Is current irrigation sustainable in the United States? An integrated assessment of climate change impact on water resources and irrigated crop yields.

While climate change impacts on crop yields has been extensively studied, estimating the impact of water shortages on irrigated crop yields is challenging because the water resources management system is complex. To investigate this issue, we integrate a crop yield reduction module and a water resources model into the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework, an integrated assessment model linking a global economic model to an Earth system model. We assess the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on water availability for irrigation in the U.S. as well as subsequent impacts on crop yields by 2050, while accounting for climate change projection uncertainty. We find that climate and socioeconomic changes will increase water shortages and strongly reduce irrigated yields for specific crops (i.e., cotton and forage), or in specific regions (i.e., the Southwest) where irrigation is not sustainable. Crop modeling studies that do not represent changes in irrigation availability can thus be misleading. Yet, since the most water-stressed basins represent a relatively small share of U.S. irrigated areas, the overall reduction in U.S. crop yields is small. The response of crop yields to climate change and water stress also suggests that some level of adaptation will be feasible, like relocating croplands to regions with sustainable irrigation or switching to less irrigation intensive crops. Finally, additional simulations show that greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation can alleviate the effect of water stress on irrigated crop yields, enough to offset the reduced CO2 fertilization effect compared to an unconstrained GHG emission scenario

Interprovincial Migration and the Stringency of Energy Policy in China

Interprovincial migration flows involve substantial relocation of people and productive activity, with implications for regional energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. In China, these flows are not explicitly considered when setting energy and environmental targets for provinces, and their potential impact on the effectiveness of policy alternatives is ignored. We analyze how migration affects outcomes under energy intensity targets and energy caps. While both policies are part of the nation’s Twelfth Five Year Plan (2011–2015) and imposed at the provincial level, only the intensity targets are binding at present. We estimate a migration model, integrate it into a general equilibrium model that resolves each province in China, and simulate the effect of migration on energy use and economic activity. We find that although both types of policies are affected by uncertain migration flows, energy intensity targets (energy use indexed to economic output) are more robust than absolute caps. They are also more cost-effective, placing less burden on the relatively clean in-migration provinces. Our findings also underscore the value of moving from provincial targets to an integrated national emissions trading system, given that the choice of abatement strategies will adjust endogenously to labor relocation.The authors thank Eni S.p.A., ICF International, Shell International Limited, and the French Development Agency (AFD), founding sponsors of the China Energy and Climate Project. We also gratefully acknowledge the support of the Energy Information Administration at the U.S. Department of Energy. We are also thankful for support provided by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China, the National Development and Reform Commission, and Rio Tinto China. We further gratefully acknowledge the financial suppo rt for this work provided by the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change through a consortium of industrial sponsors and Federal grants. This work is also supported by the DOE Integrated Assessment Grant (DE-FG02-94ER61937)

Demand-Driven Structural Change in Applied General Equilibrium Models

This chapter analyzes the variations in industrial structure induced by income-sensitive patterns of final consumption, and how these changes can be captured by a multi-sector numerical model with a flexible demand system. We focus, in particular, on the estimation of parameters for an AIDADS (An Implicitly, Directly Additive Demand System) specification. We then test the latter by inserting it in the ENVISAGE global general equilibrium dynamic model, which is run under the SSP2 scenario from 2011 to 2050. It is found that time-varying income elasticity can generate sizable variations in the industrial structure. This finding has important practical implications, particularly when structural models are applied at a medium and long term horizon

Post-Newtonian SPH calculations of binary neutron star coalescence. II. Binary mass ratio, equation of state, and spin dependence

Using our new Post-Newtonian SPH (smoothed particle hydrodynamics) code, we study the final coalescence and merging of neutron star (NS) binaries. We vary the stiffness of the equation of state (EOS) as well as the initial binary mass ratio and stellar spins. Results are compared to those of Newtonian calculations, with and without the inclusion of the gravitational radiation reaction. We find a much steeper decrease in the gravity wave peak strain and luminosity with decreasing mass ratio than would be predicted by simple point-mass formulae. For NS with softer EOS (which we model as simple $\Gamma=2$ polytropes) we find a stronger gravity wave emission, with a different morphology than for stiffer EOS (modeled as $\Gamma=3$ polytropes as in our previous work). We also calculate the coalescence of NS binaries with an irrotational initial condition, and find that the gravity wave signal is relatively suppressed compared to the synchronized case, but shows a very significant second peak of emission. Mass shedding is also greatly reduced, and occurs via a different mechanism than in the synchronized case. We discuss the implications of our results for gravity wave astronomy with laser interferometers such as LIGO, and for theoretical models of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) based on NS mergers.Comment: RevTeX, 38 pages, 24 figures, Minor Corrections, to appear in Phys. Rev.

