Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Using participatory design methodologies to co-design and culturally adapt the Spanish version of the Mental Health eClinic: Qualitative study

Background: The Mental Health eClinic (MHeC) aims to deliver best-practice clinical services to young people experiencing mental health problems by making clinical care accessible, affordable, and available to young people whenever and wherever they need it most. The original MHeC consists of home page with a visible triage system for those requiring urgent help; a online physical and mental health self-report assessment; a results dashboard; a booking and videoconferencing system; and the generation of a personalized well-being plan. Populations who do not speak English and reside in English-speaking countries are less likely to receive mental health care. In Australia, international students have been identified as disadvantaged compared with their peers; have weaker social support networks; and have higher rates of psychological distress. This scenario is acquiring significant relevance as Spanish-speaking migration is rapidly growing in Australia, and the mental health services for culturally and linguistically diverse populations are limited. Having a Spanish version (MHeC-S) of the Mental Health eClinic would greatly benefit these students. Objective: We used participatory design methodologies with users (young people aged 16-30 years, supportive others, and health professionals) to (1) conduct workshops with users to co-design and culturally adapt the MHeC; (2) inform the development of the MHeC-S alpha prototype; (3) test the usability of the MHeC-S alpha prototype; (4) translate, culturally adapt, and face-validate the MHeC-S self-report assessment; and (5) collect information to inform its beta prototype. Methods: A research and development cycle included several participatory design phases: co-design workshops; knowledge translation; language translation and cultural adaptation; and rapid prototyping and user testing of the MHeC-S alpha prototype. Results: We held 2 co-design workshops with 17 users (10 young people, 7 health professionals). A total of 15 participated in the one-on-one user testing sessions (7 young people, 5 health professionals, 3 supportive others). We collected 225 source documents, and thematic analysis resulted in 5 main themes (help-seeking barriers, technology platform, functionality, content, and user interface). A random sample of 106 source documents analyzed by 2 independent raters revealed almost perfect agreement for functionality (kappa=.86; P\u3c.001) and content (kappa=.92; P\u3c.001) and substantial agreement for the user interface (kappa=.785; P\u3c.001). In this random sample, no annotations were coded for help-seeking barriers or the technology platform. Language was identified as the main barrier to getting medical or psychological services, and smartphones were the most-used device to access the internet. Acceptability was adequate for the prototype’s 5 main elements: home page and triage system, self-report assessment, dashboard of results, booking and video visit system, and personalized well-being plan. The data also revealed gaps in the alpha prototype, such as the need for tailored assessment tools and a greater integration with Spanish-speaking services and communities. Spanish-language apps and e-tools, as well as online mental health information, were lacking. Conclusions: Through a research and development process, we co-designed and culturally adapted, developed and user tested, and evaluated the MHeC-S. By translating and culturally adapting the MHeC to Spanish, we aimed to increase accessibility and availability of e-mental health care in the developing world, and assist vulnerable populations that have migrated to English-speaking countries

Adaptive modulation of antibiotic resistance through intragenomic coevolution

Bacteria gain antibiotic resistance genes by horizontal acquisition of mobile genetic elements (MGEs) from other lineages. Newly acquired MGEs are often poorly adapted causing intragenomic conflicts; these are resolved by either compensatory adaptation - of the chromosome or the MGE - or reciprocal coadaptation. The footprints of such intragenomic coevolution are present in bacterial genomes, suggesting an important role promoting genomic integration of horizontally acquired genes, but direct experimental evidence of the process is limited. Here we show adaptive modulation of tetracycline resistance via intragenomic coevolution between Escherichia coli and the multidrug resistant plasmid RK2. Tetracycline treatments, including monotherapy or combination therapies with ampicillin, favoured de novo chromosomal resistance mutations coupled with mutations on RK2 impairing the plasmid-encoded tetracycline efflux pump. These mutations together provided increased tetracycline resistance at reduced cost. Additionally, the chromosomal resistance mutations conferred cross-resistance to chloramphenicol. Reciprocal coadaptation was not observed under ampicillin-only or no antibiotic selection. Intragenomic coevolution can create genomes comprising multiple replicons that together provide high-level, low-cost resistance, but the resulting co-dependence may limit the spread of coadapted MGEs to other lineages

Measurement of the inclusive and dijet cross-sections of b-jets in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The inclusive and dijet production cross-sections have been measured for jets containing b-hadrons (b-jets) in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of sqrt(s) = 7 TeV, using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements use data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 34 pb^-1. The b-jets are identified using either a lifetime-based method, where secondary decay vertices of b-hadrons in jets are reconstructed using information from the tracking detectors, or a muon-based method where the presence of a muon is used to identify semileptonic decays of b-hadrons inside jets. The inclusive b-jet cross-section is measured as a function of transverse momentum in the range 20 < pT < 400 GeV and rapidity in the range |y| < 2.1. The bbbar-dijet cross-section is measured as a function of the dijet invariant mass in the range 110 < m_jj < 760 GeV, the azimuthal angle difference between the two jets and the angular variable chi in two dijet mass regions. The results are compared with next-to-leading-order QCD predictions. Good agreement is observed between the measured cross-sections and the predictions obtained using POWHEG + Pythia. MC@NLO + Herwig shows good agreement with the measured bbbar-dijet cross-section. However, it does not reproduce the measured inclusive cross-section well, particularly for central b-jets with large transverse momenta.Comment: 10 pages plus author list (21 pages total), 8 figures, 1 table, final version published in European Physical Journal

