The Ertebølle zooarchaeological dataset from southern Scandinavia

Interdisciplinary archaeological research in southern Scandinavia has a very long history of practice, starting in the mid-19th Century and continuing to the present. In particular, research concerning the late Mesolithic hunter-gatherer-fisher Ertebølle culture (5400-3950 cal BC) has resulted in a large zooarchaeological dataset potentially useable in large-scale comparative, or meta-analyses. In this paper, we review this dataset, and the quantity and character of the data is described. We then address particularities of the published data that may affect comparative analyses. By focusing on fragmentation and bone condition as major influencing factors on published quantitative statistics, we demonstrate that caution is warranted in comparisons between these types of data deriving from Ertebølle assemblages. Nevertheless, we focus on the dataset as a valuable resource for understanding variability in hunter-gatherer-fisher food economies and how to best mitigate potential issues in selection and use of the data in comparative studies. We do so by discussing types of comparative analyses that are most likely to provide valuable information about the human past. Lastly, we propose a series of recommendations that should inform and ensure the comparability of future Ertebølle research, and present our review as a case study in zooarchaeological meta-analyse

The impact of farming on prehistoric culinary practices throughout Northern Europe

To investigate changes in culinary practices associated with the arrival of farming, we analysed the organic residues of over 1,000 pottery vessels from hunter-gatherer-fisher and early agricultural sites across Northern Europe from the Lower Rhine Basin to the Northeastern Baltic. Here, pottery was widely used by hunter-gatherer-fishers prior to the introduction of domesticated animals and plants. Overall, there was surprising continuity in the way that hunter-gatherer-fishers and farmers used pottery. Both aquatic products and wild plants remained prevalent, a pattern repeated consistently across the study area. We argue that the rapid adaptation of farming communities to exploit coastal and lagoonal resources facilitated their northerly expansion, and in some cases, hunting, gathering, and fishing became the most dominant subsistence strategy. Nevertheless, dairy products frequently appear in pottery associated with the earliest farming groups often mixed with wild plants and fish. Interestingly, we also find compelling evidence of dairy products in hunter-gatherer-fisher Ertebølle pottery, which predates the arrival of domesticated animals. We propose that Ertebølle hunter-gatherer-fishers frequently acquired dairy products through exchange with adjacent farming communities prior to the transition. The continuity observed in pottery use across the transition to farming contrasts with the analysis of human remains which shows substantial demographic change through ancient DNA and, in some cases, a reduction in marine consumption through stable isotope analysis. We postulate that farmers acquired the knowledge and skills they needed to succeed from local hunter-gatherer-fishers but without substantial admixture

The application of micro-Raman for the analysis of ochre artefacts from Mesolithic palaeo-lake Flixton

Ochre is an important mineral pigment used by prehistoric hunter-gatherers across the globe, and its use in the Mesolithic is no exception. Using optical microscopy and Raman spectroscopy with micrometre spatial resolution (micro-Raman), we present evidence that confirms unambiguously the use of ochre by hunter-gatherers at Mesolithic sites surrounding Palaeo-Lake Flixton, Vale of Pickering, North Yorkshire, UK. Our results suggest that people collected ochre and processed it in different ways, likely for diverse purposes. The quality and specificity of chemical characterisation possible with micro-Raman facilitates new avenues for further research on ochreous materials in Britain, including provenancing through chemical ‘fingerprinting’

High-resolution dietary reconstruction of victims of the 79 CE Vesuvius eruption at Herculaneum by compound-specific isotope analysis.

The remains of those who perished at Herculaneum in 79 CE offer a unique opportunity to examine lifeways across an ancient community who lived and died together. Historical sources often allude to differential access to foodstuffs across Roman society but provide no direct or quantitative information. By determining the stable isotope values of amino acids from bone collagen and deploying Bayesian models that incorporate knowledge of protein synthesis, we were able to reconstruct the diets of 17 adults from Herculaneum with unprecedented resolution. Significant differences in the proportions of marine and terrestrial foods consumed were observed between males and females, implying that access to food was differentiated according to gender. The approach also provided dietary data of sufficient precision for comparison with assessments of food supply to modern populations, opening up the possibility of benchmarking ancient diets against contemporary settings where the consequences for health are better understood

