in numerical models are discussed. First, classes of factorial designs for experiments to estimate main effects and interactions through a linear statistical model are described, specifically regular and nonregular fractional factorial designs, supersaturated designs and systematic fractional replicate designs. Generic issues of aliasing, bias and cancellation of factorial effects are discussed. Second, group screening experiments are considered including factorial group screening and sequential bifurcation. Third, random sampling plans are discussed including Latin hypercube sampling and sampling plans to estimate elementary effects. Fourth, a variety of modelling methods commonly employed with screening designs are briefly described. Finally, a novel study demonstrates six screening methods on two frequently-used exemplars, and their performances are compared

Turning the Table: Plants Consume Microbes as a Source of Nutrients

Interactions between plants and microbes in soil, the final frontier of ecology, determine the availability of nutrients to plants and thereby primary production of terrestrial ecosystems. Nutrient cycling in soils is considered a battle between autotrophs and heterotrophs in which the latter usually outcompete the former, although recent studies have questioned the unconditional reign of microbes on nutrient cycles and the plants' dependence on microbes for breakdown of organic matter. Here we present evidence indicative of a more active role of plants in nutrient cycling than currently considered. Using fluorescent-labeled non-pathogenic and non-symbiotic strains of a bacterium and a fungus (Escherichia coli and Saccharomyces cerevisiae, respectively), we demonstrate that microbes enter root cells and are subsequently digested to release nitrogen that is used in shoots. Extensive modifications of root cell walls, as substantiated by cell wall outgrowth and induction of genes encoding cell wall synthesizing, loosening and degrading enzymes, may facilitate the uptake of microbes into root cells. Our study provides further evidence that the autotrophy of plants has a heterotrophic constituent which could explain the presence of root-inhabiting microbes of unknown ecological function. Our discovery has implications for soil ecology and applications including future sustainable agriculture with efficient nutrient cycles

The self-management of longer-term depression: learning from the patient, a qualitative study

Background Depression is a common mental health condition now viewed as chronic or long-term. More than 50 % of people will have at least one further episode of depression after their first, and therefore it requires long-term management. However, little is known about the effectiveness of self-management in depression, in particular from the patients’ perspective. This study aimed to understand how people with longer-term depression manage the condition, how services can best support self-management and whether the principles and concepts of the recovery approach would be advantageous. Methods Semi-structured in depth interviews were carried out with 21 participants, recruited from a range of sources using maximum variation sampling. Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis was used by a diverse team comprised of service users, practitioners and academics. Results Four super-ordinate themes were found: experience of depression, the self, the wider environment, self-management strategies. Within these, several prominent sub-themes emerged of importance to the participants. These included how aspects of themselves such as hope, confidence and motivation could be powerful agents; and how engaging in a wide range of chosen activities could contribute to their emotional, mental, physical, social, spiritual and creative wellbeing. Conclusions Services in general were not perceived to be useful in specifically facilitating self-management. Increased choice and control were needed and a greater emphasis on an individualised holistic model. Improved information was needed about how to develop strategies and locate resources, especially during the first episode of depression. These concepts echoed those of the recovery approach, which could therefore be seen as valuable in aiding the self-management of depression. Keywords: Depression; Patients’ perspective; Qualitative research; Recovery; Self-help; Self-managemen

Evidence for the Contribution of the Hemozoin Synthesis Pathway of the Murine Plasmodium yoelii to the Resistance to Artemisinin-Related Drugs

