Geology, Volcanology, and Petrology of Cerro Bravo, a Young, Dactic, Stratovolcano in West-Central Colombia

The northernmost active Andean volcano, Cerro Bravo is a small, young, and very explosive stratovolcano. Cerro Bravo has produced voluminous tephra deposits, that are found\u3e 30 km away, as well as, pumice flow deposits, block and ash flow deposits, and high-aspect lava flows, which are found proximally to the volcano. There have been eight episodes of activity during the past 6250±110 years (Herd, 1982), with the most recent \u3c200 years ago and the present being a period of quiescence with no visible activity or thermal manifestations. Stratigraphic relationships suggest the occurrence of an initial explosive phase and a concluding effusive phase of activity during individual episodes. The products of volcanic activity at Cerro Bravo are a chemically and mineralogically monotonous suite of medium-K dacite and high-silica andesite (59.2- 67.5% SiO2 pumices and lavas. The dominant phenocrysts present are plagioclase and hornblende (oxyhomblende in lavas) with lesser quantities of orthopyroxene, titanomagnetite, and rare augite and biotite also present. Petrology and eruption dynamics suggest the existence of a frequently mixing, zoned magma chamber, with 4 wt. % H2O and temperatures of 975-850°C, which is getting smaller with time. Future activity will likely be smaller volumetrically, but with greater frequency. The potential hazards of Cerro Bravo are great. Air fall would likely be the source of the greatest mortality and damage due to the remote location of the volcano. Cerro Bravo has consistently deposited pumice on the city of Manizales, 20 km to the west, totaling in excess of 3 m of tephra. Due to the extended nature of activity at the volcano, the wide airfall distribution, and the massive potential modification of the hydrologic system, renewed activity at Cerro Bravo would result in a major long-term impact on the region

Quantifying Exceptionally Large Populations of \u3ci\u3eAcropora\u3c/i\u3e spp. Corals Off Belize Using Sub-Meter Satellite Imagery Classification

Caribbean coral reefs have experienced dramatic declines in live coral cover in recent decades. Primary branching framework Caribbean corals, Acropora cervicornis (Lamarck, 1816) and Acropora palmata (Lamarck, 1816), have suffered the greatest collapse. Coral Gardens, Belize, is one of few remaining, and perhaps the largest, refugia for abundant, healthy, but undocumented populations of both Acropora species in the Caribbean Sea. In the present study, GeoEye-1 multispectral satellite imagery of a 25 km2 reefal area near Ambergris Caye, Belize, was analyzed to identify live Acropora spp. cover. We used a supervised classification to predict occurrence of areas with live Acropora spp. and to separate them from other benthic cover types, such as sandy bottom, seagrass, and mixed massive coral species. We tested classification accuracy in the field, and new Acropora spp. patches were mapped using differential GPS. Of 11 predicted new areas of Acropora spp., eight were composed of healthy Acropora spp. An unsupervised classification of a red (Band 3):blue (Band 1) ratio calculation of the image successfully separated Acropora corals from other benthic cover, with an overall accuracy of 90%. Our study identified 7.58 ha of reef dominated by Acropora spp. at Coral Gardens, which is one of the largest populations in the Caribbean Sea. We suggest that Coral Gardens may be an important site for the study of modern Acropora spp. resilience. Our technique can be used as an efficient tool for genera-specific identification, monitoring, and conservation of populations of endangered Acropora spp

Coral Gardens Reef, Belize: An \u3ci\u3eAcropora\u3c/i\u3e spp. Refugium under Threat in a Warming World

Live coral cover has declined precipitously on Caribbean reefs in recent decades. Acropora cervicornis coral has been particularly decimated, and few Western Atlantic Acropora spp. refugia remain. Coral Gardens, Belize, was identified in 2020 as a long-term refugium for this species. This study assesses changes in live A. cervicornis coral abundance over time at Coral Gardens to monitor the stability of A. cervicornis corals, and to explore potential threats to this important refugium. Live coral cover was documented annually from 2012– 2019 along five permanent transects. In situ sea-surface temperature data were collected at Coral Gardens throughout the study period and compared with calibrated satellite data to calculate Maximum Monthly Mean (MMM) temperatures and Degree Heating Weeks (DHW). Data on bathymetry, sediment, substrate, herbivore abundance, and macroalgal abundance were collected in 2014 and 2019 to assess potential threats to Coral Gardens. Live coral cover declined at all five transect sites over the study period. The greatest loss of live coral occurred between 2016 and 2017, coincident with the earliest and highest maxi- mum average temperatures recorded at the study site, and the passage of a hurricane in 2016. Structural storm damage was not observed at Coral Gardens, though live coral cover declined after the passage of the storm. Uranium-thorium (230Th) dating of 26 dead in situ fragments of A. cervicornis collected in 2015 from Coral Gardens revealed no correlation between coral mortality and tropical storms and hurricanes in the recent past. Our data suggest that several other common drivers for coral decline (i.e. herbivory, predation, sedimentation, pH) may likely be ruled out for Coral Gardens. At the end of the study period, Coral Gardens satisfied most criteria for refugium status. However, the early onset, higher mean, and longer duration of above-average temperatures, as well as intermittent temperature anomalies likely played a critical role in the stability of this refugium. We suggest that temperature stress in 2016 and perhaps 2015 may have increased coral tissue vulnerability at Coral Gardens to a passing hurricane, threatening the status of this unique refugium

