Toward a chemical reanalysis in a coupled chemistry-climate model: an evaluation of MOPITT CO assimilation and its impact on tropospheric composition

We examine in detail a 1 year global reanalysis of carbon monoxide (CO) that is based on joint assimilation of conventional meteorological observations and Measurement of Pollution in The Troposphere (MOPITT) multispectral CO retrievals in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Our focus is to assess the impact to the chemical system when CO distribution is constrained in a coupled full chemistry-climate model like CESM. To do this, we first evaluate the joint reanalysis (MOPITT Reanalysis) against four sets of independent observations and compare its performance against a reanalysis with no MOPITT assimilation (Control Run). We then investigate the CO burden and chemical response with the aid of tagged sectoral CO tracers. We estimate the total tropospheric CO burden in 2002 (from ensemble mean and spread) to be 371 ± 12% Tg for MOPITT Reanalysis and 291 ± 9% Tg for Control Run. Our multispecies analysis of this difference suggests that (a) direct emissions of CO and hydrocarbons are too low in the inventory used in this study and (b) chemical oxidation, transport, and deposition processes are not accurately and consistently represented in the model. Increases in CO led to net reduction of OH and subsequent longer lifetime of CH4 (Control Run: 8.7 years versus MOPITT Reanalysis: 9.3 years). Yet at the same time, this increase led to 5-10% enhancement of Northern Hemisphere O3 and overall photochemical activity via HOx recycling. Such nonlinear effects further complicate the attribution to uncertainties in direct emissions alone. This has implications to chemistry-climate modeling and inversion studies of longer-lived species

Instructional Models for Course-Based Research Experience (CRE) Teaching

The course-based research experience (CRE) with its documented educational benefits is increasingly being implemented in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics education. This article reports on a study that was done over a period of 3 years to explicate the instructional processes involved in teaching an undergraduate CRE. One hundred and two instructors from the established and large multi-institutional SEA-PHAGES program were surveyed for their understanding of the aims and practices of CRE teaching. This was followed by large-scale feedback sessions with the cohort of instructors at the annual SEA Faculty Meeting and subsequently with a small focus group of expert CRE instructors. Using a qualitative content analysis approach, the survey data were analyzed for the aims of inquiry instruction and pedagogical practices used to achieve these goals. The results characterize CRE inquiry teaching as involving three instructional models: 1) being a scientist and generating data; 2) teaching procedural knowledge; and 3) fostering project ownership. Each of these models is explicated and visualized in terms of the specific pedagogical practices and their relationships. The models present a complex picture of the ways in which CRE instruction is conducted on a daily basis and can inform instructors and institutions new to CRE teaching

Complementary and alternative medicine use among women at increased genetic risk of breast and ovarian cancer

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) use is well documented among breast cancer patients and survivors, but little evidence is available to describe rates and patterns of use among women at increased genetic risk of breast cancer.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A pre-visit telephone interview was conducted to ascertain CAM use among the <it>BRCA </it>mutation carriers enrolled in a high-risk breast cancer screening study. Participants were asked to report on their use of thirteen therapies within the year prior to enrollment into the study. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between various factors and CAM use in this population.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Among the 164 <it>BRCA1 </it>or <it>BRCA2 </it>mutation-positive (<it>BRCA</it>+) women in this analysis, 78% reported CAM use, with prayer and lifestyle diet being the two most commonly reported modalities. Many subjects used multiple CAM therapies, with 34% reporting use of three or more modalities. The most commonly used modalities were mind-body therapies and biologically-based practices, 61.6% and 51.8%, respectively. High-risk women were more likely to use CAM if they were older, more educated, more worried about ovarian cancer risk, or had a previous cancer diagnosis.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study suggests that the prevalence of CAM use is high among <it>BRCA </it>mutation carriers, with frequency of use comparable to that of breast cancer patients and survivors. Given the high prevalence of CAM use in our subjects, especially biologically-based therapies including herbal supplements, whose safety and efficacy in relation to cancer risk are unknown, our study suggests that future research is necessary to clarify these risks, and that it is important for providers to inquire about and to discuss the pros and cons of CAM use with their <it>BRCA+ </it>patients.</p

Toward a chemical reanalysis in a coupled chemistry‐climate model: An evaluation of MOPITT CO assimilation and its impact on tropospheric composition

