Forecasting U.S. Home Foreclosures with an Index of Internet Keyword Searches

Finding data to feed into financial and risk management models can be challenging. Many analysts attribute a lack of data or quality information as a contributing factor to the worldwide financial crises that seems to have begun in the U.S. subprime mortgage market. In this paper, a new source of data, key word search statistics recently available from Google, are applied in a experiment to develop a short-term forecasting model for the number of foreclosures in the U.S. housing market. The keyword search data significantly improves forecast of foreclosures, suggesting that this data can be useful for financial risk management. More generally, the new data source shows promise for a variety of financial and market analyses

Social seed networks and climate change adaptation in East Africa

Our study investigates the routes of information flow through which smallholder exchange seed and information. We then examine how these exchanges among farmer networks can be improved. In order to examine the characteristics of these networks, our study analyzed household-level survey data collected by Bioversity International from sites in Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania. Current seed sources and climate adaptation strategies were determined by creating summary statistics from the survey data. UCINET network analyses were conducted to acquire a more specific understanding of the current social networks among farmers. Seed networks were categorized by country, gender, and crop and then analyzed to determine where the distribution of seed and information can be improved and utilized

Monkeypox Viruses: Resurgence of Global Threat to Mankind

The unprecedented outbreaks of monkeypox viruses in non-endemic regions have created grave concern for global health. The World Health Organization has declared a public health emergency of international concern and stated the seriousness of monkeypox viruses. The gravity of this zoonotic disease cannot be underestimated, owing to the fact that this viral infection can cause pathetic situations if ignored. Keeping these lacunas, the scientific communities have expressed their interest towards the study of monkeypox viruses. Hence the present review discusses the etiological features, historical events, and vaccination along with management strategies to combat and counter the sudden outbreak. The review also highlights the current Indian scenario of the monkeypox virus; with scanty reports available, the present contributes towards the growing scientific knowledge to prevent a future threats to mankind

Small-scale magnetic buoyancy and magnetic pumping effects in a turbulent convection

We determine the nonlinear drift velocities of the mean magnetic field and nonlinear turbulent magnetic diffusion in a turbulent convection. We show that the nonlinear drift velocities are caused by the three kinds of the inhomogeneities, i.e., inhomogeneous turbulence; the nonuniform fluid density and the nonuniform turbulent heat flux. The inhomogeneous turbulence results in the well-known turbulent diamagnetic and paramagnetic velocities. The nonlinear drift velocities of the mean magnetic field cause the small-scale magnetic buoyancy and magnetic pumping effects in the turbulent convection. These phenomena are different from the large-scale magnetic buoyancy and magnetic pumping effects which are due to the effect of the mean magnetic field on the large-scale density stratified fluid flow. The small-scale magnetic buoyancy and magnetic pumping can be stronger than these large-scale effects when the mean magnetic field is smaller than the equipartition field. We discuss the small-scale magnetic buoyancy and magnetic pumping effects in the context of the solar and stellar turbulent convection. We demonstrate also that the nonlinear turbulent magnetic diffusion in the turbulent convection is anisotropic even for a weak mean magnetic field. In particular, it is enhanced in the radial direction. The magnetic fluctuations due to the small-scale dynamo increase the turbulent magnetic diffusion of the toroidal component of the mean magnetic field, while they do not affect the turbulent magnetic diffusion of the poloidal field.Comment: 13 pages, 4 figure, REVTEX4, Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics, in pres

Search for direct production of charginos and neutralinos in events with three leptons and missing transverse momentum in √s = 7 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for the direct production of charginos and neutralinos in final states with three electrons or muons and missing transverse momentum is presented. The analysis is based on 4.7 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data delivered by the Large Hadron Collider and recorded with the ATLAS detector. Observations are consistent with Standard Model expectations in three signal regions that are either depleted or enriched in Z-boson decays. Upper limits at 95% confidence level are set in R-parity conserving phenomenological minimal supersymmetric models and in simplified models, significantly extending previous results

Jet size dependence of single jet suppression in lead-lead collisions at sqrt(s(NN)) = 2.76 TeV with the ATLAS detector at the LHC

