Shock and patient preimplantation type D personality are associated with poor health status in patients with implantable cardioverter-defibrillator

Background: Implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) shock is a critical event to patients associated with well-being after implantation, although other factors may play an equally important role. We compared the association of shock and the patient's preimplantation personality with health status, using a prospective study design. Methods and Results: Consecutively implanted ICD patients (n=383; 79% men) completed the Type D Scale at baseline and the Short-Form Health Survey 36 (SF-36) at baseline and 3, 6, and 12 months. Of all patients, 23.5% had a Type D personality and 13.8% received a shock during follow-up. Shocked patients reported significantly poorer health status, as did Type D patients. Health status patterns were poorest in patients with combined Type D personality and shock during follow-up. Shock during follow-up was a significant independent associate of poorer health status for 4 of 8 subscales of the SF-36 and the Mental Component Summary (all P<.05), with shocked patients scoring between 2.60 to 13.30 points lower than nonshocked patients. Type D personality was an independent associate of poor postimplantation health status for 6 of 8 of the SF-36 subscales and the Mental Component Summary, with Type D patients scoring between 2.12 to 8.02 points lower, adjusting for demographic and clinical characteristics. Conclusions: ICD shock and the patient's preimplantation personality disposition were equally important associates of health status 12 months after implantation. Identification of the patient's personality profile before ICD implantation may help identify subsets of patients who may need additional care, for example, with a psychosocial component

Age-Related Differences in the Effect of Psychological Distress on Mortality: Type D Personality in Younger versus Older Patients with Cardiac Arrhythmias

Background. Mixed findings in biobehavioral research on heart disease may partly be attributed to age-related differences in the prognostic value of psychological distress. This study sought to test the hypothesis that Type D (distressed) personality contributes to an increased mortality risk following implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) treatment in younger patients but not in older patients. Methods. The Type D Scale (DS14) was used to assess general psychological distress in 455 younger (≤70 y, m = 59.1) and 134 older (>70 y, m = 74.3) ICD patients. End points were all-cause mortality and cardiac death after a median follow-up of 3.2 years. Results. Older patients had more advanced heart failure and a higher mortality rate (n = 34/25%) than younger patients (n = 60/13%), P = 0.001. Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT), but not Type D personality, was associated with increased mortality in older patients. Among younger patients, however, Type D personality was associated with an adjusted hazard ratio = 1.91 (95% CI 1.09–3.34) and 2.26 (95% CI 1.16–4.41) for all-cause and cardiac mortality; other predictors were increasing age, CRT, appropriate shocks, ACE-inhibitors, and smoking. Conclusion. Type D personality was independently associated with all-cause and cardiac mortality in younger ICD patients but not in older patients. Cardiovascular research needs to further explore age-related differences in psychosocial risk

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2\ub75th percentile and 100 as the 97\ub75th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59\ub74 (IQR 35\ub74–67\ub73), ranging from a low of 11\ub76 (95% uncertainty interval 9\ub76–14\ub70) to a high of 84\ub79 (83\ub71–86\ub77). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of 'leaving no one behind', it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. METHODS: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

© 2018 The Author(s). Background: Assessments of age-specifc mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Afairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specifc mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in diferent components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation: This analysis of age-sex-specifc mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The fndings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which refects signifcant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing

Maximin D-optimal designs for binary longitudinal responses

Optimal design problems for logistic mixed effects models for binary longitudinal responses are considered. A function of the approximate information matrix under the framework of the Penalized Quasi Likelihood (PQL) and a generalized linear mixed model with autocorrelation is optimized. Locally D-optimal designs are computed. Maximin D-optimal designs are considered to overcome the problem of parameter value dependency of the D-optimal designs. The results show that the optimal number of repeated measurements depends on the number of regression parameters in the model. The performance of the maximin D-optimal designs in terms of the maximin efficiency (MME) is high for a range of parameter values that is common in practice. The design locations for mixed-effects logistic models generally shift to the left as compared to the design locations for general linear mixed-effects models known in the literature.

Experimental Investigation on the Advantages of Dry Machining over Wet Machining during Turning of AISI 1020 Steel

In this study, the experiment was conducted to investigate the advantage of dry machining over wet machining during turning of AISI 1020 steel using cemented carbide tool on a CNC lathe machine. Surface roughness and cutting temperature were measured by VOGEL surface roughness tester and infrared thermometer respectively. The experiments were conducted based on Taguchi L9 orthogonal array design. Surface roughness, cutting temperature, tool life, and machining cost were analyzed graphically. The average surface roughness and cutting temperature achieved with wet machining was 2.01 µm and 26.540C, which was 17.41% and 44.86% respectively, lower than dry machining. The high cutting temperature in dry turning result in short tool life, which was 41.15% shorter than wet turning. The machining cost of wet turning was about 56% greater than the cost of dry turning. The cost of coolant in wet turning is 42.88% greater than that of the cutting tools. The highest cost was shared by tool cost, which was 81.33% of the total cost for dry turning, while 70.00% of the total cost was shared by coolant cost for wet turning. Results revealed that dry turning is more economical than wet turning

Direct nose to brain delivery of small molecules: critical analysis of data from a standardized in vivo screening model in rats

The blood–brain barrier (BBB) is often a limiting factor for getting drugs in the brain. Bypassing the BBB by intranasal (IN), or also called nose to brain (NTB), route is an interesting and frequently investigated concept for brain drug delivery. However, despite the body of evidence for IN drug delivery in literature over the last decades, reproducibility and interpretation of animal data remain challenging. The objective of this project was to assess the feasibility and value of a standardized IN screening model in rats for the evaluation of direct brain delivery. A chemically diverse set of commercial and internal small molecules were tested in the in vivo model with different doses and/or formulations. Data were analyzed using different ways of ratio calculations: blood concentration at time of sacrifice, total exposure in blood (area under the curve, AUC) and the brain or olfactory bulb concentrations. The IN route was compared to another parenteral route to decide if there is potential direct brain transport. The results show that blood and tissue concentrations and ratios are highly variable and not always reproducible. Potential direct brain delivery was concluded for some compounds, however, sometimes depending on the analysis: using blood levels at sacrifice or AUC could lead to different conclusions. We conclude that a screening model for the evaluation of direct brain transport of small molecules is very difficult to achieve and a conclusion based on a limited number of animals with this variability is questionable

Measuring chronic care management experience of patients with diabetes: PACIC and PACIC+ validation

Background: The patient assessment of chronic illness care (PACIC) is a promising instrument to evaluate the chronic care experiences of patients, yet additional validation is needed to improve its usefulness.Methods: A total of 1941 patients with diabetes completed the questionnaire. Reliability coefficients and factor analyses were used to psychometrically test the PACIC and PACIC+ (i.e., PACIC extended with six additional multidisciplinary team functioning items to improve content validity). Intra-Class Correlations were computed to identify the extent to which variation in scores can be attributed to GP practices. Results: The PACIC and PACIC+ showed a good psychometric quality (Cronbach's alpha's > 0.9). Explorative factor analyses showed inconclusive results. Confirmative factor analysis showed that none of the factor structures had an acceptable fit (RMSEA > 0.10). In addition, 5.1 to 5.4 percent of the total variation was identified at the GP practice level. Conclusion: The PACIC and PACIC+ are reliable instruments to measure the chronic care management experiences of patients. The PACIC+ is preferred because it also includes multidisciplinary coordination and cooperation - one of the central pillars of chronic care management - with good psychometric quality. Previously identified subscales should be used with caution. Both PACIC instruments are useful in identifying GP practice variation