Scales of analysis : evidence of fish and fish processing at Star Carr

This contribution directly relates to the paper published by Wheeler in 1978 entitled ‘Why were there no fish re- mains at Star Carr?’. Star Carr is arguably the richest, most studied and re-interpreted Mesolithic site in Europe but the lack of fish remains has continued to vex scholars. Judging from other materials, the preservation conditions at the site in the late 1940s/early 1950s should have been good enough to permit the survival of fish remains, and particularly dentaries of the northern pike (Esox lucius L., 1758) as found on other European sites of this age. The lack of evidence has therefore been attributed to a paucity of fish in the lake. However, new research has provided multiple lines of evidence, which not only demonstrate the presence of fish, but also provide evidence for the species present, data on how and where fish were being processed on site, and interpretations for the fishing methods that might have been used. This study demonstrates that an integrated approach using a range of methods at landscape, site and microscopic scales of analysis can elucidate such questions. In addition, it demonstrates that in future studies, even in cases where physical remains are lacking, forensic techniques hold significant potential

Living risk prediction algorithm (QCOVID) for risk of hospital admission and mortality from coronavirus 19 in adults: national derivation and validation cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To derive and validate a risk prediction algorithm to estimate hospital admission and mortality outcomes from coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) in adults. DESIGN: Population based cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: QResearch database, comprising 1205 general practices in England with linkage to covid-19 test results, Hospital Episode Statistics, and death registry data. 6.08 million adults aged 19-100 years were included in the derivation dataset and 2.17 million in the validation dataset. The derivation and first validation cohort period was 24 January 2020 to 30 April 2020. The second temporal validation cohort covered the period 1 May 2020 to 30 June 2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was time to death from covid-19, defined as death due to confirmed or suspected covid-19 as per the death certification or death occurring in a person with confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in the period 24 January to 30 April 2020. The secondary outcome was time to hospital admission with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Models were fitted in the derivation cohort to derive risk equations using a range of predictor variables. Performance, including measures of discrimination and calibration, was evaluated in each validation time period. RESULTS: 4384 deaths from covid-19 occurred in the derivation cohort during follow-up and 1722 in the first validation cohort period and 621 in the second validation cohort period. The final risk algorithms included age, ethnicity, deprivation, body mass index, and a range of comorbidities. The algorithm had good calibration in the first validation cohort. For deaths from covid-19 in men, it explained 73.1% (95% confidence interval 71.9% to 74.3%) of the variation in time to death (R2); the D statistic was 3.37 (95% confidence interval 3.27 to 3.47), and Harrell's C was 0.928 (0.919 to 0.938). Similar results were obtained for women, for both outcomes, and in both time periods. In the top 5% of patients with the highest predicted risks of death, the sensitivity for identifying deaths within 97 days was 75.7%. People in the top 20% of predicted risk of death accounted for 94% of all deaths from covid-19. CONCLUSION: The QCOVID population based risk algorithm performed well, showing very high levels of discrimination for deaths and hospital admissions due to covid-19. The absolute risks presented, however, will change over time in line with the prevailing SARS-C0V-2 infection rate and the extent of social distancing measures in place, so they should be interpreted with caution. The model can be recalibrated for different time periods, however, and has the potential to be dynamically updated as the pandemic evolves

Ethnicity and the first diagnosis of a wide range of cardiovascular diseases: Associations in a linked electronic health record cohort of 1 million patients