We examine in detail a 1 year global reanalysis of carbon monoxide (CO) that is based on joint assimilation of conventional meteorological observations and Measurement of Pollution in The Troposphere (MOPITT) multispectral CO retrievals in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Our focus is to assess the impact to the chemical system when CO distribution is constrained in a coupled full chemistry-climate model like CESM. To do this, we first evaluate the joint reanalysis (MOPITT Reanalysis) against four sets of independent observations and compare its performance against a reanalysis with no MOPITT assimilation (Control Run). We then investigate the CO burden and chemical response with the aid of tagged sectoral CO tracers. We estimate the total tropospheric CO burden in 2002 (from ensemble mean and spread) to be 371 ± 12% Tg for MOPITT Reanalysis and 291 ± 9% Tg for Control Run. Our multispecies analysis of this difference suggests that (a) direct emissions of CO and hydrocarbons are too low in the inventory used in this study and (b) chemical oxidation, transport, and deposition processes are not accurately and consistently represented in the model. Increases in CO led to net reduction of OH and subsequent longer lifetime of CH4 (Control Run: 8.7 years versus MOPITT Reanalysis: 9.3 years). Yet at the same time, this increase led to 5-10% enhancement of Northern Hemisphere O3 and overall photochemical activity via HOx recycling. Such nonlinear effects further complicate the attribution to uncertainties in direct emissions alone. This has implications to chemistry-climate modeling and inversion studies of longer-lived species

LSST: from Science Drivers to Reference Design and Anticipated Data Products

(Abridged) We describe here the most ambitious survey currently planned in the optical, the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST). A vast array of science will be enabled by a single wide-deep-fast sky survey, and LSST will have unique survey capability in the faint time domain. The LSST design is driven by four main science themes: probing dark energy and dark matter, taking an inventory of the Solar System, exploring the transient optical sky, and mapping the Milky Way. LSST will be a wide-field ground-based system sited at Cerro Pach\'{o}n in northern Chile. The telescope will have an 8.4 m (6.5 m effective) primary mirror, a 9.6 deg$^2$ field of view, and a 3.2 Gigapixel camera. The standard observing sequence will consist of pairs of 15-second exposures in a given field, with two such visits in each pointing in a given night. With these repeats, the LSST system is capable of imaging about 10,000 square degrees of sky in a single filter in three nights. The typical 5$\sigma$ point-source depth in a single visit in $r$ will be $\sim 24.5$ (AB). The project is in the construction phase and will begin regular survey operations by 2022. The survey area will be contained within 30,000 deg$^2$ with $\delta<+34.5^\circ$, and will be imaged multiple times in six bands, $ugrizy$, covering the wavelength range 320--1050 nm. About 90\% of the observing time will be devoted to a deep-wide-fast survey mode which will uniformly observe a 18,000 deg$^2$ region about 800 times (summed over all six bands) during the anticipated 10 years of operations, and yield a coadded map to $r\sim27.5$. The remaining 10\% of the observing time will be allocated to projects such as a Very Deep and Fast time domain survey. The goal is to make LSST data products, including a relational database of about 32 trillion observations of 40 billion objects, available to the public and scientists around the world.Comment: 57 pages, 32 color figures, version with high-resolution figures available from https://www.lsst.org/overvie

Addressing Cancer Disparities via Community Network Mobilization and Intersectoral Partnerships: A Social Network Analysis

Community mobilization and collaboration among diverse partners are vital components of the effort to reduce and eliminate cancer disparities in the United States. We studied the development and impact of intersectoral connections among the members of the Massachusetts Community Network for Cancer Education, Research, and Training (MassCONECT). As one of the Community Network Program sites funded by the National Cancer Institute, this infrastructure-building initiative utilized principles of Community-based Participatory Research (CBPR) to unite community coalitions, researchers, policymakers, and other important stakeholders to address cancer disparities in three Massachusetts communities: Boston, Lawrence, and Worcester. We conducted a cross-sectional, sociometric network analysis four years after the network was formed. A total of 38 of 55 members participated in the study (69% response rate). Over four years of collaboration, the number of intersectoral connections reported by members (intersectoral out-degree) increased, as did the extent to which such connections were reported reciprocally (intersectoral reciprocity). We assessed relationships between these markers of intersectoral collaboration and three intermediate outcomes in the effort to reduce and eliminate cancer disparities: delivery of community activities, policy engagement, and grants/publications. We found a positive and statistically significant relationship between intersectoral out-degree and community activities and policy engagement (the relationship was borderline significant for grants/publications). We found a positive and statistically significant relationship between intersectoral reciprocity and community activities and grants/publications (the relationship was borderline significant for policy engagement). The study suggests that intersectoral connections may be important drivers of diverse intermediate outcomes in the effort to reduce and eliminate cancer disparities. The findings support investment in infrastructure-building and intersectoral mobilization in addressing disparities and highlight the benefits of using CBPR approaches for such work

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Instructional Models for Course-Based Research Experience (CRE) Teaching