Measurements of inclusive jet suppression in heavy ion collisions at the LHC provide direct sensitivity to the physics of jet quenching. In a sample of lead-lead collisions at sqrt(s) = 2.76 TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of approximately 7 inverse microbarns, ATLAS has measured jets with a calorimeter over the pseudorapidity interval |eta| < 2.1 and over the transverse momentum range 38 < pT < 210 GeV. Jets were reconstructed using the anti-kt algorithm with values for the distance parameter that determines the nominal jet radius of R = 0.2, 0.3, 0.4 and 0.5. The centrality dependence of the jet yield is characterized by the jet "central-to-peripheral ratio," Rcp. Jet production is found to be suppressed by approximately a factor of two in the 10% most central collisions relative to peripheral collisions. Rcp varies smoothly with centrality as characterized by the number of participating nucleons. The observed suppression is only weakly dependent on jet radius and transverse momentum. These results provide the first direct measurement of inclusive jet suppression in heavy ion collisions and complement previous measurements of dijet transverse energy imbalance at the LHC.Comment: 15 pages plus author list (30 pages total), 8 figures, 2 tables, submitted to Physics Letters B. All figures including auxiliary figures are available at http://atlas.web.cern.ch/Atlas/GROUPS/PHYSICS/PAPERS/HION-2011-02

Measurement of the polarisation of W bosons produced with large transverse momentum in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV with the ATLAS experiment

This paper describes an analysis of the angular distribution of W->enu and W->munu decays, using data from pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector at the LHC in 2010, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of about 35 pb^-1. Using the decay lepton transverse momentum and the missing transverse energy, the W decay angular distribution projected onto the transverse plane is obtained and analysed in terms of helicity fractions f0, fL and fR over two ranges of W transverse momentum (ptw): 35 < ptw < 50 GeV and ptw > 50 GeV. Good agreement is found with theoretical predictions. For ptw > 50 GeV, the values of f0 and fL-fR, averaged over charge and lepton flavour, are measured to be : f0 = 0.127 +/- 0.030 +/- 0.108 and fL-fR = 0.252 +/- 0.017 +/- 0.030, where the first uncertainties are statistical, and the second include all systematic effects.Comment: 19 pages plus author list (34 pages total), 9 figures, 11 tables, revised author list, matches European Journal of Physics C versio

Observation of a new chi_b state in radiative transitions to Upsilon(1S) and Upsilon(2S) at ATLAS

The chi_b(nP) quarkonium states are produced in proton-proton collisions at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV and recorded by the ATLAS detector. Using a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.4 fb^-1, these states are reconstructed through their radiative decays to Upsilon(1S,2S) with Upsilon->mu+mu-. In addition to the mass peaks corresponding to the decay modes chi_b(1P,2P)->Upsilon(1S)gamma, a new structure centered at a mass of 10.530+/-0.005 (stat.)+/-0.009 (syst.) GeV is also observed, in both the Upsilon(1S)gamma and Upsilon(2S)gamma decay modes. This is interpreted as the chi_b(3P) system.Comment: 5 pages plus author list (18 pages total), 2 figures, 1 table, corrected author list, matches final version in Physical Review Letter

Search for displaced vertices arising from decays of new heavy particles in 7 TeV pp collisions at ATLAS

We present the results of a search for new, heavy particles that decay at a significant distance from their production point into a final state containing charged hadrons in association with a high-momentum muon. The search is conducted in a pp-collision data sample with a center-of-mass energy of 7 TeV and an integrated luminosity of 33 pb^-1 collected in 2010 by the ATLAS detector operating at the Large Hadron Collider. Production of such particles is expected in various scenarios of physics beyond the standard model. We observe no signal and place limits on the production cross-section of supersymmetric particles in an R-parity-violating scenario as a function of the neutralino lifetime. Limits are presented for different squark and neutralino masses, enabling extension of the limits to a variety of other models.Comment: 8 pages plus author list (20 pages total), 8 figures, 1 table, final version to appear in Physics Letters