Verified global optimization for estimating the parameters of nonlinear models

Nonlinear parameter estimation is usually achieved via the minimization of some possibly non-convex cost function. Interval analysis allows one to derive algorithms for the guaranteed characterization of the set of all global minimizers of such a cost function when an explicit expression for the output of the model is available or when this output is obtained via the numerical solution of a set of ordinary differential equations. However, cost functions involved in parameter estimation are usually challenging for interval techniques, if only because of multi-occurrences of the parameters in the formal expression of the cost. This paper addresses parameter estimation via the verified global optimization of quadratic cost functions. It introduces tools for the minimization of generic cost functions. When an explicit expression of the output of the parametric model is available, significant improvements may be obtained by a new box exclusion test and by careful manipulations of the quadratic cost function. When the model is described by ODEs, some of the techniques available in the previous case may still be employed, provided that sensitivity functions of the model output with respect to the parameters are available

K0S and Λ production in Pb-Pb collisions at sNN−−−−√=2.76 TeV

The ALICE measurement of K0S and Λ production at midrapidity in Pb-Pb collisions at sNN−−−√=2.76  TeV is presented. The transverse momentum (pT) spectra are shown for several collision centrality intervals and in the pT range from 0.4  GeV/c (0.6  GeV/c for Λ) to 12  GeV/c. The pT dependence of the Λ/K0S ratios exhibits maxima in the vicinity of 3  GeV/c, and the positions of the maxima shift towards higher pT with increasing collision centrality. The magnitude of these maxima increases by almost a factor of three between most peripheral and most central Pb-Pb collisions. This baryon excess at intermediate pT is not observed in pp interactions at s√=0.9  TeV and at s√=7  TeV. Qualitatively, the baryon enhancement in heavy-ion collisions is expected from radial flow. However, the measured pT spectra above 2  GeV/c progressively decouple from hydrodynamical-model calculations. For higher values of pT, models that incorporate the influence of the medium on the fragmentation and hadronization processes describe qualitatively the pT dependence of the Λ/K0S ratio

Search for Gravitational Waves from Intermediate Mass Binary Black Holes

We present the results of a weakly modeled burst search for gravitational waves from mergers of non-spinning intermediate mass black holes (IMBH) in the total mass range 100--450 solar masses and with the component mass ratios between 1:1 and 4:1. The search was conducted on data collected by the LIGO and Virgo detectors between November of 2005 and October of 2007. No plausible signals were observed by the search which constrains the astrophysical rates of the IMBH mergers as a function of the component masses. In the most efficiently detected bin centered on 88+88 solar masses, for non-spinning sources, the rate density upper limit is 0.13 per Mpc^3 per Myr at the 90% confidence level.Comment: 13 pages, 4 figures: data for plots and archived public version at https://dcc.ligo.org/cgi-bin/DocDB/ShowDocument?docid=62326, see also the public announcement at http://www.ligo.org/science/Publication-S5IMBH

Higher harmonic anisotropic flow measurements of charged particles in Pb-Pb collisions at 2.76 TeV

We report on the first measurement of the triangular $v_3$, quadrangular $v_4$, and pentagonal $v_5$ charged particle flow in Pb-Pb collisions at 2.76 TeV measured with the ALICE detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. We show that the triangular flow can be described in terms of the initial spatial anisotropy and its fluctuations, which provides strong constraints on its origin. In the most central events, where the elliptic flow $v_2$ and $v_3$ have similar magnitude, a double peaked structure in the two-particle azimuthal correlations is observed, which is often interpreted as a Mach cone response to fast partons. We show that this structure can be naturally explained from the measured anisotropic flow Fourier coefficients.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures, published version, figures at http://aliceinfo.cern.ch/ArtSubmission/node/387

Association between convalescent plasma treatment and mortality in COVID-19: a collaborative systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials.

Funder: laura and john arnold foundationBACKGROUND: Convalescent plasma has been widely used to treat COVID-19 and is under investigation in numerous randomized clinical trials, but results are publicly available only for a small number of trials. The objective of this study was to assess the benefits of convalescent plasma treatment compared to placebo or no treatment and all-cause mortality in patients with COVID-19, using data from all available randomized clinical trials, including unpublished and ongoing trials (Open Science Framework, https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/GEHFX ). METHODS: In this collaborative systematic review and meta-analysis, clinical trial registries (ClinicalTrials.gov, WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform), the Cochrane COVID-19 register, the LOVE database, and PubMed were searched until April 8, 2021. Investigators of trials registered by March 1, 2021, without published results were contacted via email. Eligible were ongoing, discontinued and completed randomized clinical trials that compared convalescent plasma with placebo or no treatment in COVID-19 patients, regardless of setting or treatment schedule. Aggregated mortality data were extracted from publications or provided by investigators of unpublished trials and combined using the Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman random effects model. We investigated the contribution of unpublished trials to the overall evidence. RESULTS: A total of 16,477 patients were included in 33 trials (20 unpublished with 3190 patients, 13 published with 13,287 patients). 32 trials enrolled only hospitalized patients (including 3 with only intensive care unit patients). Risk of bias was low for 29/33 trials. Of 8495 patients who received convalescent plasma, 1997 died (23%), and of 7982 control patients, 1952 died (24%). The combined risk ratio for all-cause mortality was 0.97 (95% confidence interval: 0.92; 1.02) with between-study heterogeneity not beyond chance (I2 = 0%). The RECOVERY trial had 69.8% and the unpublished evidence 25.3% of the weight in the meta-analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Convalescent plasma treatment of patients with COVID-19 did not reduce all-cause mortality. These results provide strong evidence that convalescent plasma treatment for patients with COVID-19 should not be used outside of randomized trials. Evidence synthesis from collaborations among trial investigators can inform both evidence generation and evidence application in patient care

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities 1,2 . This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity 3�6 . Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55 of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017�and more than 80 in some low- and middle-income regions�was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing�and in some countries reversal�of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories. © 2019, The Author(s)

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries1,2. However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world3 and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health4,5. However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol�which is a marker of cardiovascular risk�changed from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95 credible interval 3.7 million�4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world. © 2020, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited

Inhibition of tumor growth by plant-derived mAb

The tumor-associated antigen EpCAM (GA733-2) is a highly expressed target on adenocarcinoma cells, as defined by murine mAb CO17-1A. We recently developed a transgenic plant system for the safe and inexpensive production of large quantities of mAb CO17-1A as a future source of clinical-grade protein. Although the glycosylation pattern of plant-derived mAb (mAb(P)) CO17-1A differs considerably from that of the mammalian-derived mAb (mAb(M)), we show here that the biological activity of both mAbs is quite similar. mAb(P) heavy and light chains assembled to bind the recombinant antigen GA733-2E and specifically bound to human SW948 colorectal carcinoma cells expressing the antigen GA733-2 to the same extent as mAb(M). mAb(P) was as effective as mAb(M) CO17-1A in inhibiting tumor growth of xenotransplanted SW948 cells in nude mice. These results suggest the promise of transgenic plants as a useful alternative way to produce full-size mAb for cancer immunotherapy