Ensemble Assimilation of Global Large-scale Precipitation

Many attempts to assimilate precipitation observations in numerical models have been made, but they have resulted in little or no forecast improvement at the end of the precipitation assimilation. This is due to the nonlinearity of the model precipitation parameterization, the non-Gaussianity of precipitation variables, and the large and unknown model and observation errors. In this study, we investigate the assimilation of global large-scale satellite precipitation using the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF). The LETKF does not require linearization of the model, and it can improve all model variables by giving higher weights in the analysis to ensemble members with better precipitation, so that the model will "remember" the assimilation changes during the forecasts. Gaussian transformations of precipitation are applied to both model background precipitation and observed precipitation, which not only makes the error distributions more Gaussian, but also removes the amplitude-dependent biases between the model and the observations. In addition, several quality control criteria are designed to reject precipitation observations that are not useful for the assimilation. Our ideas are tested in both an idealized system and a realistic system. In the former, observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) are conducted with a simplified general circulation model; in the latter, the TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) data are assimilated into a low-resolution version of the NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS). Positive results are obtained in both systems, showing that both the analyses and the 5-day forecasts are improved by the effective assimilation of precipitation. We also demonstrate how to use the ensemble forecast sensitivity to observations (EFSO) to analyze the effectiveness of precipitation assimilation and provide guidance for determining appropriate quality control. These results are very promising for the direct assimilation of satellite precipitation data in numerical weather prediction models, especially with the forthcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) sensors

Reduced non-Gaussianity by 30s rapid update in convective-scale numerical weather prediction

Non-Gaussian forecast error is a challenge for ensemble-based data assimilation (DA), particularly for more nonlinear convective dynamics. In this study, we investigate the degree of the non-Gaussianity of forecast error distributions at 1km resolution using a 1000-member ensemble Kalman filter, and how it is affected by the DA update frequency and observation number. Regional numerical weather prediction experiments are performed with the SCALE (Scalable Computing for Advanced Library and Environment) model and the LETKF (local ensemble transform Kalman filter) assimilating phased array radar observations every 30s. The results show that non-Gaussianity develops rapidly within convective clouds and is sensitive to the DA frequency and the number of assimilated observations. The non-Gaussianity is reduced by up to 40% when the assimilation window is shortened from 5min to 30s, particularly for vertical velocity and radar reflectivity.Fil: Ruiz, Juan Jose. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; Argentina. Rikagaku Kenkyujo; JapónFil: Lien, Guo-Yuan. Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan; ArgentinaFil: Kondo, Keiichi. Meteorological Research Institute; JapónFil: Otsuka, Shigenori. Rikagaku Kenkyujo; JapónFil: Miyoshi, Takemasa. Rikagaku Kenkyujo; Japón. University of Maryland; Estados Unidos. Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology; Japó

A convective-scale 1,000-member ensemble simulation and potential applications

This study presents the first convective-scale 1,000-member ensemble simulation over central Europe, which provides a unique data set for various applications. A comparison with the operational regional 40-member ensemble of Deutscher Wetterdienst shows that the 1,000-member simulation exhibits realistic spread properties overall. Based on this, we discuss two potential applications. First, we quantify the sampling error of spatial covariances of smaller subsets compared with the 1,000-member simulation. Knowledge about sampling errors and their dependence on ensemble size is crucial for ensemble and hybrid data assimilation and for developing better approaches for localization in this context. Secondly, we present an approach for estimating the relative potential impact of different observable quantities using ensemble sensitivity analysis. This will provide the basis for consecutive studies developing future observation and data assimilation strategies. Sensitivity studies on the ensemble size indicate that about 200 ensemble members are required to estimate the potential impact of observable quantities with respect to precipitation forecasts.Fil: Necker, Tobias. Ludwig Maximilians Universitat; Alemania. Universidad de Viena; AustriaFil: Geiss, Stefan. Ludwig Maximilians Universitat; AlemaniaFil: Weissmann, Martin. Ludwig Maximilians Universitat; AlemaniaFil: Ruiz, Juan Jose. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Miyoshi, Takemasa. RIKEN Center for Computational Science; JapónFil: Lien, Guo Yuan. RIKEN Center for Computational Science; Japó

Rainfall Simulations of Typhoon Morakot with Controlled Translation Speed Based on EnKF Data Assimilation

Typhoon Morakot produced record-breaking accumulated rainfall over southern Taiwan in August 2009. The combination of several factors resulted in this extreme weather event: the steep terrain in Taiwan, the prevailing south-westerly flow in the monsoon trough, Typhoon Goni over the northern South China Sea, and the slow translation speed of Morakot itself over Taiwan. In this study, the influence of the translation speed is particularly emphasized. Based on the EnKF data assimilation, an innovative method is applied to perform ensemble simulations with several designated translation speeds of Morakot using the WRF model. Thus the influence of the translation speed on the amount of accumulated rainfall over Taiwan can be quantitatively evaluated. In the control simulation with observed translation speed, the maximum amount and geographic pattern of accumulated rainfall during the landfall period of Morakot are generally consistent with the observations, though the detailed overall distributions of accumulated rainfall is mostly underestimated, resulting in the low bias of the frequency distribution of the accumulated rainfall. In a simulation with nearly-doubled translation speed of Morakot, the maximum accumulated rainfall is decreased by 33% than that in the control simulation, while the rainfall distribution over Taiwan remains similar. In addition, the 28 ensemble members can further provide additional information in terms of their spread and other statistics. The results from ensemble members reveal the usefulness of ensemble simulations for the quantitative precipitation forecast

Fabrication and characterisation of hybrid photodiodes based on PCPDTBT–ZnO active layers

