Analytically tractable climate-carbon cycle feedbacks under 21st century anthropogenic forcing

Changes to climate-carbon cycle feedbacks may significantly affect the Earth System’s response to greenhouse gas emissions. These feedbacks are usually analysed from numerical output of complex and arguably opaque Earth System Models (ESMs). Here, we construct a stylized global climate-carbon cycle model, test its output against complex ESMs, and investigate the strengths of its climate-carbon cycle feedbacks analytically. The analytical expressions we obtain aid understanding of carbon-cycle feedbacks and the operation of the carbon cycle. We use our results to analytically study the relative strengths of different climate-carbon cycle feedbacks and how they may change in the future, as well as to compare different feedback formalisms. Simple models such as that developed here also provide "workbenches" for simple but mechanistically based explorations of Earth system processes, such as interactions and feedbacks between the Planetary Boundaries, that are currently too uncertain to be included in complex ESMs

Synchronization and Coarsening (without SOC) in a Forest-Fire Model

We study the long-time dynamics of a forest-fire model with deterministic tree growth and instantaneous burning of entire forests by stochastic lightning strikes. Asymptotically the system organizes into a coarsening self-similar mosaic of synchronized patches within which trees regrow and burn simultaneously. We show that the average patch length grows linearly with time as t-->oo. The number density of patches of length L, N(L,t), scales as ^{-2}M(L/), and within a mean-field rate equation description we find that this scaling function decays as e^{-1/x} for x-->0, and as e^{-x} for x-->oo. In one dimension, we develop an event-driven cluster algorithm to study the asymptotic behavior of large systems. Our numerical results are consistent with mean-field predictions for patch coarsening.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures, 2-column revtex format. To be submitted to PR

Random Walks in Logarithmic and Power-Law Potentials, Nonuniversal Persistence, and Vortex Dynamics in the Two-Dimensional XY Model

The Langevin equation for a particle (`random walker') moving in d-dimensional space under an attractive central force, and driven by a Gaussian white noise, is considered for the case of a power-law force, F(r) = - Ar^{-sigma}. The `persistence probability', P_0(t), that the particle has not visited the origin up to time t, is calculated. For sigma > 1, the force is asymptotically irrelevant (with respect to the noise), and the asymptotics of P_0(t) are those of a free random walker. For sigma < 1, the noise is (dangerously) irrelevant and the asymptotics of P_0(t) can be extracted from a weak noise limit within a path-integral formalism. For the case sigma=1, corresponding to a logarithmic potential, the noise is exactly marginal. In this case, P_0(t) decays as a power-law, P_0(t) \sim t^{-theta}, with an exponent theta that depends continuously on the ratio of the strength of the potential to the strength of the noise. This case, with d=2, is relevant to the annihilation dynamics of a vortex-antivortex pair in the two-dimensional XY model. Although the noise is multiplicative in the latter case, the relevant Langevin equation can be transformed to the standard form discussed in the first part of the paper. The mean annihilation time for a pair initially separated by r is given by t(r) \sim r^2 ln(r/a) where a is a microscopic cut-off (the vortex core size). Implications for the nonequilibrium critical dynamics of the system are discussed and compared to numerical simulation results.Comment: 10 pages, 1 figur

Potential feedbacks between loss of biosphere integrity and climate change

Individual organisms on land and in the ocean sequester massive amounts of the carbon emitted into the atmosphere by humans. Yet the role of ecosystems as a whole in modulating this uptake of carbon is less clear. Here, we study several different mechanisms by which climate change and ecosystems could interact. We show that climate change could cause changes in ecosystems that reduce their capacity to take up carbon, further accelerating climate change. More research on – and better governance of – interactions between climate change and ecosystems is urgently required

Combined collider constraints on neutralinos and charginos

Searches for supersymmetric electroweakinos have entered a crucial phase, as the integrated luminosity of the Large Hadron Collider is now high enough to compensate for their weak production cross-sections. Working in a framework where the neutralinos and charginos are the only light sparticles in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model, we use GAMBIT to perform a detailed likelihood analysis of the electroweakino sector. We focus on the impacts of recent ATLAS and CMS searches with Open image in new window of 13 TeV proton-proton collision data. We also include constraints from LEP and invisible decays of the Z and Higgs bosons. Under the background-only hypothesis, we show that current LHC searches do not robustly exclude any range of neutralino or chargino masses. However, a pattern of excesses in several LHC analyses points towards a possible signal, with neutralino masses of Open image in new window = (8–155, 103–260, 130–473, 219–502) GeV and chargino masses of Open image in new window = (104–259, 224–507) GeV at the 95% confidence level. The lightest neutralino is mostly bino, with a possible modest Higgsino or wino component. We find that this excess has a combined local significance of 3.3σ, subject to a number of cautions. If one includes LHC searches for charginos and neutralinos conducted with 8 TeV proton-proton collision data, the local significance is lowered to 2.9σ. We briefly consider the implications for dark matter, finding that the correct relic density can be obtained through the Higgs-funnel and Z-funnel mechanisms, even assuming that all other sparticles are decoupled. All samples, GAMBIT input files and best-fit models from this study are available on Zenodo.Peter Athron, Csaba Balázs, Andy Buckley, Jonathan M. Cornell, Matthias Danninger ... Abhishek Sharma ... et al. (GAMBIT Collaboration

The Influence of Dormitory Architecture On Resident Behavior

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/66943/2/10.1177_001391657300500402.pd

Search for dark matter produced in association with a hadronically decaying vector boson in pp collisions at sqrt (s) = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search is presented for dark matter produced in association with a hadronically decaying W or Z boson using 3.2 fb−1 of pp collisions at View the MathML sources=13 TeV recorded by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. Events with a hadronic jet compatible with a W or Z boson and with large missing transverse momentum are analysed. The data are consistent with the Standard Model predictions and are interpreted in terms of both an effective field theory and a simplified model containing dark matter

Measurement of the cross section for isolated-photon plus jet production in pp collisions at √s=13 TeV using the ATLAS detector

The dynamics of isolated-photon production in association with a jet in proton–proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV are studied with the ATLAS detector at the LHC using a dataset with an integrated luminosity of 3.2 fb−1. Photons are required to have transverse energies above 125 GeV. Jets are identified using the anti- algorithm with radius parameter and required to have transverse momenta above 100 GeV. Measurements of isolated-photon plus jet cross sections are presented as functions of the leading-photon transverse energy, the leading-jet transverse momentum, the azimuthal angular separation between the photon and the jet, the photon–jet invariant mass and the scattering angle in the photon–jet centre-of-mass system. Tree-level plus parton-shower predictions from Sherpa and Pythia as well as next-to-leading-order QCD predictions from Jetphox and Sherpa are compared to the measurements