Projected sea surface temperatures over the 21st century: Changes in the mean, variability and extremes for large marine ecosystem regions of Northern Oceans

Global climate models were used to assess changes in the mean, variability and extreme sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in northern oceans with a focus on large marine ecosystems (LMEs) adjacent to North America, Europe, and the Arctic Ocean. Results were obtained from 26 models in the Community Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) archive and 30 simulations from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Large Ensemble Community Project (CESM-LENS). All of the simulations used the observed greenhouse gas concentrations for 1976–2005 and the RCP8.5 “business as usual” scenario for greenhouse gases through the remainder of the 21st century. In general, differences between models are substantially larger than among the simulations in the CESM-LENS, indicating that the SST changes are more strongly affected by model formulation than internal climate variability. The annual SST trends over 1976–2099 in the 18 LMEs examined here are all positive ranging from 0.05 to 0.5°C decade–1. SST changes by the end of the 21st century are primarily due to a positive shift in the mean with only modest changes in the variability in most LMEs, resulting in a substantial increase in warm extremes and decrease in cold extremes. The shift in the mean is so large that in many regions SSTs during 2070–2099 will always be warmer than the warmest year during 1976–2005. The SST trends are generally stronger in summer than in winter, as greenhouse gas heating is integrated over a much shallower climatological mixed layer depth in summer than in winter, which amplifies the seasonal cycle of SST over the 21st century. In the Arctic, the mean SST and its variability increases substantially during summer, when it is ice free, but not during winter when a thin layer of ice reforms and SSTs remain near the freezing point

Seasonal trends and phenology shifts in sea surface temperature on the North American northeastern continental shelf

The northeastern North American continental shelf from Cape Hatteras to the Scotian Shelf is a region of globally extreme positive trends in sea surface temperature (SST). Here, a 33-year (1982–2014) time series of daily satellite SST data was used to quantify and map spatial patterns in SST trends and phenology over this shelf. Strongest trends are over the Scotian Shelf (>0.6°C decade –1 ) and Gulf of Maine (>0.4°C decade –1 ) with weaker trends over the inner Mid-Atlantic Bight (~0.3°C decade –1 ). Winter (January–April) trends are relatively weak, and even negative in some areas; early summer (May–June) trends are positive everywhere, and later summer (July–September) trends are strongest (~1.0°C decade –1 ). These seasonal differences shift the phenology of many metrics of the SST cycle. The yearday on which specific temperature thresholds (8° and 12°C) are reached in spring trends earlier, most strongly over the Scotian Shelf and Gulf of Maine (~ –0.5 days year –1 ). Three metrics defining the warmest summer period show significant trends towards earlier summer starts, later summer ends and longer summer duration over the entire study region. Trends in start and end dates are strongest (~1 day year –1 ) over the Gulf of Maine and Scotian Shelf. Trends in increased summer duration are >2.0 days year –1 in parts of the Gulf of Maine. Regression analyses show that phenology trends have regionally varying links to the North Atlantic Oscillation, to local spring and summer atmospheric pressure and air temperature and to Gulf Stream position. For effective monitoring and management of dynamically heterogeneous shelf regions, the results highlight the need to quantify spatial and seasonal differences in SST trends as well as trends in SST phenology, each of which likely has implications for the ecological functioning of the shelf

Study of the B^0 Semileptonic Decay Spectrum at the Upsilon(4S) Resonance

We have made a first measurement of the lepton momentum spectrum in a sample of events enriched in neutral B's through a partial reconstruction of B0 --> D*- l+ nu. This spectrum, measured with 2.38 fb**-1 of data collected at the Upsilon(4S) resonance by the CLEO II detector, is compared directly to the inclusive lepton spectrum from all Upsilon(4S) events in the same data set. These two spectra are consistent with having the same shape above 1.5 GeV/c. From the two spectra and two other CLEO measurements, we obtain the B0 and B+ semileptonic branching fractions, b0 and b+, their ratio, and the production ratio f+-/f00 of B+ and B0 pairs at the Upsilon(4S). We report b+/b0=0.950 (+0.117-0.080) +- 0.091, b0 = (10.78 +- 0.60 +- 0.69)%, and b+ = (10.25 +- 0.57 +- 0.65)%. b+/b0 is equivalent to the ratio of charged to neutral B lifetimes, tau+/tau0.Comment: 14 page, postscript file also available at http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLN

The composition of the protosolar disk and the formation conditions for comets

Conditions in the protosolar nebula have left their mark in the composition of cometary volatiles, thought to be some of the most pristine material in the solar system. Cometary compositions represent the end point of processing that began in the parent molecular cloud core and continued through the collapse of that core to form the protosun and the solar nebula, and finally during the evolution of the solar nebula itself as the cometary bodies were accreting. Disentangling the effects of the various epochs on the final composition of a comet is complicated. But comets are not the only source of information about the solar nebula. Protostellar disks around young stars similar to the protosun provide a way of investigating the evolution of disks similar to the solar nebula while they are in the process of evolving to form their own solar systems. In this way we can learn about the physical and chemical conditions under which comets formed, and about the types of dynamical processing that shaped the solar system we see today. This paper summarizes some recent contributions to our understanding of both cometary volatiles and the composition, structure and evolution of protostellar disks.Comment: To appear in Space Science Reviews. The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11214-015-0167-