Background: While the association of ethnic group with individual cardiovascular diseases has been studied, little is known about ethnic differences in the initial lifetime presentation of clinical cardiovascular disease in contemporary populations. Methods and results: We studied 1,068,318 people, aged ≥30 years and free from diagnosed CVD at baseline (90.9% White, 3.6% South Asian and 2.9% Black), using English linked electronic health records covering primary care, hospital admissions, acute coronary syndrome registry and mortality registry (CALIBER research platform). During 5.7 years median follow-up between 1997-2010, 95,224 people experienced an incident cardiovascular diagnosis. 80.2% (77.7% -82.5%) of initial presentation in South Asian <60 yrs were coronary heart disease presentations compared to 66.2% (65.7-66.7) in White and 56.7% (52.1%-61.2%) in Black patients. Compared to White patients, Black patients had significantly lower age-sex adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for initial lifetime presentation of all the coronary disease diagnoses (stable angina HR 0.80 (95% CI 0.68-0.93); unstable angina – 0.75 (0.59-0.97); myocardial infarction 0.49 (0.40-0.62)) while South Asian patients had significantly higher HRs (stable angina – 1.67 (1.52-1.84); unstable angina 1.82 (1.56-2.13); myocardial infarction – 1.67 (1.49-1.87). We found no ethnic differences in initial presentation with heart failure (Black 0.97 (0.79-1.20); S Asian 1.04(0.87-1.26)). Compared to White patients, Black patients were more likely to present with ischaemic stroke (1.24 (0.97-1.58)) and intracerebral haemorrhage (1.44 (0.97-2.12)). Presentation with peripheral arterial disease was less likely for Black (0.63 (0.50-0.80)) and South Asian patients (0.70 (0.57-0.86)) compared with White patients. Discussion: While we found the anticipated substantial predominance of coronary heart disease presentations in South Asian and predominance of stroke presentations in Black patients, we found no ethnic differences in presentation with heart failure. We consider the public health and research implications of our findings

The impact of environmental change on the use of early pottery by East Asian hunter-gatherers

The invention of pottery was a fundamental technological advancement with far-reaching economic and cultural consequences. Pottery containers first emerged in East Asia during the Late Pleistocene in a wide range of environmental settings, but became particularly prominent and much more widely dispersed after climatic warming at the start of the Holocene. Some archaeologists argue that this increasing usage was driven by environmental factors, as warmer climates would have generated a wider range of terrestrial plant and animal resources that required processing in pottery. However, this hypothesis has never been directly tested. Here, in one of the largest studies of its kind, we conducted organic residue analysis of >800 pottery vessels selected from 46 Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene sites located across the Japanese archipelago to identify their contents. Our results demonstrate that pottery had a strong association with the processing of aquatic resources, irrespective of the ecological setting. Contrary to expectations, this association remained stable even after the onset of Holocene warming, including in more southerly areas, where expanding forests provided new opportunities for hunting and gathering. Nevertheless, the results indicate that a broader array of aquatic resources was processed in pottery after the start of the Holocene. We suggest this marks a significant change in the role of pottery of hunter-gatherers, corresponding to an increased volume of production, greater variation in forms and sizes, the rise of intensified fishing, the onset of shellfish exploitation, and reduced residential mobility

Properties of the Binary Neutron Star Merger GW170817

On August 17, 2017, the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo gravitational-wave detectors observed a low-mass compact binary inspiral. The initial sky localization of the source of the gravitational-wave signal, GW170817, allowed electromagnetic observatories to identify NGC 4993 as the host galaxy. In this work, we improve initial estimates of the binary's properties, including component masses, spins, and tidal parameters, using the known source location, improved modeling, and recalibrated Virgo data. We extend the range of gravitational-wave frequencies considered down to 23 Hz, compared to 30 Hz in the initial analysis. We also compare results inferred using several signal models, which are more accurate and incorporate additional physical effects as compared to the initial analysis. We improve the localization of the gravitational-wave source to a 90% credible region of 16  deg2. We find tighter constraints on the masses, spins, and tidal parameters, and continue to find no evidence for nonzero component spins. The component masses are inferred to lie between 1.00 and 1.89  M⊙ when allowing for large component spins, and to lie between 1.16 and 1.60  M⊙ (with a total mass 2.73−0.01+0.04  M⊙) when the spins are restricted to be within the range observed in Galactic binary neutron stars. Using a precessing model and allowing for large component spins, we constrain the dimensionless spins of the components to be less than 0.50 for the primary and 0.61 for the secondary. Under minimal assumptions about the nature of the compact objects, our constraints for the tidal deformability parameter Λ are (0,630) when we allow for large component spins, and 300−230+420 (using a 90% highest posterior density interval) when restricting the magnitude of the component spins, ruling out several equation-of-state models at the 90% credible level. Finally, with LIGO and GEO600 data, we use a Bayesian analysis to place upper limits on the amplitude and spectral energy density of a possible postmerger signal