Plasmodium falciparum malaria is a major global health problem, causing approximately 780,000 deaths each year. In response to the spreading of P. falciparum drug resistance, WHO recommended in 2001 to use artemisinin derivatives in combination with a partner drug (called ACT) as first-line treatment for uncomplicated falciparum malaria, and most malaria-endemic countries have since changed their treatment policies accordingly. Currently, ACT are often the last treatments that can effectively and rapidly cure P. falciparum infections permitting to significantly decrease the mortality and the morbidity due to malaria. However, alarming signs of emerging resistance to artemisinin derivatives along the Thai-Cambodian border are of major concern. Through long-term in vivo pressures, we have been able to select a murine malaria model resistant to artemisinins. We demonstrated that the resistance of Plasmodium to artemisinin-based compounds depends on alterations of heme metabolism and on a loss of hemozoin formation linked to the down-expression of the recently identified Heme Detoxification Protein (HDP). These artemisinins resistant strains could be able to detoxify the free heme by an alternative catabolism pathway involving glutathione (GSH)-mediation. Finally, we confirmed that artemisinins act also like quinolines against Plasmodium via hemozoin production inhibition. The work proposed here described the mechanism of action of this class of molecules and the resistance to artemisinins of this model. These results should help both to reinforce the artemisinins activity and avoid emergence and spread of endoperoxides resistance by focusing in adequate drug partners design. Such considerations appear crucial in the current context of early artemisinin resistance in Asia

Search for High-Mass Resonances Decaying to τν in pp Collisions at √s=13 TeV with the ATLAS Detector

A search for high-mass resonances decaying to τν using proton-proton collisions at √s=13 TeV produced by the Large Hadron Collider is presented. Only τ-lepton decays with hadrons in the final state are considered. The data were recorded with the ATLAS detector and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 36.1 fb−1. No statistically significant excess above the standard model expectation is observed; model-independent upper limits are set on the visible τν production cross section. Heavy W′ bosons with masses less than 3.7 TeV in the sequential standard model and masses less than 2.2–3.8 TeV depending on the coupling in the nonuniversal G(221) model are excluded at the 95% credibility level

Search for the direct production of charginos and neutralinos in final states with tau leptons in √s=13 TeV collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for the direct production of charginos and neutralinos in final states with at least two hadronically decaying tau leptons is presented. The analysis uses a dataset of pp collisions corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 36.1 fb−1, recorded with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider at a centre-of-mass energy of 13TeV.Nosignificant deviation from the expected Standard Model background is observed. Limits are derived in scenarios of ˜χ+1 ˜χ−1 pair production and of ˜χ±1 ˜χ02 and ˜χ+1 ˜χ−1 production in simplified models where the neutralinos and charginos decay solely via intermediate left-handed staus and tau sneutrinos, and the mass of the ˜ τL state is set to be halfway between the masses of the ˜χ±1 and the ˜χ01. Chargino masses up to 630 GeV are excluded at 95% confidence level in the scenario of direct production of ˜χ+1 ˜χ−1 for a massless ˜χ01. Common ˜χ±1 and ˜χ02 masses up to 760 GeV are excluded in the case of production of ˜χ±1 ˜χ02 and ˜χ+1 ˜χ−1 assuming a massless ˜χ01. Exclusion limits for additional benchmark scenarios with large and small mass-splitting between the ˜χ±1 and the ˜χ01 are also studied by varying the ˜ τL mass between the masses of the ˜χ±1 and the ˜χ01

Measurement of differential cross sections and W + /W − cross-section ratios for W boson production in association with jets at √s =8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper presents a measurement of the W boson production cross section and the W + /W − cross-section ratio, both in association with jets, in proton--proton collisions at s √ =8 TeV with the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider. The measurement is performed in final states containing one electron and missing transverse momentum using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20.2 fb −1 . Differential cross sections for events with one or two jets are presented for a range of observables, including jet transverse momenta and rapidities, the scalar sum of transverse momenta of the visible particles and the missing transverse momentum in the event, and the transverse momentum of the W boson. For a subset of the observables, the differential cross sections of positively and negatively charged W bosons are measured separately. In the cross-section ratio of W + /W − the dominant systematic uncertainties cancel out, improving the measurement precision by up to a factor of nine. The observables and ratios selected for this paper provide valuable input for the up quark, down quark, and gluon parton distribution functions of the proto