Epidemiology, Public Health, and the Rhetoric of False Positives

BACKGROUND: As an observational science, epidemiology is regarded by some researchers as inherently flawed and open to false results. In a recent paper, Boffetta et al. [Boffetta P, McLaughlin JK, LaVecchia C, Tarone RE, Lipworth L, Blot WJ. False-positive results in cancer epidemiology: a plea for epistemological modesty. J Natl Cancer Inst 100:988-995 (2008)] argued that "epidemiology is particularly prone to the generation of false-positive results." They also said "the tendency to emphasize and over-interpret what appear to be new findings is commonplace, perhaps in part because of a belief that the findings provide information that may ultimately improve public health" and that "this tendency to hype new findings increases the likelihood of downplaying inconsistencies within the data or any lack of concordance with other sources of evidence." The authors supported these serious charges against epidemiology and epidemiologists with few examples. Although we acknowledge that false positives do occur, we view the position of Boffetta and colleagues on false positives as unbalanced and potentially harmful to public health. OBJECTIVE: We aim to provide a more balanced evaluation of epidemiology and its contribution to public health discourse. DISCUSSION: Boffetta and colleagues ignore the fact that false negatives may arise from the very processes that they tout as generating false-positive results. We further disagree with their proposition that false-positive results from a single study will lead to faulty decision making in matters of public health importance. In practice, such public health evaluations are based on all the data available from all relevant disciplines and never to our knowledge on a single study. CONCLUSIONS: The lack of balance by Boffetta and colleagues in their evaluation of the impact of false-positive findings on epidemiology, the charge that "methodological vigilance is often absent" in epidemiologists' interpretation of their own results, and the false characterization of how epidemiologic findings are used in societal decision making all undermine a major source of information regarding disease risks. We reaffirm the importance of epidemiologic evidence as a critical component of the foundation of public health protection

A strategic assessment of cervical cancer prevention and treatment services in 3 districts of Uttar Pradesh, India

BACKGROUND: Despite being a preventable disease, cervical cancer claims the lives of almost half a million women worldwide each year. India bears one-fifth of the global burden of the disease, with approximately 130,000 new cases a year. In an effort to assess the need and potential for improving the quality of cervical cancer prevention and treatment services in Uttar Pradesh, a strategic assessment was conducted in three of the state's districts: Agra, Lucknow, and Saharanpur. METHODS: Using an adaptation of stage one of the World Health Organization's Strategic Approach to Improving Reproductive Health Policies and Programmes, an assessment of the quality of cervical cancer services was carried out by a multidisciplinary team of stakeholders. The assessment included a review of the available literature, observations of services, collection of hospital statistics and the conduct of qualitative research (in-depth interviews and focus group discussions) to assess the perspectives of women, providers, policy makers and community members. RESULTS: There were gaps in provider knowledge and practices, potentially attributable to limited provider training and professional development opportunities. In the absence of a state policy on cervical cancer, screening of asymptomatic women was practically absent, except in the military sector. Cytology-based cancer screening tests (i.e. pap smears) were often used to help diagnose women with symptoms of reproductive tract infections but not routinely screen asymptomatic women. Access to appropriate treatment of precancerous lesions was limited and often inappropriately managed by hysterectomy in many urban centers. Cancer treatment facilities were well equipped but mostly inaccessible for women in need. Finally, policy makers, community members and clients were mostly unaware about cervical cancer and its preventable nature, although with information, expressed a strong interest in having services available to women in their communities. CONCLUSION: To address gaps in services and unmet needs, state policies and integrated interventions have the potential to improve the quality of services for prevention of cervical cancer in Uttar Pradesh

Exposure to aflatoxin and fumonisin in children at risk for growth impairment in rural Tanzania

Growth impairment is a major public health issue for children in Tanzania. The question remains as to whether dietary mycotoxins play a role in compromising children's growth. We examined children's exposures to dietary aflatoxin and fumonisin and potential impacts on growth in 114 children under 36 months of age in Haydom, Tanzania. Plasma samples collected from the children at 24 months of age (N = 60) were analyzed for aflatoxin B₁-lysine (AFB₁-lys) adducts, and urine samples collected between 24 and 36 months of age (N = 94) were analyzed for urinary fumonisin B₁ (UFB₁). Anthropometric, socioeconomic, and nutritional parameters were measured and growth parameter z-scores were calculated for each child. Seventy-two percent of the children had detectable levels of AFB₁-lys, with a mean level of 5.1 (95% CI: 3.5, 6.6) pg/mg albumin; and 80% had detectable levels of UFB₁, with a mean of 1.3 (95% CI: 0.8, 1.8) ng/ml. This cohort had a 75% stunting rate [height-for-age z-scores (HAZ) < −2] for children at 36 months. No associations were found between aflatoxin exposures and growth impairment as measured by stunting, underweight [weight-for-age z-scores (WAZ) < −2], or wasting [weight-for-height z-scores (WHZ) < −2]. However, fumonisin exposure was negatively associated with underweight (with non-detectable samples included, p = 0.0285; non-detectable samples excluded, p = 0.005) in this cohort of children. Relatively low aflatoxin exposure at 24 months was not linked with growth impairment, while fumonisin exposure at 24–36 months based on the UFB₁ biomarkers may contribute to the high growth impairment rate among children of Haydom, Tanzania; which may be associated with their breast feeding and weaning practices

EFSA BIOHAZ Panel (EFSA Panel on Biologicial Hazards), 2013. Scientific Opinion on the public health hazards to be covered by inspection of meat (solipeds)

A risk ranking process identified Trichinella spp. as the most relevant biological hazard in the context of meat inspection of domestic solipeds. Without a full and reliable soliped traceability system, it is considered that either testing all slaughtered solipeds for Trichinella spp., or inactivation meat treatments (heat or irradiation) should be used to maintain the current level of safety. With regard to general aspects of current meat inspection practices, the use of manual techniques during current post-mortem soliped meat inspection may increase microbial cross-contamination, and is considered to have a detrimental effect on the microbiological status of soliped carcass meat. Therefore, the use of visual-only inspection is suggested for “non-suspect” solipeds. For chemical hazards, phenylbutazone and cadmium were ranked as being of high potential concern. Monitoring programmes for chemical hazards should be more flexible and based on the risk of occurrence, taking into account Food Chain Information (FCI), covering the specific on-farm environmental conditions and individual animal treatments, and the ranking of chemical substances, which should be regularly updated and include new hazards. Sampling, testing and intervention protocols for chemical hazards should be better integrated and should focus particularly on cadmium, phenylbutazone and priority “essential substances” approved for treatment of equine animals. Implementation and enforcement of a more robust and reliable identification system throughout the European Union is needed to improve traceability of domestic solipeds. Meat inspection is recognised as a valuable tool for surveillance and monitoring of animal health and welfare conditions. If visual only post-mortem inspection is implemented for routine slaughter, a reduction in the detection of strangles and mild cases of rhodococcosis would occur. However, this was considered unlikely to affect the overall surveillance of both diseases. Improvement of FCI and traceability were considered as not having a negative effect on animal health and welfare surveillance