Seasonal phytoplankton blooms in the North Atlantic linked to the overwintering strategies of copepods

The North Atlantic Ocean contains diverse patterns of seasonal phytoplankton blooms with distinct internal dynamics. We analyzed blooms using remotely-sensed chlorophyll a concentration data and change point statistics. The first bloom of the year began during spring at low latitudes and later in summer at higher latitudes. In regions where spring blooms occurred at high frequency (i.e., proportion of years that a bloom was detected), there was a negative correlation between bloom timing and duration, indicating that early blooms last longer. In much of the Northeast Atlantic, bloom development extended over multiple seasons resulting in peak chlorophyll concentrations in summer. Spring bloom start day was found to be positively correlated with a spring phenology index and showed both positive and negative correlations to sea surface temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation in different regions. Based on the characteristics of spring and summer blooms, the North Atlantic can be classified into two regions: a seasonal bloom region, with a well-defined bloom limited to a single season; and a multi-seasonal bloom region, with blooms extending over multiple seasons. These regions differed in the correlation between bloom start and duration with only the seasonal bloom region showing a significant, negative correlation. We tested the hypothesis that the nearsurface springtime distribution of copepods that undergo diapause (Calanus finmarchicus, C. helgolandicus, C. glacialis, and C. hyperboreus) may contribute to the contrast in bloom development between the two regions. Peak near-surface spring abundance of the late stages of these Calanoid copepods was generally associated with areas having a well-defined seasonal bloom, implying a link between bloom shape and their abundance. We suggest that either grazing is a factor in shaping the seasonal bloom or bloom shape determines whether a habitat is conducive to diapause, while recognizing that both factors can re-enforce each other

The emergence of a new source of X-rays from the binary neutron star merger GW170817

The binary neutron-star (BNS) merger GW170817 is the first celestial object from which both gravitational waves (GWs) and light have been detected enabling critical insight on the pre-merger (GWs) and post-merger (light) physical properties of these phenomena. For the first $\sim 3$ years after the merger the detected radio and X-ray radiation has been dominated by emission from a structured relativistic jet initially pointing $\sim 15-25$ degrees away from our line of sight and propagating into a low-density medium. Here we report on observational evidence for the emergence of a new X-ray emission component at $\delta t>900$ days after the merger. The new component has luminosity $L_x \approx 5\times 10^{38}\rm{erg s^{-1}}$ at 1234 days, and represents a $\sim 3.5\sigma$ - $4.3\sigma$ excess compared to the expectations from the off-axis jet model that best fits the multi-wavelength afterglow of GW170817 at earlier times. A lack of detectable radio emission at 3 GHz around the same time suggests a harder broadband spectrum than the jet afterglow. These properties are consistent with synchrotron emission from a mildly relativistic shock generated by the expanding merger ejecta, i.e. a kilonova afterglow. In this context our simulations show that the X-ray excess supports the presence of a high-velocity tail in the merger ejecta, and argues against the prompt collapse of the merger remnant into a black hole. However, radiation from accretion processes on the compact-object remnant represents a viable alternative to the kilonova afterglow. Neither a kilonova afterglow nor accretion-powered emission have been observed before.Comment: 66 pages, 12 figures, Submitte

Search for direct production of charginos and neutralinos in events with three leptons and missing transverse momentum in √s = 7 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for the direct production of charginos and neutralinos in final states with three electrons or muons and missing transverse momentum is presented. The analysis is based on 4.7 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data delivered by the Large Hadron Collider and recorded with the ATLAS detector. Observations are consistent with Standard Model expectations in three signal regions that are either depleted or enriched in Z-boson decays. Upper limits at 95% confidence level are set in R-parity conserving phenomenological minimal supersymmetric models and in simplified models, significantly extending previous results

Jet size dependence of single jet suppression in lead-lead collisions at sqrt(s(NN)) = 2.76 TeV with the ATLAS detector at the LHC

Measurements of inclusive jet suppression in heavy ion collisions at the LHC provide direct sensitivity to the physics of jet quenching. In a sample of lead-lead collisions at sqrt(s) = 2.76 TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of approximately 7 inverse microbarns, ATLAS has measured jets with a calorimeter over the pseudorapidity interval |eta| < 2.1 and over the transverse momentum range 38 < pT < 210 GeV. Jets were reconstructed using the anti-kt algorithm with values for the distance parameter that determines the nominal jet radius of R = 0.2, 0.3, 0.4 and 0.5. The centrality dependence of the jet yield is characterized by the jet "central-to-peripheral ratio," Rcp. Jet production is found to be suppressed by approximately a factor of two in the 10% most central collisions relative to peripheral collisions. Rcp varies smoothly with centrality as characterized by the number of participating nucleons. The observed suppression is only weakly dependent on jet radius and transverse momentum. These results provide the first direct measurement of inclusive jet suppression in heavy ion collisions and complement previous measurements of dijet transverse energy imbalance at the LHC.Comment: 15 pages plus author list (30 pages total), 8 figures, 2 tables, submitted to Physics Letters B. All figures including auxiliary figures are available at http://atlas.web.cern.ch/Atlas/GROUPS/PHYSICS/PAPERS/HION-2011-02