Search for R-parity-violating supersymmetry in events with four or more leptons in sqrt(s) =7 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for new phenomena in final states with four or more leptons (electrons or muons) is presented. The analysis is based on 4.7 fb−1 of $\sqrt{s}=7\;\mathrm{TeV}$ proton-proton collisions delivered by the Large Hadron Collider and recorded with the ATLAS detector. Observations are consistent with Standard Model expectations in two signal regions: one that requires moderate values of missing transverse momentum and another that requires large effective mass. The results are interpreted in a simplified model of R-parity-violating supersymmetry in which a 95% CL exclusion region is set for charged wino masses up to 540 GeV. In an R-parity-violating MSUGRA/CMSSM model, values of m 1/2 up to 820 GeV are excluded for 10 < tan β < 40

The pressure to communicate efficiently continues to shape language use later in life

Language use is shaped by a pressure to communicate efficiently, yet the tendency towards redundancy is said to increase in older age. The longstanding assumption is that saying more than is necessary is inefficient and may be driven by age-related decline in inhibition (i.e. the ability to filter out irrelevant information). However, recent work proposes an alternative account of efficiency: In certain contexts, redundancy facilitates communication (e.g., when the colour or size of an object is perceptually salient and its mention aids the listener’s search). A critical question follows: Are older adults indiscriminately redundant, or do they modulate their use of redundant information to facilitate communication? We tested efficiency and cognitive capacities in 200 adults aged 19–82. Irrespective of age, adults with better attention switching skills were redundant in efficient ways, demonstrating that the pressure to communicate efficiently continues to shape language use later in life

Continuous-time modeling of cell fate determination in Arabidopsis flowers

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The genetic control of floral organ specification is currently being investigated by various approaches, both experimentally and through modeling. Models and simulations have mostly involved boolean or related methods, and so far a quantitative, continuous-time approach has not been explored.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We propose an ordinary differential equation (ODE) model that describes the gene expression dynamics of a gene regulatory network that controls floral organ formation in the model plant <it>Arabidopsis thaliana</it>. In this model, the dimerization of MADS-box transcription factors is incorporated explicitly. The unknown parameters are estimated from (known) experimental expression data. The model is validated by simulation studies of known mutant plants.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The proposed model gives realistic predictions with respect to independent mutation data. A simulation study is carried out to predict the effects of a new type of mutation that has so far not been made in <it>Arabidopsis</it>, but that could be used as a severe test of the validity of the model. According to our predictions, the role of dimers is surprisingly important. Moreover, the functional loss of any dimer leads to one or more phenotypic alterations.</p

Relating the Chondrocyte Gene Network to Growth Plate Morphology: From Genes to Phenotype

During endochondral ossification, chondrocyte growth and differentiation is controlled by many local signalling pathways. Due to crosstalks and feedback mechanisms, these interwoven pathways display a network like structure. In this study, a large-scale literature based logical model of the growth plate network was developed. The network is able to capture the different states (resting, proliferating and hypertrophic) that chondrocytes go through as they progress within the growth plate. In a first corroboration step, the effect of mutations in various signalling pathways of the growth plate network was investigated

A Phylogeny and Timescale for the Evolution of Pseudocheiridae (Marsupialia: Diprotodontia) in Australia and New Guinea

Pseudocheiridae (Marsupialia: Diprotodontia) is a family of endemic Australasian arboreal folivores, more commonly known as ringtail possums. Seventeen extant species are grouped into six genera (Pseudocheirus, Pseudochirulus, Hemibelideus, Petauroides, Pseudochirops, Petropseudes). Pseudochirops and Pseudochirulus are the only genera with representatives on New Guinea and surrounding western islands. Here, we examine phylogenetic relationships among 13 of the 17 extant pseudocheirid species based on protein-coding portions of the ApoB, BRCA1, ENAM, IRBP, Rag1, and vWF genes. Maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian methods were used to estimate phylogenetic relationships. Two different relaxed molecular clock methods were used to estimate divergence times. Bayesian and maximum parsimony methods were used to reconstruct ancestral character states for geographic provenance and maximum elevation occupied. We find robust support for the monophyly of Pseudocheirinae (Pseudochirulus + Pseudocheirus), Hemibelidinae (Hemibelideus + Petauroides), and Pseudochiropsinae (Pseudochirops + Petropseudes), respectively, and for an association of Pseudocheirinae and Hemibelidinae to the exclusion of Pseudochiropsinae. Within Pseudochiropsinae, Petropseudes grouped more closely with the New Guinean Pseudochirops spp. than with the Australian Pseudochirops archeri, rendering Pseudochirops paraphyletic. New Guinean species belonging to Pseudochirops are monophyletic, as are New Guinean species belonging to Pseudochirulus. Molecular dates and ancestral reconstructions of geographic provenance combine to suggest that the ancestors of extant New Guinean Pseudochirops spp. and Pseudochirulus spp. dispersed from Australia to New Guinea ∼12.1–6.5 Ma (Pseudochirops) and ∼6.0–2.4 Ma (Pseudochirulus). Ancestral state reconstructions support the hypothesis that occupation of high elevations (>3000 m) is a derived feature that evolved on the terminal branch leading to Pseudochirops cupreus, and either evolved in the ancestor of Pseudochirulus forbesi, Pseudochirulus mayeri, and Pseudochirulus caroli, with subsequent loss in P. caroli, or evolved independently in P. mayeri and P. forbesi. Divergence times within the New Guinean Pseudochirops clade are generally coincident with the uplift of the central cordillera and other highlands. Diversification within New Guinean Pseudochirulus occurred in the Plio-Pleistocene after the establishment of the Central Range and other highlands