Simple estimators of the intensity of seasonal occurrence

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Edwards's method is a widely used approach for fitting a sine curve to a time-series of monthly frequencies. From this fitted curve, estimates of the seasonal intensity of occurrence (i.e., peak-to-low ratio of the fitted curve) can be generated.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We discuss various approaches to the estimation of seasonal intensity assuming Edwards's periodic model, including maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), least squares, weighted least squares, and a new closed-form estimator based on a second-order moment statistic and non-transformed data. Through an extensive Monte Carlo simulation study, we compare the finite sample performance characteristics of the estimators discussed in this paper. Finally, all estimators and confidence interval procedures discussed are compared in a re-analysis of data on the seasonality of monocytic leukemia.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We find that Edwards's estimator is substantially biased, particularly for small numbers of events and very large or small amounts of seasonality. For the common setting of rare events and moderate seasonality, the new estimator proposed in this paper yields less finite sample bias and better mean squared error than either the MLE or weighted least squares. For large studies and strong seasonality, MLE or weighted least squares appears to be the optimal analytic method among those considered.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Edwards's estimator of the seasonal relative risk can exhibit substantial finite sample bias. The alternative estimators considered in this paper should be preferred.</p

Geography of non-melanoma skin cancer and ecological associations with environmental risk factors in England.

This is the author's peer reviewed version of the article. Please cite the published, final version which is available via the DOI link in this record.This study investigates the geography of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) in England, and ecological associations with three widespread environmental hazards: radon, arsenic and ultraviolet radiation from the sun.European Regional Development FundEuropean Social Fund Convergence Programme for Cornwall and the Isles of Scill

“Did I bring it on myself?” An exploratory study of the beliefs that adolescents referred to mental health services have about the causes of their depression

Background: The causal beliefs which adults have regarding their mental health difficulties have been linked to help-seeking behaviour, treatment preferences and the outcome of therapy; yet the topic remains a relatively unexplored one in the adolescent literature. Aims: This exploratory study aims to explore the causal beliefs regarding depression among a sample of clinically referred adolescents. Design: 77 adolescents, aged between 11 and 17, all diagnosed with moderate to severe depression, were interviewed using a semi-structured interview schedule, at the beginning of their participation in a randomised controlled trial. Data were analysed qualitatively using Framework Analysis. Findings: The study identified three themes related to causal beliefs: 1) Bewilderment about why they were depressed; 2) Depression as a result of rejection, victimisation and stress; and 3) Something inside is to blame. Conclusion: Although some adolescents struggled to identify the causes of their depression, many identified stressful life experiences as the cause of their current depression. They also tended to emphasise their own negative ways of interpreting those events, and some believed that their depression was caused by something inside them. Adolescents’ causal beliefs are likely to have implications for the way they seek help and engage in treatment, making it important to understand how adolescents understand their difficulties

The Galactic Center Black Hole Laboratory

The super-massive 4 million solar mass black hole Sagittarius~A* (SgrA*) shows flare emission from the millimeter to the X-ray domain. A detailed analysis of the infrared light curves allows us to address the accretion phenomenon in a statistical way. The analysis shows that the near-infrared flare amplitudes are dominated by a single state power law, with the low states in SgrA* limited by confusion through the unresolved stellar background. There are several dusty objects in the immediate vicinity of SgrA*. The source G2/DSO is one of them. Its nature is unclear. It may be comparable to similar stellar dusty sources in the region or may consist predominantly of gas and dust. In this case a particularly enhanced accretion activity onto SgrA* may be expected in the near future. Here the interpretation of recent data and ongoing observations are discussed.Comment: 30 pages - 7 figures - accepted for publication by Springer's "Fundamental Theories of Physics" series; summarizing GC contributions of 2 conferences: 'Equations of Motion in Relativistic Gravity' at the Physikzentrum Bad Honnef, Bad Honnef, Germany, (Feb. 17-23, 2013) and the COST MP0905 'The Galactic Center Black Hole Laboratory' Granada, Spain (Nov. 19 - 22, 2013

A Measurement of Rb using a Double Tagging Method

The fraction of Z to bbbar events in hadronic Z decays has been measured by the OPAL experiment using the data collected at LEP between 1992 and 1995. The Z to bbbar decays were tagged using displaced secondary vertices, and high momentum electrons and muons. Systematic uncertainties were reduced by measuring the b-tagging efficiency using a double tagging technique. Efficiency correlations between opposite hemispheres of an event are small, and are well understood through comparisons between real and simulated data samples. A value of Rb = 0.2178 +- 0.0011 +- 0.0013 was obtained, where the first error is statistical and the second systematic. The uncertainty on Rc, the fraction of Z to ccbar events in hadronic Z decays, is not included in the errors. The dependence on Rc is Delta(Rb)/Rb = -0.056*Delta(Rc)/Rc where Delta(Rc) is the deviation of Rc from the value 0.172 predicted by the Standard Model. The result for Rb agrees with the value of 0.2155 +- 0.0003 predicted by the Standard Model.Comment: 42 pages, LaTeX, 14 eps figures included, submitted to European Physical Journal

Measurement of the B+ and B-0 lifetimes and search for CP(T) violation using reconstructed secondary vertices

The lifetimes of the B+ and B-0 mesons, and their ratio, have been measured in the OPAL experiment using 2.4 million hadronic Z(0) decays recorded at LEP. Z(0) --> b (b) over bar decays were tagged using displaced secondary vertices and high momentum electrons and muons. The lifetimes were then measured using well-reconstructed charged and neutral secondary vertices selected in this tagged data sample. The results aretau(B+) = 1.643 +/- 0.037 +/- 0.025 pstau(Bo) = 1.523 +/- 0.057 +/- 0.053 pstau(B+)/tau(Bo) = 1.079 +/- 0.064 +/- 0.041,where in each case the first error is statistical and the second systematic.A larger data sample of 3.1 million hadronic Z(o) decays has been used to search for CP and CPT violating effects by comparison of inclusive b and (b) over bar hadron decays, No evidence fur such effects is seen. The CP violation parameter Re(epsilon(B)) is measured to be Re(epsilon(B)) = 0.001 +/- 0.014 +/- 0.003and the fractional difference between b and (b) over bar hadron lifetimes is measured to(Delta tau/tau)(b) = tau(b hadron) - tau((b) over bar hadron)/tau(average) = -0.001 +/- 0.012 +/- 0.008

A Meta-Analysis of the Relationship between Role Stress and Organizational Commitment: the Moderating Effects of Occupational Type and Culture

The demand for employees to be more productive while also being adaptable to new organizational pressures has intensified the nature of work and the demands placed upon employees. We meta-analyzed the relationship between employee role stress and organizational commitment and tested the effects of two potential moderators of this relationship. One-hundred and five studies (N = 37,993 individuals) conducted from 2001 to 2019 were included in the meta-analysis. Significant negative relationships were found between three forms of role stress (role ambiguity, role conflict, and role overload) and affective organizational commitment. All role stressors had stronger relationships with affective commitment than with continuance commitment which was not found to be significantly related to any of the types of role stress tested. Overall, employees’ perceived role stress was inversely associated with their desire to stay with the organization (affective commitment) but not their need to stay (continuance commitment) with the organization. Moderator analyses revealed that occupational type and culture significantly influenced role stressor-affective commitment relationships. Specifically, stronger relationships were found for studies conducted in transactional occupations and western cultures. Implications of findings for organizations are discussed and directions for future research are provided.Ye

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta