Using Markov Models and Statistics to Learn, Extract, Fuse, and Detect Patterns in Raw Data

Many systems are partially stochastic in nature. We have derived data driven approaches for extracting stochastic state machines (Markov models) directly from observed data. This chapter provides an overview of our approach with numerous practical applications. We have used this approach for inferring shipping patterns, exploiting computer system side-channel information, and detecting botnet activities. For contrast, we include a related data-driven statistical inferencing approach that detects and localizes radiation sources.Comment: Accepted by 2017 International Symposium on Sensor Networks, Systems and Securit

The effect of asymmetries on stock index return value-at-risk estimates

It is widely accepted that equity return volatility increases more following negative shocks rather than positive shocks. However, much of value-at-risk (VaR) analysis relies on the assumption that returns are normally distributed (a symmetric distribution). This article considers the effect of asymmetries on the evaluation and accuracy of VaR by comparing estimates based on various models

Epistemic and social scripts in computer-supported collaborative learning

Collaborative learning in computer-supported learning environments typically means that learners work on tasks together, discussing their individual perspectives via text-based media or videoconferencing, and consequently acquire knowledge. Collaborative learning, however, is often sub-optimal with respect to how learners work on the concepts that are supposed to be learned and how learners interact with each other. One possibility to improve collaborative learning environments is to conceptualize epistemic scripts, which specify how learners work on a given task, and social scripts, which structure how learners interact with each other. In this contribution, two studies will be reported that investigated the effects of epistemic and social scripts in a text-based computer-supported learning environment and in a videoconferencing learning environment in order to foster the individual acquisition of knowledge. In each study the factors ‘epistemic script’ and ‘social script’ have been independently varied in a 2×2-factorial design. 182 university students of Educational Science participated in these two studies. Results of both studies show that social scripts can be substantially beneficial with respect to the individual acquisition of knowledge, whereas epistemic scripts apparently do not to lead to the expected effects

Seasonal size variation in the predatory cladoceran Bythotrephes cederstroemii in Lake Michigan

1.  Dry weight, body length and spine length were measured for the exotic cladoceran Bythotrephes cederstroemii collected from offshore and inshore stations in southeastern Lake Michigan. Average dry weight of each developmental stage exhibited seasonal variation by a factor of more than 5. 2.  Mean dry weight of Bythotrephes was closely correlated with water temperature. Contrary to the inverse relationship between water temperature and body size frequently observed for other invertebrates, the dry weight of Bythotrephes increased at higher ambient temperatures. 3.  No significant correlation was observed between abundances of major zooplankton taxa and the dry weight of Bythotrephes . An indirect effect of temperature on prey consumption may cause seasonal variation in dry weight of Bythotrephes in Lake Michigan. 4.  Distances between adjacent pairs of barbs, added to the caudal spine with each moult, are significantly shorter in Bythotrephes which produce resting eggs. Less material investment in the exoskeleton of sexually reproducing females was observed in favour of growth and reproduction.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/74641/1/j.1365-2427.1994.tb00842.x.pd

Exploring leadership in multi-sectoral partnerships

This article explores some critical aspects of leadership in the context of multi-sectoral partnerships. It focuses on leadership in practice and asks the question, `How do managers experience and perceive leadership in such partnerships?' The study contributes to the debate on whether leadership in a multi-sectoral partnership context differs from that within a single organization. It is based on the accounts of practising managers working in complex partnerships. The article highlights a number of leadership challenges faced by those working in multi-sectoral partnerships. Partnership practitioners were clear that leadership in partnerships was more complex than in single organizations. However, it was more difficult for them to agree a consensus on the essential nature of leadership in partnership. We suggest that a first-, second- and third-person approach might be a way of better interpreting leadership in the context of partnerships

Chronic Stress, Sense of Belonging, and Depression Among Survivors of Traumatic Brain Injury

To test whether chronic stress, interpersonal relatedness, and cognitive burden could explain depression after traumatic brain injury (TBI). Design : A nonprobability sample of 75 mild-to-moderately injured TBI survivors and their significant others, were recruited from five TBI day-rehabilitation programs. All participants were within 2 years of the date of injury and were living in the community. Methods : During face-to-face interviews, demographic information, and estimates of brain injury severity were obtained and participants completed a cognitive battery of tests of directed attention and short-term memory, responses to the Perceived Stress Scale, Interpersonal Relatedness Inventory, Sense of Belonging Instrument, Neurobehavioral Functioning Inventory, and Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale;. Findings : Chronic stress was significantly and positively related to post-TBI depression. Depression and postinjury sense of belonging were negatively related. Social support and results from the cognitive battery did not explain depression. Conclusions : Postinjury chronic stress and sense of belonging were strong predictors of post-injury depression and are variables amenable to interventions by nurses in community health, neurological centers, or rehabilitation clinics. Future studies are needed to examine how these variables change over time during the recovery process.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/72593/1/j.1547-5069.2002.00221.x.pd

