Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. Methods We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61.7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61.4-61.9) in 1980 to 71.8 years (71.5-72.2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11.3 years (3.7-17.4), to 62.6 years (56.5-70.2). Total deaths increased by 4.1% (2.6-5.6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55.8 million (54.9 million to 56.6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17.0% (15.8-18.1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14.1% (12.6-16.0) to 39.8 million (39.2 million to 40.5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13.1% (11.9-14.3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42.1%, 39.1-44.6), malaria (43.1%, 34.7-51.8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29.8%, 24.8-34.9), and maternal disorders (29.1%, 19.3-37.1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death. Interpretation At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

M&A Trends in Local Public Transportation in Italy

This paper analyzes thirty-two cases including alliances, merger consortiums, acquisitions and partnerships between diverse major Italian companies in the Local Public Transportation Sector. In order to single out the principal trends, special attention has been paid to the aims of the players, their needs and the strategies implemented. The actions taken by the institutions and the competent authorities regarding the regulations have also had a very important role, mostly after the Law 422/97 (Decreto Burlando), that, by introducing transparent public selections, has forced Local Authorities to modify players’ strategies to become more efficient and sustainable by promoting, liberalizing and modernizing the service. The players, accustomed to a competition-free framework, have had to face the change by M&A processes establishing alliances and collaborations, proactively redefining their positions, to ward off the threats of liberalization

Willingness to use PrEP among female university students in Lesotho.

Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV-negative individuals at high risk was introduced in Lesotho in April 2016. To assess the feasibility and acceptability of PrEP in Lesotho and to study the attitudes and beliefs around HIV risk and prevention measures among young women, between September and December 2016 we asked 302 female university students at fourteen higher education institutions in Lesotho about their sexual behavior, experiences of sexual coercion and abuse, HIV risk perception, willingness to use PrEP, as well as their attitudes toward condom use and self-administration of daily medications. Overall, 57.3% of the sample reported perceiving themselves at risk of acquiring HIV and 32.1% reported being strongly willing to use PrEP if it were available in their community. In a multivariate mediation analysis, perceived HIV risk was associated with 11.5 percentage points increase in likelihood of using PrEP (p = 0.041). Multiple concurrent sexual partnership was associated with 16.1 percentage points increase in likelihood of self-perceived HIV risk (p = 0.007), while having sexual partners in polygamous relationships was associated with 17.8 percentage points increase in likelihood of self-perceived HIV risk (p = 0.002) and the mediated indirect effect accounted for 18.2% of its total effect. Those who reported strong adherence to antibiotics were 23.1 percentage points more likely to express willingness to use PrEP than those who did not (p = 0.004), and those who reported to dislike condoms were 19.1 percentage points more likely to be willing to use PrEP than those who did not report aversion to condom use: these effect were direct and not mediated by HIV risk perception. Intimate partner violence (IPV) in the network of peers was also directly associated with willingness to use PrEP and its effect was not significantly mediated by HIV risk perception: those who had friends who experienced intimate partner violence were 14.9 percentage points more likely to be willing to use PrEP than those who did not report IPV in their network of peers (p = 0.009). These findings support the inclusion of individuals with multiple concurrent sexual partners among the key populations for PrEP provision and confirm that willingness to use PrEP is not solely driven by HIV risk perception. They also indicate that the presence of IPV in peer networks is related to one's willingness to use PrEP. PrEP service provision may generate synergies with IPV prevention programs when offered within this framework

Alliances and groupings in the local public transportation sector. A preliminary survey of strategic motivations

This paper analyzes thirty-two cases including alliances, merger consortiums, acquisitions and partnerships between diverse major Italian companies in the Local Public Transportation Sector. In order to single out the principal trends, special attention has been paid to the aims of the players, their needs and the strategies implemented. The actions taken by the institutions and the competent authorities regarding the regulations have also had a very important role, mostly after the Law 422/97 (Decreto Burlando), that, by introducing transparent public selections, has forced Local Authorities to modify players’ strategies to become more efficient and sustainable by promoting, liberalizing and modernizing the service. The players, accustomed to a competition-free framework, have had to face the change by M&A processes establishing alliances and collaborations, proactively redefining their positions, to ward off the threats of liberalization