Global Analysis of Genetic, Epigenetic and Transcriptional Polymorphisms in Arabidopsis thaliana Using Whole Genome Tiling Arrays

Whole genome tiling arrays provide a high resolution platform for profiling of genetic, epigenetic, and gene expression polymorphisms. In this study we surveyed natural genomic variation in cytosine methylation among Arabidopsis thaliana wild accessions Columbia (Col) and Vancouver (Van) by comparing hybridization intensity difference between genomic DNA digested with either methylation-sensitive (HpaII) or -insensitive (MspI) restriction enzyme. Single Feature Polymorphisms (SFPs) were assayed on a full set of 1,683,620 unique features of Arabidopsis Tiling Array 1.0F (Affymetrix), while constitutive and polymorphic CG methylation were assayed on a subset of 54,519 features, which contain a 5′CCGG3′ restriction site. 138,552 SFPs (1% FDR) were identified across enzyme treatments, which preferentially accumulated in pericentromeric regions. Our study also demonstrates that at least 8% of all analyzed CCGG sites were constitutively methylated across the two strains, while about 10% of all analyzed CCGG sites were differentially methylated between the two strains. Within euchromatin arms, both constitutive and polymorphic CG methylation accumulated in central regions of genes but under-represented toward the 5′ and 3′ ends of the coding sequences. Nevertheless, polymorphic methylation occurred much more frequently in gene ends than constitutive methylation. Inheritance of methylation polymorphisms in reciprocal F1 hybrids was predominantly additive, with F1 plants generally showing levels of methylation intermediate between the parents. By comparing gene expression profiles, using matched tissue samples, we found that magnitude of methylation polymorphism immediately upstream or downstream of the gene was inversely correlated with the degree of expression variation for that gene. In contrast, methylation polymorphism within genic region showed weak positive correlation with expression variation. Our results demonstrated extensive genetic and epigenetic polymorphisms between Arabidopsis accessions and suggested a possible relationship between natural CG methylation variation and gene expression variation

The Monarch Initiative in 2024: an analytic platform integrating phenotypes, genes and diseases across species.

Bridging the gap between genetic variations, environmental determinants, and phenotypic outcomes is critical for supporting clinical diagnosis and understanding mechanisms of diseases. It requires integrating open data at a global scale. The Monarch Initiative advances these goals by developing open ontologies, semantic data models, and knowledge graphs for translational research. The Monarch App is an integrated platform combining data about genes, phenotypes, and diseases across species. Monarch\u27s APIs enable access to carefully curated datasets and advanced analysis tools that support the understanding and diagnosis of disease for diverse applications such as variant prioritization, deep phenotyping, and patient profile-matching. We have migrated our system into a scalable, cloud-based infrastructure; simplified Monarch\u27s data ingestion and knowledge graph integration systems; enhanced data mapping and integration standards; and developed a new user interface with novel search and graph navigation features. Furthermore, we advanced Monarch\u27s analytic tools by developing a customized plugin for OpenAI\u27s ChatGPT to increase the reliability of its responses about phenotypic data, allowing us to interrogate the knowledge in the Monarch graph using state-of-the-art Large Language Models. The resources of the Monarch Initiative can be found at monarchinitiative.org and its corresponding code repository at github.com/monarch-initiative/monarch-app

Comparing genotyping algorithms for Illumina's Infinium whole-genome SNP BeadChips

The Brassica napus 60K Illumina Infinium™ SNP array has had huge international uptake in the rapeseed community due to the revolutionary speed of acquisition and ease of analysis of this high-throughput genotyping data, particularly when coupled with the newly available reference genome sequence. However, further utilization of this valuable resource can be optimized by better understanding the promises and pitfalls of SNP arrays. We outline how best to analyze Brassica SNP marker array data for diverse applications, including linkage and association mapping, genetic diversity and genomic introgression studies. We present data on which SNPs are locus-specific in winter, semi-winter and spring B. napus germplasm pools, rather than amplifying both an A-genome and a C-genome locus or multiple loci. Common issues that arise when analyzing array data will be discussed, particularly those unique to SNP markers and how to deal with these for practical applications in Brassica breeding applications

Search for dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks in √s = 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for weakly interacting massive particle dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks is presented. Final states containing third-generation quarks and miss- ing transverse momentum are considered. The analysis uses 36.1 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data recorded by the ATLAS experiment at √s = 13 TeV in 2015 and 2016. No significant excess of events above the estimated backgrounds is observed. The results are in- terpreted in the framework of simplified models of spin-0 dark-matter mediators. For colour- neutral spin-0 mediators produced in association with top quarks and decaying into a pair of dark-matter particles, mediator masses below 50 GeV are excluded assuming a dark-matter candidate mass of 1 GeV and unitary couplings. For scalar and pseudoscalar mediators produced in association with bottom quarks, the search sets limits on the production cross- section of 300 times the predicted rate for mediators with masses between 10 and 50 GeV and assuming a dark-matter mass of 1 GeV and unitary coupling. Constraints on colour- charged scalar simplified models are also presented. Assuming a dark-matter particle mass of 35 GeV, mediator particles with mass below 1.1 TeV are excluded for couplings yielding a dark-matter relic density consistent with measurements

Effects of two neuromuscular training programs on running biomechanics with load carriage: a study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background In recent years, athletes have ventured into ultra-endurance and adventure racing events, which tests their ability to race, navigate, and survive. These events often require race participants to carry some form of load, to bear equipment for navigation and survival purposes. Previous studies have reported specific alterations in biomechanics when running with load which potentially influence running performance and injury risk. We hypothesize that a biomechanically informed neuromuscular training program would optimize running mechanics during load carriage to a greater extent than a generic strength training program. Methods This will be a two group, parallel randomized controlled trial design, with single assessor blinding. Thirty healthy runners will be recruited to participate in a six weeks neuromuscular training program. Participants will be randomized into either a generic training group, or a biomechanically informed training group. Primary outcomes include self-determined running velocity with a 20 % body weight load, jump power, hopping leg stiffness, knee extensor and triceps-surae strength. Secondary outcomes include running kinetics and kinematics. Assessments will occur at baseline and post-training. Discussion To our knowledge, no training programs are available that specifically targets a runner’s ability to carry load while running. This will provide sport scientists and coaches with a foundation to base their exercise prescription on