Global Pyrogeography: the Current and Future Distribution of Wildfire

Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution of wildfire, a complex abiotic process that responds to a variety of spatial and environmental gradients. How future climate change may alter global wildfire activity, however, is still largely unknown. As a first step to quantifying potential change in global wildfire, we present a multivariate quantification of environmental drivers for the observed, current distribution of vegetation fires using statistical models of the relationship between fire activity and resources to burn, climate conditions, human influence, and lightning flash rates at a coarse spatiotemporal resolution (100 km, over one decade). We then demonstrate how these statistical models can be used to project future changes in global fire patterns, highlighting regional hotspots of change in fire probabilities under future climate conditions as simulated by a global climate model. Based on current conditions, our results illustrate how the availability of resources to burn and climate conditions conducive to combustion jointly determine why some parts of the world are fire-prone and others are fire-free. In contrast to any expectation that global warming should necessarily result in more fire, we find that regional increases in fire probabilities may be counter-balanced by decreases at other locations, due to the interplay of temperature and precipitation variables. Despite this net balance, our models predict substantial invasion and retreat of fire across large portions of the globe. These changes could have important effects on terrestrial ecosystems since alteration in fire activity may occur quite rapidly, generating ever more complex environmental challenges for species dispersing and adjusting to new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the potential for widespread impacts of climate change on wildfire, suggesting severely altered fire regimes and the need for more explicit inclusion of fire in research on global vegetation-climate change dynamics and conservation planning

Clinical Use and Therapeutic Potential of IVIG/SCIG, Plasma-Derived IgA or IgM, and Other Alternative Immunoglobulin Preparations

Intravenous and subcutaneous immunoglobulin preparations, consisting of IgG class antibodies, are increasingly used to treat a broad range of pathological conditions, including humoral immune deficiencies, as well as acute and chronic inflammatory or autoimmune disorders. A plethora of Fab- or Fc-mediated immune regulatory mechanisms has been described that might act separately or in concert, depending on pathogenesis or stage of clinical condition. Attempts have been undertaken to improve the efficacy of polyclonal IgG preparations, including the identification of relevant subfractions, mild chemical modification of molecules, or modification of carbohydrate side chains. Furthermore, plasma-derived IgA or IgM preparations may exhibit characteristics that might be exploited therapeutically. The need for improved treatment strategies without increase in plasma demand is a goal and might be achieved by more optimal use of plasma-derived proteins, including the IgA and the IgM fractions. This article provides an overview on the current knowledge and future strategies to improve the efficacy of regular IgG preparations and discusses the potential of human plasma-derived IgA, IgM, and preparations composed of mixtures of IgG, IgA, and IgM

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta

A Tactic Driven Refinement Tool

This paper describes a refinement tool we are developing, with special emphasis on the use of tactics. The operation of the tool is illustrated by stepping through the derivation of a selection sort algorithm. Several aspects of the tool and its implementation are then discussed in more detail, stressing the way in which the tool assists the user in deriving programs using the refinement calculus