Access to HIV care and treatment for migrants between Lesotho and South Africa: a mixed methods study

Abstract Background HIV treatment and care for migrants is affected by their mobility and interaction with HIV treatment programs and health care systems in different countries. To assess healthcare needs, preferences and accessibility barriers of HIV-infected migrant populations in high HIV burden, borderland districts of Lesotho. Methods We selected 15 health facilities accessed by high patient volumes in three districts of Maseru, Leribe and Mafeteng. We used a mixed methods approach by administering a survey questionnaire to consenting HIV infected individuals on anti-retroviral therapy (ART) and utilizing a purposive sampling procedure to recruit health care providers for qualitative in-depth interviews across facilities. Results Out of 524 HIV-infected migrants enrolled in the study, 315 (60.1%) were from urban and 209 (39.9%) from rural sites. Of these, 344 (65.6%) were women, 375 (71.6%) were aged between 26 and 45 years and 240 (45.8%) were domestic workers. A total of 486 (92.7%) preferred to collect their medications primarily in Lesotho compared to South Africa. From 506 who responded to the question on preferred dispensing intervals, 63.1% (n = 319) preferred 5–6 month ARV refills, 30.2% (n = 153) chose 3–4 month refills and only 6.7% (n = 34) opted for the standard-of-care 1–2 month refills. A total of 126 (24.4%) defaulted on their treatment and the primary reason for defaulting was failure to get to Lesotho to collect medication (59.5%, 75/126). Treatment default rates were higher in urban than rural areas (28.3% versus 18.4%, p = 0.011). Service providers indicated a lack of transfer letters as the major drawback in facilitating care and treatment for migrants, followed by discrimination based on nationality or language. Service providers indicated that most patients preferred all treatment services to be rendered in Lesotho, as they perceive the treatment provided in South Africa to be different often less strong or with more serious side effects. Conclusion Existing healthcare systems in both South Africa and Lesotho experience challenges in providing proper care and treatment for HIV infected migrants. A need for a differentiated model of ART delivery to HIV infected migrants that allows for multi-month scripting and dispensing is warranted

Additional file 1: of Access to HIV care and treatment for migrants between Lesotho and South Africa: a mixed methods study

Survey data from 524 HIV infected migrants, Lesotho, 2016. (XLSX 44 kb

La carga de enfermedad en España: resultados del Estudio de la Carga Global de las Enfermedades 2016