Constraining functional hypotheses: controls on the morphology of the concavo-convex brachiopod Rafinesquina

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/72447/1/j.1502-3931.1998.tb00519.x.pd

Giant rafted pumice blocks from the most recent eruption of Taupo volcano, New Zealand: Insights from palaeomagnetic and textural data

Giant blocks of pumice lie strewn along a former shoreline of intracaldera Lake Taupo, New Zealand, and are the sole subaerial evidence of the most recent volcanism at the Taupo supervolcano. Geochemically they are identical to material erupted during the complex and multiphase 1.8 ka Taupo eruption, which they post-date by one to two decades. The blocks, some of which are >10 m long, show complex jointing patterns indicative of both surface chilling and continued interior expansion, as well as heterogeneous vesicularity, with dense rims (mean density 917 kg/m3) grading via an intervening transition zone (mean density 844 kg/m3) into a more highly vesicular interior (mean density 815 kg/m3). Analysis of thermal demagnetisation data indicates significant reorientation of the blocks as they cooled through a series of blocking temperatures. Some parts of block rims cooled to below 580 °C well before emplacement on the shore, whereas other parts in the interior and transition zones, which cooled more slowly, acquired different orientations before stranding. Some block interiors cooled after blocks were finally deposited, and record the direction of the 1.8 ka field. The blocks are believed to be derived from one or both of a pair of rhyolitic lava domes that developed on the bed of Lake Taupo several decades after the climactic Taupo eruption over the inferred vent area.These, and similar giant rafted pumice blocks in other marine and lacustrine settings raise a number of questions about how volatile-rich felsic magma can be erupted underwater with only limited thermal fragmentation. Furthermore, the prolonged flotation of out-sized fragments of vesiculated magma formed during subaqueous dome-growth contrasts with the rapid sinking of smaller pieces of hot plinian pumice under laboratory conditions. The genesis of pumice forming the blocks is not entirely clear. Most simply the blocks may represent part of a vesiculated carapace of a growing lava dome, broken loose as the dome grew and deformed then rising buoyantly to the surface. Parts of the carapace could also be released by local magma-water explosions. Some textures of the pumice, however, suggest fresher magma released from beneath the carapace. This may suggest that silicic dikes and pillows/pods intruded into a growing mound of silicic hyaloclastite, itself formed by quench fragmentation and thermal granulation of the dike margins. This fragmental cover would have inhibited cooling of a still-hot and actively vesiculating interior, which was then released to float to the surface by gravitational destabilisation and collapse of the growing pile. Following their formation, the large fragments of pumice floated to the lake's surface, where they were blown ashore to become embedded in accumulating transgressive shoreface sediments and continue cooling

Limpet Shells from the Aterian Level 8 of El Harhoura 2 Cave (Témara, Morocco): Preservation State of Crossed-Foliated Layers

International audienceThe exploitation of mollusks by the first anatomically modern humans is a central question for archaeologists. This paper focuses on level 8 (dated around * 100 ka BP) of El Har-houra 2 Cave, located along the coastline in the Rabat-Témara region (Morocco). The large quantity of Patella sp. shells found in this level highlights questions regarding their origin and preservation. This study presents an estimation of the preservation status of these shells. We focus here on the diagenetic evolution of both the microstructural patterns and organic components of crossed-foliated shell layers, in order to assess the viability of further investigations based on shell layer minor elements, isotopic or biochemical compositions. The results show that the shells seem to be well conserved, with microstructural patterns preserved down to sub-micrometric scales, and that some organic components are still present in situ. But faint taphonomic degradations affecting both mineral and organic components are nonetheless evidenced, such as the disappearance of organic envelopes surrounding crossed-foliated lamellae, combined with a partial recrystallization of the lamellae. Our results provide a solid case-study of the early stages of the diagenetic evolution of crossed-foliated shell layers. Moreover, they highlight the fact that extreme caution must be taken before using fossil shells for palaeoenvironmental or geochronological reconstructions. Without thorough investigation, the alteration patterns illustrated here would easily have gone unnoticed. However, these degradations are liable to bias any proxy based on the elemental, isotopic or biochemical composition of the shells. This study also provides significant data concerning human subsistence behavior: the presence of notches and the good preservation state of limpet shells (no dissolution/recrystallization, no bioerosion and no abrasion/fragmentation aspects) would attest that limpets were gathered alive with tools by Middle Palaeolithic (Aterian) populations in North Africa for consumption

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019