Letter to the Editor - Resumption of pulmonary function testing (Spirometry) at Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, during the COVID-19 pandemic

No abstrac

Barriers and enablers to improving integrated primary healthcare for non-communicable diseases and mental health conditions in Ethiopia:a mixed methods study

BACKGROUND: The Ethiopian Primary Healthcare Clinical Guidelines (EPHCG) seek to improve quality of primary health care, while also expanding access to care for people with Non-Communicable Diseases and Mental Health Conditions (NCDs/MHCs). The aim of this study was to identify barriers and enablers to implementation of the EPHCG with a particular focus on NCDs/MHCs.METHODS: A mixed-methods convergent-parallel design was employed after EPHCG implementation in 18 health facilities in southern Ethiopia. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 10 primary healthcare clinicians and one healthcare administrator. Organisational Readiness for Implementing Change (ORIC) questionnaire was self-completed by 124 health workers and analysed using Kruskal Wallis ranked test to investigate median score differences. Qualitative data were mapped to the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Science (CFIR) and the Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF). Expert Recommendations for Implementing Change (ERIC) were employed to select implementation strategies to address barriers.RESULTS: Four domains were identified: EPHCG training and implementation, awareness and meeting patient needs (demand side), resource constraints/barriers (supply side) and care pathway bottlenecks. The innovative facility-based training to implement EPHCG had a mixed response, especially in busy facilities where teams reported struggling to find protected time to meet. Key barriers to implementation of EPHCG were non-availability of resources (CFIR inner setting), such as laboratory reagents and medications that undermined efforts to follow guideline-based care, the way care was structured and lack of familiarity with providing care for people with NCDs-MHCs. Substantial barriers arose because of socio-economic problems that were interlinked with health but not addressable within the health system (CFIR outer setting). Other factors influencing effective implementation of EPHCG (TDF) included low population awareness about NCDs/MHCs and unaffordable diagnostic and treatment services (TDF). Implementation strategies were identified. ORIC findings indicated high scores of organisational readiness to implement the desired change with likely social desirability bias.CONCLUSION: Although perceived as necessary, practical implementation of EPHCG was constrained by challenges across domains of internal/external determinants. This was especially marked in relation to expansion of care responsibilities to include NCDs/MHCs. Attention to social determinants of health outcomes, community engagement and awareness-raising are needed to maximize population impact.</p

Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017

A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation

Inflammatory mediators profile in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 : A comparative study

Abnormal inflammatory mediator concentrations during SARS-CoV-2 infection may represent disease severity. We aimed to assess plasma inflammatory mediator concentrations in patients with SARS-CoV-2 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. In this study, 260 adults: 126 hospitalized patients with confirmed COVID-19 sorted into severity groups: severe (n=68) and mild or moderate (n=58), and 134 healthy controls were enrolled. We quantified 39 plasma inflammatory mediators using multiplex ELISA. Spearman rank correlation and Mann-Whitney U test were used to identify mechanistically coupled inflammatory mediators and compare disease severity. Compared to healthy controls, patients with COVID-19 had significantly higher levels of interleukins 1α, 2, 6, 7, 8, 10 and 15, C-reactive protein (CRP), serum amyloid A (SAA), intercellular adhesion molecule 1 (ICAM-1), vascular cell adhesion protein 1 (VCAM-1), IFN-γ-inducible protein-10 (IP-10, CXCL10), macrophage inflammatory protein-1 alpha (MIP-1α, CCL3), eotaxin-3 (CCL26), interferon-gamma (IFN-γ), tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), basic fibroblast growth factor (bFGF), placental growth factor (PlGF), and fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 (Flt-1). Patients with severe COVID-19 had higher IL-10 and lower macrophage-derived chemokine (MDC, CCL22) compared to the mild or moderate group (P&lt;0.05). In the receiver operating characteristic curve, SAA, IL-6 and CRP showed strong sensitivity and specificity in predicting the severity and prognosis of COVID-19. Greater age and higher CRP had a significant association with disease severity (P&lt;0.05). Our findings reveal that CRP, SAA, VCAM-1, CXCL10, CCL22 and IL-10 levels are promising biomarkers for COVID-19 disease severity, suggesting that plasma inflammatory mediators could be used as warning indicators of COVID-19 severity, aid in COVID-19 prognosis and treatment