Background and objectives: The global burden of disease (GBD) project measures the health of populations worldwide on an annual basis, and results are available by country. We used the estimates of the GBD to summarise the state of health in Spain in 2016 and report trends in mortality and morbidity from 1990 to 2016. Material and methods: GBD 2016 estimated disease burden due to 333 diseases and injuries, and 84 risk factors. The GBD list of causes is hierarchical and includes 3 top level categories, namely: (1) communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases;(2) non-communicable diseases (NCDs), and (3)injuries. Mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), risk factors, and progress towards the sustainable development goals (SDGs) are presented based on the GBD 2016 data in Spain. Results: There were 418,516 deaths in Spain in 2016, from a total population of 46.5 million, and 80.5% of them occurred in those aged 70 years and older. Overall, NCDs were the main cause of death: 388,617 (95% uncertainty interval 374,959–402,486), corresponding to 92.8% of all deaths. They were followed by 3.6% due to injuries with 15,052 (13,902–17,107) deaths, and 3.5% communicable diseases with 14,847 (13,208–16,482) deaths. The 5 leading specific causes of death were ischaemic heart disease (IHD, 14.6% of all deaths), Alzheimer disease and other dementias (13.6%), stroke (7.1%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (6.9%), and lung cancer (5.0%). Remarkable increases in mortality from 1990 to 2016 were observed in other cancers, lower respiratory infections, chronic kidney disease, and other cardiovascular disease, among others. On the contrary, road injuries moved down from 8th to 32nd position, and diabetes from 6th to 10th. Low back and neck pain became the number one cause of DALYs in Spain in 2016, just surpassing IHD, while Alzheimer disease moved from 9th to 3rd position. The greatest changes in DALYs were observed for road injuries dropping from 4th to 16th position, and congenital disorders from 17th to 35th; conversely, oral disorders rose from 25th to 17th. Overall, smoking is by far the most relevant risk factor in Spain, followed by high blood pressure, high body mass index, alcohol use, and high fasting plasma glucose. Finally, Spain scored 74.3 of 100 points in the SDG index classification in 2016, and the main national drivers of detrimental health in SDGs were alcohol consumption, smoking and child obesity. An increase to 80.3 points is projected in 2030. Conclusion: Low back and neck pain was the most important contributor of disability in Spain in 2016. There has seen a remarkable increase in the burden due to Alzheimer disease and other dementias. Tobacco remains the most important health issue to address in Spain.Antecedentes y objetivo: El estudio de la carga global de las enfermedades, conocido como GBD por sus siglas en inglés (global burden of disease), mide la salud poblacional en todo el mundo de forma anual y sus resultados están disponibles por país. Utilizamos las estimaciones GBD para resumir el estado de salud poblacional en España en 2016 y describir las tendencias en morbimortalidad de 1990 a 2016. Material y métodos: GBD 2016 estima la carga debida a 333 enfermedades y lesiones, y a 84 factores de riesgo. La lista de causas de GBD es jerárquica e incluye 3 categorías de nivel superior: 1) enfermedades transmisibles, maternas, neonatales y nutricionales; 2) enfermedades no transmisibles (ENT), y 3) accidentes. Se presentan la mortalidad, los años de vida ajustados por discapacidad (AVAD), los factores de riesgo y el progreso hacia los objetivos de desarrollo sostenible (ODS) a partir de los datos de GBD 2016 en España. Resultados: En 2016 en España hubo 418.516 muertes, de una población total de 46,5 millones, y el 80,5% de ellas ocurrieron en personas de 70 años o más. Las ENT fueron la principal causa de muerte (92,8%), con 388.617 (intervalo de incertidumbre del 95% 374.959–402.486), seguidas de los accidentes (3,6%), con 15.052 (13.902–17.107), y de las enfermedades transmisibles (3,5%), con 14.847 (13.208–16.482) muertes. Las 5 principales causas específicas de muerte fueron la cardiopatía isquémica (CI), con el 14,6% de todas las muertes, la enfermedad de Alzheimer y otras demencias (13,6%), el accidente cerebrovascular (7,1%), la enfermedad pulmonar obstructiva crónica (6,9%) y el cáncer de pulmón (5,0%). Se observaron incrementos notables en la mortalidad de 1990 a 2016 en otros cánceres, infecciones respiratorias del tracto inferior, enfermedad renal crónica y otras enfermedades cardiovasculares, entre otros. Por el contrario, los accidentes de tráfico bajaron del puesto 8 al 32 y la diabetes del 6 al 10. Los dolores de espalda y cervicales se convirtieron en la causa principal de AVAD en España en 2016, superando a la CI, mientras que la enfermedad de Alzheimer pasó del puesto 9 al 3. Los mayores cambios en AVAD se observaron para accidentes de tráfico, que cayeron de la posición 4 a la posición 16, y los trastornos congénitos, de la 17 a la 35; por el contrario, los trastornos orales aumentaron, pasando del puesto 25 al 17. En general, fumar es, con mucho, el factor de riesgo más relevante en España, seguido de presión arterial alta, índice de masa corporal alto, consumo de alcohol y glucemia alta en ayunas. Finalmente, España obtuvo 74,3 sobre 100 puntos en la clasificación del índice ODS en 2016, y los principales determinantes de salud nacionales relacionados con los ODS fueron el consumo de alcohol, el tabaquismo y la obesidad infantil. Se proyecta un aumento a 80,3 puntos en 2030. Conclusión: Los dolores de espalda y cervical fueron el contribuyente más importante de discapacidad en España en 2016. Hubo un aumento notable de la carga poblacional debida a la enfermedad de Alzheimer y otras demencias. El tabaco sigue siendo el riesgo para la salud más importante que debe abordarse en España