We report the fabrication and characterisation of an organic–inorganic hybrid photodiode (HPD) based on PCPDTBT and Zinc Oxide (ZnO) photoactive layers. The main benefit of using these materials is that multi spectral light sensing from the UV through to the Near Infrared is achieved, encompassing wavelengths ∼350–870 nm. To our knowledge, this is one of the widest range responses reported for an inorganic–organic hybrid photodiode. The evaluation of the technology shows the devices exhibit one of the lowest levels of dark currents reported for a HPD, but some limitations exist due to a low on–off ratio and non-linearity of the responsivity at low incident power. The stability of devices made with PCPDTBT:ZnO active layers is compared to more commonly reported P3HT:ZnO devices in dark and it is shown that using PCPDTBT substantially improves lifetime

Secretion of Genome-Free Hepatitis B Virus – Single Strand Blocking Model for Virion Morphogenesis of Para-retrovirus

As a para-retrovirus, hepatitis B virus (HBV) is an enveloped virus with a double-stranded (DS) DNA genome that is replicated by reverse transcription of an RNA intermediate, the pregenomic RNA or pgRNA. HBV assembly begins with the formation of an “immature” nucleocapsid (NC) incorporating pgRNA, which is converted via reverse transcription within the maturing NC to the DS DNA genome. Only the mature, DS DNA-containing NCs are enveloped and secreted as virions whereas immature NCs containing RNA or single-stranded (SS) DNA are not enveloped. The current model for selective virion morphogenesis postulates that accumulation of DS DNA within the NC induces a “maturation signal” that, in turn, triggers its envelopment and secretion. However, we have found, by careful quantification of viral DNA and NCs in HBV virions secreted in vitro and in vivo, that the vast majority of HBV virions (over 90%) contained no DNA at all, indicating that NCs with no genome were enveloped and secreted as empty virions (i.e., enveloped NCs with no DNA). Furthermore, viral mutants bearing mutations precluding any DNA synthesis secreted exclusively empty virions. Thus, viral DNA synthesis is not required for HBV virion morphogenesis. On the other hand, NCs containing RNA or SS DNA were excluded from virion formation. The secretion of DS DNA-containing as well as empty virions on one hand, and the lack of secretion of virions containing single-stranded (SS) DNA or RNA on the other, prompted us to propose an alternative, “Single Strand Blocking” model to explain selective HBV morphogenesis whereby SS nucleic acid within the NC negatively regulates NC envelopment, which is relieved upon second strand DNA synthesis

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta

f0(980) production in inelastic pp collisions at s = 5.02 TeV

The measurement of the production of f0(980) in inelastic pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 5.02 TeV is presented. This is the first reported measurement of inclusive f0(980) yield at LHC energies. The production is measured at midrapidity, |y| pi+pi- hadronic decay channel using the ALICE detector. The pT-differential yields are compared to those of pions, protons and ϕ mesons as well as to predictions from the HERWIG 7.2 QCD-inspired Monte Carlo event generator and calculations from a coalescence model that uses the AMPT model as an input. The ratio of the pT-integrated yield of f0(980) relative to pions is compared to measurements in e+e- and pp collisions at lower energies and predictions from statistical hadronisation models and HERWIG 7.2. A mild collision energy dependence of the f0(980) to pion production is observed in pp collisions from SPS to LHC energies. All considered models underpredict the pT-integrated 2f0(980)/(pi+ + pi-) ratio. The prediction from the canonical statistical hadronisation model assuming a zero total strangeness content of f0(980) is consistent with the data within 1.9σ and is the closest to the data. The results provide an essential reference for future measurements of the particle yield and nuclear modification in p–Pb and Pb–Pb collisions, which have been proposed to be instrumental to probe the elusive nature and quark composition of the f0(980) scalar meson

Neutral to charged kaon yield fluctuations in Pb – Pb collisions at sNN=2.76 TeV

We present the first measurement of event-by-event fluctuations in the kaon sector in Pb – Pb collisions at √sNN = 2.76 TeV with the ALICE detector at the LHC. The robust fluctuation correlator νdyn is used to evaluate the magnitude of fluctuations of the relative yields of neutral and charged kaons, as well as the relative yields of charged kaons, as a function of collision centrality and selected kinematic ranges. While the correlator νdyn[K+, K− ] exhibits a scaling approximately in inverse proportion of the charged particle multiplicity, νdyn[K0 S , K± ] features a significant deviation from such scaling. Within uncertainties, the value of νdyn[K0S , K± ] is independent of the selected transverse momentum interval, while it exhibits a pseudorapidity dependence. The results are compared with HIJING, AMPT and EPOS–LHC predictions, and are further discussed in the context of the possible production of disoriented chiral condensates in central Pb – Pb collisions

Light (anti)nuclei production in Pb-Pb collisions at sNN=5.02 TeV

The measurement of the production of deuterons, tritons and 3 He and their antiparticles in Pb-Pb collisions at √s NN = 5.02 TeV is presented in this article. The measurements are carried out at midrapidity (|y| < 0.5) as a function of collision centrality using the ALICE detector. The pT -integrated yields, the coalescence parameters and the ratios to protons and antiprotons are reported and compared with nucleosynthesis models. The comparison of these results in different collision systems at different center-of-mass collision energies reveals a suppression of nucleus production in small systems. In the Statistical Hadronisation Model framework, this can be explained by a small correlation volume where the baryon number is conserved, as already shown in previous fluctuation analyses. However, a different size of the correlation volume is required to describe the proton yields in the same data sets. The coalescence model can describe this suppression by the fact that the wave functions of the nuclei are large and the fireball size starts to become comparable and even much smaller than the actual nucleus at low multiplicities