The course-based research experience (CRE) with its documented educational benefits is increasingly being implemented in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics education. This article reports on a study that was done over a period of 3 years to explicate the instructional processes involved in teaching an undergraduate CRE. One hundred and two instructors from the established and large multi-institutional SEA-PHAGES program were surveyed for their understanding of the aims and practices of CRE teaching. This was followed by large-scale feedback sessions with the cohort of instructors at the annual SEA Faculty Meeting and subsequently with a small focus group of expert CRE instructors. Using a qualitative content analysis approach, the survey data were analyzed for the aims of inquiry instruction and pedagogical practices used to achieve these goals. The results characterize CRE inquiry teaching as involving three instructional models: 1) being a scientist and generating data; 2) teaching procedural knowledge; and 3) fostering project ownership. Each of these models is explicated and visualized in terms of the specific pedagogical practices and their relationships. The models present a complex picture of the ways in which CRE instruction is conducted on a daily basis and can inform instructors and institutions new to CRE teaching

Isolation of bacteriophages against Streptococcus species; Lysogeny of Ten Mycobacteriophages for host Mycobacterium tuberculosis H37Ra

Abstract Bacteriophages are viruses that infect bacteria, often resulting in lysis of the bacterial host. Due to the specific nature of bacteriophages, they play an essential role in maintaining the microbial balance of ecosystems. Truckee Meadows Community College has been isolating bacteriophage from soil and water samples in conjunction with a national undergraduate research program since 2014. The focus of Truckee Meadows Community College research has primarily been on mycobacteriophages; specifically, those that infect Mycobacterium smegmatis mc2155. Two projects are presented in this thesis. The first is the methods to capture and isolate Streptococcus bacteriophages using human saliva tested against Streptococcus mutans lab strains, and other wild-type bacteria obtained from the human oral cavity. The second is lysogeny of mycobacteriophages originally obtained from Mycobacterium smegmatis mc2155 as a host that displayed successful cross-infection with Mycobacteria tuberculosis H37Ra in previous assays. Using the previous research, the bacteriophages capable of cross-infectivity were tested for their ability to form a lysogen – to integrate viral DNA within the genome without killing or lysing the bacterium; thus, resulting in bacteriophage readiness to take over the host cell in the current bacterium, as well as future generations of the bacterium. Bacteriophages demonstrate high specificity to their host. Receptors for bacteriophage to bind to the host bacterium appear to be in the cell wall of Gram-negative and Gram-positive bacteria, through the capsule and slime layer, and through appendages like flagella. Though phage-specific receptors have not been identified. The tail fibers of the bacteriophage appear to be significant in finding those receptors, but the specific genes responsible also have not been identified. Developing a process for successful isolation of bacteriophage is crucial to the process of understanding specificity through characterization of the bacterial host and the bacteriophage isolated. In the Streptococcus bacteriophage study, eight lab strains of Streptococcus mutans and 11 wild-type bacteria were cultured from the human oral cavity, cultured were used as bacterial hosts. The Neisseria strains were removed from this research. Saliva was tested against the host to test for the presence of novel bacteriophage. Initial methods were derived from previously published methods for Streptococcus mutans bacteriophage isolation. Bacteriophage isolation was not successful using these initial methods, so several modifications were tested. Modifications included an increase of infection time, incubation time, limiting potential bacteriophage tail damage from centrifugation – reduced centrifugation times or elimination of centrifugation, using saliva without filtration, and using saliva without filtration and not allowing the sample to settle. While no bacteriophage was successfully isolated for characterization, these procedural changes did result in potential temperate phages; this indicates a potential for temperate bacteriophage isolation in future studies. In the mycobacteriophage study, previous research identified ten mycobacteriophages with the potential for cross-infectivity between the original host, Mycobacterium smegmatis mc2155, and the potential host, Mycobacterium tuberculosis H37Ra. This research confirmed that six mycobacteriophages were successful in cross-infection: Scooby Blue, Erimy, Guilian 2, Guilsminger, Old House, and Zose. Five were lysogenic, and one was lytic. The lytic bacteriophage, Zose, was not used for this study. Two of the remaining five mycobacteriophages showed an efficiency of plating (EOP) of 10-3 or better: Scooby Blue and Old House when compared to the original host. An EOP of 10-3 or better indicated productive infection of these bacteriophages, which makes these two bacteriophage potential candidates for characterization of the genomes for further understanding of cross-infectivity and lysogeny. Future work should include further adjustments to protocols for more successful isolation of Streptococcus bacteriophages. The adjustments should include longer enrichment times and sampling from other environmental sources, including soil. Future studies using the lysogenic mycobacteriophages analyzed here should include DNA sequencing of the mycobacteriophages for comparison of each genome against lytic and lysogenic bacteriophages that cross-infect original host, Mycobacterium smegmatis mc2155, and the potential host, Mycobacterium tuberculosis H37Ra, allowing for identification of lysogeny genes. The same bacteriophage genomes can be used for comparison with other mycobacteriophage genomes that do not cross-infect to specify genomic differences specific to cross-infection