Limited value of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and serum creatinine as point-of-care biomarkers of disease severity and infection mortality in patients hospitalized with COVID-19

INTRODUCTION: In hospitalized COVID-19, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and serum creatinine is sometimes measured under assumption they predict disease severity and mortality. We determined the potential value of NLR and serum creatinine as predictors of disease severity and mortality in COVID-19. METHODS: Prospective cohort study of COVID-19 patients admitted to premier COVID-19 treatment hospitals in Ethiopia. Predictive capability of biomarkers in progression and prognosis of COVID-19 was analyzed using receiver operating characteristics. Survival of COVID-19 patients with different biomarker levels was computed. Logistic regression assessed associations between disease severity and mortality on NLR and serum creatinine adjusted for odds ratio (AOR). RESULTS: The study enrolled 126 adults with severe (n = 68) or mild/moderate (n = 58) COVID-19, with median age 50 [interquartile range (IQR 20-86)]; 57.1% males. The NLR value was significantly higher in severe cases [6.68 (IQR 3.03-12.21)] compared to the mild/moderate [3.23 (IQR 2.09-5.39)], with the NLR value markedly associated with disease severity (p&lt;0.001). Mortality was higher in severe cases [13 (19.1%)] compared to mild/moderate cases [2 (3.4%)] (p = 0.007). The NLR value was significantly higher in non-survivors [15.17 (IQR 5.13-22.5)] compared to survivors [4.26 (IQR 2.40-7.90)] (p = 0.002). Serum creatinine was significantly elevated in severe cases [34 (50%)] compared with mild/moderate [11 (19%)] (p&lt;0.001). Disease severity [AOR 6.58, 95%CI (1.29-33.56), p = 0.023] and NLR [AOR 1.07, 95%CI (1.02-1.12), p = 0.004)] might be associated with death. NLR had a sensitivity and specificity of 69.1% and 60.3% as predictor of disease severity (cut-off &gt;4.08), and 86.7% and 55.9% as prognostic marker of mortality (cut-off &gt;4.63). CONCLUSION: In COVID-19, NLR is a biomarker with only modest accuracy for predicting disease severity and mortality. Still, patients with NLR &gt;4.63 are more likely to die. Monitoring of this biomarker at the earliest stage of the disease may predict outcome. Additionally, high creatinine seems related to disease severity and mortality

The complications of treating chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in low income countries of sub-Saharan Africa

INTRODUCTION: In most low and middle-income countries, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is on the rise. Areas covered: Unfortunately, COPD is a neglected disease in these countries. Taking sub-Saharan Africa as an example, in rural areas, COPD is even unknown regarding public awareness and public health planning. Programs for the management of COPD are poorly developed, and the quality of care is often of a low standard. Inhaled medication is often not available or not affordable. Tobacco smoking is the most common encountered risk factor for COPD. However, in sub-Saharan Africa, household air pollution is another major risk factor for the development of COPD. Communities are also exposed to a variety of other risk factors, such as low birth weight, malnutrition, severe childhood respiratory infections, occupational exposures, outdoor pollution, human-immunodeficiency virus and tuberculosis. All these factors contribute to the high burden of poor respiratory health in sub-Saharan Africa. Expert commentary: A silent growing epidemic of COPD seems to be unravelling. Therefore, prevention and intervention programs must involve all the stakeholders and start as early as possible. More research is needed to describe, define and inform treatment approaches, and natural history of biomass-related COPD

Co-morbidity among COVID-19 patients admitted to the hospital.

CVD, Cardiovascular disease, COPD, Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, DM, Diabetes Mellitus, HTN, Hypertension.</p

Laboratory biomarker-related variables by COVID severity classification (n = 126).

Laboratory biomarker-related variables by COVID severity classification (n = 126).</p

S1 Data -

(SAV)</p