Search for direct production of charginos and neutralinos in events with three leptons and missing transverse momentum in √s = 7 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for the direct production of charginos and neutralinos in final states with three electrons or muons and missing transverse momentum is presented. The analysis is based on 4.7 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data delivered by the Large Hadron Collider and recorded with the ATLAS detector. Observations are consistent with Standard Model expectations in three signal regions that are either depleted or enriched in Z-boson decays. Upper limits at 95% confidence level are set in R-parity conserving phenomenological minimal supersymmetric models and in simplified models, significantly extending previous results

Jet size dependence of single jet suppression in lead-lead collisions at sqrt(s(NN)) = 2.76 TeV with the ATLAS detector at the LHC

Measurements of inclusive jet suppression in heavy ion collisions at the LHC provide direct sensitivity to the physics of jet quenching. In a sample of lead-lead collisions at sqrt(s) = 2.76 TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of approximately 7 inverse microbarns, ATLAS has measured jets with a calorimeter over the pseudorapidity interval |eta| < 2.1 and over the transverse momentum range 38 < pT < 210 GeV. Jets were reconstructed using the anti-kt algorithm with values for the distance parameter that determines the nominal jet radius of R = 0.2, 0.3, 0.4 and 0.5. The centrality dependence of the jet yield is characterized by the jet "central-to-peripheral ratio," Rcp. Jet production is found to be suppressed by approximately a factor of two in the 10% most central collisions relative to peripheral collisions. Rcp varies smoothly with centrality as characterized by the number of participating nucleons. The observed suppression is only weakly dependent on jet radius and transverse momentum. These results provide the first direct measurement of inclusive jet suppression in heavy ion collisions and complement previous measurements of dijet transverse energy imbalance at the LHC.Comment: 15 pages plus author list (30 pages total), 8 figures, 2 tables, submitted to Physics Letters B. All figures including auxiliary figures are available at http://atlas.web.cern.ch/Atlas/GROUPS/PHYSICS/PAPERS/HION-2011-02

Measurement of the polarisation of W bosons produced with large transverse momentum in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV with the ATLAS experiment

This paper describes an analysis of the angular distribution of W->enu and W->munu decays, using data from pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector at the LHC in 2010, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of about 35 pb^-1. Using the decay lepton transverse momentum and the missing transverse energy, the W decay angular distribution projected onto the transverse plane is obtained and analysed in terms of helicity fractions f0, fL and fR over two ranges of W transverse momentum (ptw): 35 < ptw < 50 GeV and ptw > 50 GeV. Good agreement is found with theoretical predictions. For ptw > 50 GeV, the values of f0 and fL-fR, averaged over charge and lepton flavour, are measured to be : f0 = 0.127 +/- 0.030 +/- 0.108 and fL-fR = 0.252 +/- 0.017 +/- 0.030, where the first uncertainties are statistical, and the second include all systematic effects.Comment: 19 pages plus author list (34 pages total), 9 figures, 11 tables, revised author list, matches European Journal of Physics C versio

Observation of a new chi_b state in radiative transitions to Upsilon(1S) and Upsilon(2S) at ATLAS

The chi_b(nP) quarkonium states are produced in proton-proton collisions at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV and recorded by the ATLAS detector. Using a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.4 fb^-1, these states are reconstructed through their radiative decays to Upsilon(1S,2S) with Upsilon->mu+mu-. In addition to the mass peaks corresponding to the decay modes chi_b(1P,2P)->Upsilon(1S)gamma, a new structure centered at a mass of 10.530+/-0.005 (stat.)+/-0.009 (syst.) GeV is also observed, in both the Upsilon(1S)gamma and Upsilon(2S)gamma decay modes. This is interpreted as the chi_b(3P) system.Comment: 5 pages plus author list (18 pages total), 2 figures, 1 table, corrected author list, matches final version in Physical Review Letter