Using the past to constrain the future: how the palaeorecord can improve estimates of global warming

Climate sensitivity is defined as the change in global mean equilibrium temperature after a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration and provides a simple measure of global warming. An early estimate of climate sensitivity, 1.5-4.5{\deg}C, has changed little subsequently, including the latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The persistence of such large uncertainties in this simple measure casts doubt on our understanding of the mechanisms of climate change and our ability to predict the response of the climate system to future perturbations. This has motivated continued attempts to constrain the range with climate data, alone or in conjunction with models. The majority of studies use data from the instrumental period (post-1850) but recent work has made use of information about the large climate changes experienced in the geological past. In this review, we first outline approaches that estimate climate sensitivity using instrumental climate observations and then summarise attempts to use the record of climate change on geological timescales. We examine the limitations of these studies and suggest ways in which the power of the palaeoclimate record could be better used to reduce uncertainties in our predictions of climate sensitivity.Comment: The final, definitive version of this paper has been published in Progress in Physical Geography, 31(5), 2007 by SAGE Publications Ltd, All rights reserved. \c{opyright} 2007 Edwards, Crucifix and Harriso

Quantum magnetism in two dimensions: From semi-classical N\'eel order to magnetic disorder

This is a review of ground-state features of the s=1/2 Heisenberg antiferromagnet on two-dimensional lattices. A central issue is the interplay of lattice topology (e.g. coordination number, non-equivalent nearest-neighbor bonds, geometric frustration) and quantum fluctuations and their impact on possible long-range order. This article presents a unified summary of all 11 two-dimensional uniform Archimedean lattices which include e.g. the square, triangular and kagome lattice. We find that the ground state of the spin-1/2 Heisenberg antiferromagnet is likely to be semi-classically ordered in most cases. However, the interplay of geometric frustration and quantum fluctuations gives rise to a quantum paramagnetic ground state without semi-classical long-range order on two lattices which are precisely those among the 11 uniform Archimedean lattices with a highly degenerate ground state in the classical limit. The first one is the famous kagome lattice where many low-lying singlet excitations are known to arise in the spin gap. The second lattice is called star lattice and has a clear gap to all excitations. Modification of certain bonds leads to quantum phase transitions which are also discussed briefly. Furthermore, we discuss the magnetization process of the Heisenberg antiferromagnet on the 11 Archimedean lattices, focusing on anomalies like plateaus and a magnetization jump just below the saturation field. As an illustration we discuss the two-dimensional Shastry-Sutherland model which is used to describe SrCu2(BO3)2.Comment: This is now the complete 72-page preprint version of the 2004 review article. This version corrects two further typographic errors (three total with respect to the published version), see page 2 for detail

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