Financial Risk Assessment using Machine Learning Engineering (FRAME): Scenario based Quantitative Analysis under Uncertainty

Risk management functions, under uncertainty, in the Banking Industry have been changing and will continue to change with the recent advancements and innovations. Embracing uncertainty and working with measurable risk becomes critical, therefore quantitative risk severity assessment is critical for sustainable financial excellence. In this paper, the authors propose Financial Risk Assessment using Machine Learning Engineering (FRAME)  based on artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), which has two significant contributions. Firstly, adoption of machine learning models for banking towards risk quantification and secondly, granularity that emphases on customized logic via multi-factor analysis modeling at different levels of abstraction connecting machine learning models. These contributions will help Financial Institutions (Fis) that will gain the most benefits and opportunities.  In a nutshell, the framework analysis presented in this paper is intended as a step towards building a framework of risk modeling from qualitative to quantitative, viewed at different levels of abstraction to access risk severity in the banking applications

Labelled Classifier with Weighted Drift Trigger Model using Machine Learning for Streaming Data Analysis

The term “data-drift” refers to a difference between the data used to test and validate a model and the data used to deploy it in production. It is possible for data to drift for a variety of reasons. The track of time is an important consideration. Data mining procedures such as classification, clustering, and data stream mining are critical to information extraction and knowledge discovery because of the possibility for significant data type and dimensionality changes over time. The amount of research on mining and analyzing real-time streaming data has risen dramatically in the recent decade. As the name suggests, it’s a stream of data that originates from a number of sources. Analyzing information assets has taken on increased significance in the quest for real-time analytics fulfilment. Traditional mining methods are no longer effective since data is acting in a different way. Aside from storage and temporal constraints, data streams provide additional challenges because just a single pass of the data is required. The dynamic nature of data streams makes it difficult to run any mining method, such as classification, clustering, or indexing, in a single iteration of data. This research identifies concept drift in streaming data classification. For data classification techniques, a Labelled Classifier with Weighted Drift Trigger Model (LCWDTM) is proposed that provides categorization and the capacity to tackle concept drift difficulties. The proposed classifier efficiency is contrasted with the existing classifiers and the results represent that the proposed model in data drift detection is accurate and efficient

Propellant Grade Hydrazine in Mono/Bi-propellant Thrusters: Preparation and Performance Evaluation

Propellant grade hydrazine was prepared with 64 per cent yield and 95.5 per cent purity. Purity of the propellant grade hydrazine was determined using wet chemical, gas chromatographic (GC) and eudiometric methods. It was observed that the compositions containing blends of hydrazine-methyl alcohol-ammonium nitrate and hydrazine-methyl alcohol-ammonium perchlorate were not found to be frozen even after cooling to -65 °C for 30 minutes. Mono and bi-propellant thrusters were designed and developed to demonstrate the performance of prepared propellant grade hydrazine as a promising rocket fuel. Five static tests with 22 N thruster and one static test with 1 N thruster were performed successfully in mono-propellant mode. The hurdles of chamber pressure oscillations were overcome by compact packing of the catalyst. The desired decomposition and chamber pressure were achieved. One static test was performed successfully with 60 N bi-propellant thruster. The desired chamber pressure and thrust were achieved. The combustion was smooth and C* achieved was higher than that of UH-25, N2O4 combination. The performance of prepared propellant grade hydrazine shows it as a promising rocket fuels.Defence Science Journal, Vol. 65, No. 1, January 2015, pp.31-38, DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.14429/dsj.65.798

Green Synthesis of Silver Nanoparticles using Litsea glutinosa L. Leaves and Stem Extracts and their Antibacterial Efficacy

The present study explores the green approach for the preparation of silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) through the reduction of silver nitrate by the cell-free stem and leaf aqueous extracts of Litsea glutinosa (L.glutinosa) and its potential antibacterial activity. The analytical instruments include scanning electron microscopy, Fourier transforms infrared spectroscopy, UV-visible spectroscopy, and X-ray diffraction spectroscopy confirmed the synthesis of smaller, uniformly spherical AgNPs (10-40 nm). The average crystalline size of prepared AgNPs produced by L. glutinosa leaf extract was found to be 19 mm. From UV-visible spectral analysis, the maximum absorbance peak appeared at 444 nm for leaf extract AgNPs different from stem extract AgNPs (422 nm), which are found to be specific for AgNPs. The L.glutinosa stem extract-assisted AgNPs have shown significant antibacterial activity against Bacillus subtilis (Gram-positive) and Escherichia coli (Gram-negative) in comparison to Gentamycin. Hence, the AgNPs obtained by green synthesis can be therapeutically explored against bacterial infections

A bibliography of parasites and diseases of marine and freshwater fishes of India

With the increasing demand for fish as human food, aquaculture both in freshwater and salt water is rapidly developing over the world. In the developing countries, fishes are being raised as food. In many countries fish farming is a very important economic activity. The most recent branch, mariculture, has shown advances in raising fishes in brackish, estuarine and bay waters, in which marine, anadromous and catadromous fishes have successfully been grown and maintained

Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability

The impact of surgical delay on resectability of colorectal cancer: An international prospective cohort study

AIM: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has provided a unique opportunity to explore the impact of surgical delays on cancer resectability. This study aimed to compare resectability for colorectal cancer patients undergoing delayed versus non-delayed surgery. METHODS: This was an international prospective cohort study of consecutive colorectal cancer patients with a decision for curative surgery (January-April 2020). Surgical delay was defined as an operation taking place more than 4 weeks after treatment decision, in a patient who did not receive neoadjuvant therapy. A subgroup analysis explored the effects of delay in elective patients only. The impact of longer delays was explored in a sensitivity analysis. The primary outcome was complete resection, defined as curative resection with an R0 margin. RESULTS: Overall, 5453 patients from 304 hospitals in 47 countries were included, of whom 6.6% (358/5453) did not receive their planned operation. Of the 4304 operated patients without neoadjuvant therapy, 40.5% (1744/4304) were delayed beyond 4 weeks. Delayed patients were more likely to be older, men, more comorbid, have higher body mass index and have rectal cancer and early stage disease. Delayed patients had higher unadjusted rates of complete resection (93.7% vs. 91.9%, P = 0.032) and lower rates of emergency surgery (4.5% vs. 22.5%, P < 0.001). After adjustment, delay was not associated with a lower rate of complete resection (OR 1.18, 95% CI 0.90-1.55, P = 0.224), which was consistent in elective patients only (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.69-1.27, P = 0.672). Longer delays were not associated with poorer outcomes. CONCLUSION: One in 15 colorectal cancer patients did not receive their planned operation during the first wave of COVID-19. Surgical delay did not appear to compromise resectability, raising the hypothesis that any reduction in long-term survival attributable to delays is likely to be due to micro-metastatic disease

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019

Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: A pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

© The Author(s) 2018. Background: Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure. Methods: We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probittransformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure. Results: In 2005-16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the highincome Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association. Conclusions: Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups