A Combining Forecasting Modeling and Its Application

Part 5: Modelling and SimulationInternational audienceThe supply chain coordination has abstracted more and more attention from industries and academics. This paper studies a Bayesian combination forecasting model to integrate multiple forecasting resources and coordinate forecasting process among partners in retail supply chain. The simulation results based on the retail sales data show the effectiveness of this Bayesian combination forecasting model to coordinate the collaborative forecasting process. This Bayesian combination forecasting model can improve demand forecasting accuracy of supply chain

О противодействии недружественным слияниям и поглощениям в сельском хозяйстве

Целью данной работы является определение путей повышения эффективности противодействия рейдерству в аграрной сфере Украины

Electrode Polarization Effects in Broadband Dielectric Spectroscopy

In the present work, we provide broadband dielectric spectra showing strong electrode polarization effects for various materials, belonging to very different material classes. This includes both ionic and electronic conductors as, e.g., salt solutions, ionic liquids, human blood, and colossal-dielectric-constant materials. These data are intended to provide a broad data base enabling a critical test of the validity of phenomenological and microscopic models for electrode polarization. In the present work, the results are analyzed using a simple phenomenological equivalent-circuit description, involving a distributed parallel RC circuit element for the modeling of the weakly conducting regions close to the electrodes. Excellent fits of the experimental data are achieved in this way, demonstrating the universal applicability of this approach. In the investigated ionically conducting materials, we find the universal appearance of a second dispersion region due to electrode polarization, which is only revealed if measuring down to sufficiently low frequencies. This indicates the presence of a second charge-transport process in ionic conductors with blocking electrodes.Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures, experimental data are provided in electronic form (see "Data Conservancy"

The vulnerabilities of computerized physician order entry systems: a qualitative study

Objective To test the vulnerabilities of a wide range of computerized physician order entry (CPOE) systems to different types of medication errors, and develop a more comprehensive qualitative understanding of how their design could be improved. Materials and Methods The authors reviewed a random sample of 63 040 medication error reports from the US Pharmacopeia (USP) MEDMARX reporting system where CPOE systems were considered a “contributing factor” to errors and flagged test scenarios that could be tested in current CPOE systems. Testers entered these orders in 13 commercial and homegrown CPOE systems across 16 different sites in the United States and Canada, using both usual practice and where-needed workarounds. Overarching themes relevant to interface design and usability/workflow issues were identified. Results CPOE systems often failed to detect and prevent important medication errors. Generation of electronic alert warnings varied widely between systems, and depended on a number of factors, including how the order information was entered. Alerts were often confusing, with unrelated warnings appearing on the same screen as those more relevant to the current erroneous entry. Dangerous drug-drug interaction warnings were displayed only after the order was placed rather than at the time of ordering. Testers illustrated various workarounds that allowed them to enter these erroneous orders. Discussion and Conclusion The authors found high variability in ordering approaches between different CPOE systems, with major deficiencies identified in some systems. It is important that developers reflect on these findings and build in safeguards to ensure safer prescribing for patients

Search for direct production of charginos and neutralinos in events with three leptons and missing transverse momentum in √s = 7 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for the direct production of charginos and neutralinos in final states with three electrons or muons and missing transverse momentum is presented. The analysis is based on 4.7 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data delivered by the Large Hadron Collider and recorded with the ATLAS detector. Observations are consistent with Standard Model expectations in three signal regions that are either depleted or enriched in Z-boson decays. Upper limits at 95% confidence level are set in R-parity conserving phenomenological minimal supersymmetric models and in simplified models, significantly extending previous results

Measurement of D*+/- meson production in jets from pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper reports a measurement of D*+/- meson production in jets from proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of sqrt(s) = 7 TeV at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. The measurement is based on a data sample recorded with the ATLAS detector with an integrated luminosity of 0.30 pb^-1 for jets with transverse momentum between 25 and 70 GeV in the pseudorapidity range |eta| < 2.5. D*+/- mesons found in jets are fully reconstructed in the decay chain: D*+ -> D0pi+, D0 -> K-pi+, and its charge conjugate. The production rate is found to be N(D*+/-)/N(jet) = 0.025 +/- 0.001(stat.) +/- 0.004(syst.) for D*+/- mesons that carry a fraction z of the jet momentum in the range 0.3 < z < 1. Monte Carlo predictions fail to describe the data at small values of z, and this is most marked at low jet transverse momentum.Comment: 10 pages plus author list (22 pages total), 5 figures, 1 table, matches published version in Physical Review

A Systematic Review Of The Types And Causes Of Prescribing Errors Generated From Using Computerized Provider Order Entry Systems in Primary and Secondary Care

Objective To understand the different types and causes of prescribing errors associated with computerized provider order entry (CPOE) systems, and recommend improvements in these systems. Materials and Methods We conducted a systematic review of the literature published between January 2004 and June 2015 using three large databases: the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Embase, and Medline. Studies that reported qualitative data about the types and causes of these errors were included. A narrative synthesis of all eligible studies was undertaken. Results A total of 1185 publications were identified, of which 34 were included in the review. We identified 8 key themes associated with CPOE-related prescribing errors: computer screen display, drop-down menus and auto-population, wording, default settings, nonintuitive or inflexible ordering, repeat prescriptions and automated processes, users’ work processes, and clinical decision support systems. Displaying an incomplete list of a patient’s medications on the computer screen often contributed to prescribing errors. Lack of system flexibility resulted in users employing error-prone workarounds, such as the addition of contradictory free-text comments. Users’ misinterpretations of how text was presented in CPOE systems were also linked with the occurrence of prescribing errors. Discussion and Conclusions Human factors design is important to reduce error rates. Drop-down menus should be designed with safeguards to decrease the likelihood of selection errors. Development of more sophisticated clinical decision support, which can perform checks on free-text, may also prevent errors. Further research is needed to ensure that systems minimize error likelihood and meet users’ workflow expectations

A literature review of the training offered to qualified prescribers to use electronic prescribing systems: why is it so important?

Objectives A key element of the implementation and ongoing use of an electronic prescribing (ePrescribing) system is ensuring that users are, and remain, sufficiently trained to use the system. Studies have suggested that insufficient training is associated with suboptimal use. However, it is not clear from these studies how clinicians are trained to use ePrescribing systems or the effectiveness of different approaches. We sought to describe the various approaches used to train qualified prescribers on ePrescribing systems and to identify whether users were educated about the pitfalls and challenges of using these systems. Methods We performed a literature review, using a systematic approach across three large databases: Cumulative Index Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Embase and Medline were searched for relevant English language articles. Articles that explored the training of qualified prescribers on ePrescribing systems in a hospital setting were included. Key findings Our search of ‘all training’ approaches returned 1155 publications, of which seven were included. A separate search of ‘online’ training found three relevant publications. Training methods in the ‘all training’ category included clinical scenarios, demonstrations and assessments. Regarding ‘online’ training approaches; a team at the University of Victoria in Canada developed a portal containing simulated versions of electronic health records, where individuals could prescribe for fictitious patients. Educating prescribers about the challenges and pitfalls of electronic systems was rarely discussed. Conclusions A number of methods are used to train prescribers; however, the lack of papers retrieved suggests a need for additional studies to inform training methods

Search for supersymmetry in final states with jets, missing transverse momentum and one isolated lepton in sqrt{s} = 7 TeV pp collisions using 1 fb-1 of ATLAS data

We present an update of a search for supersymmetry in final states containing jets, missing transverse momentum, and one isolated electron or muon, using 1.04 fb^-1 of proton-proton collision data at sqrt{s} = 7 TeV recorded by the ATLAS experiment at the LHC in the first half of 2011. The analysis is carried out in four distinct signal regions with either three or four jets and variations on the (missing) transverse momentum cuts, resulting in optimized limits for various supersymmetry models. No excess above the standard model background expectation is observed. Limits are set on the visible cross-section of new physics within the kinematic requirements of the search. The results are interpreted as limits on the parameters of the minimal supergravity framework, limits on cross-sections of simplified models with specific squark and gluino decay modes, and limits on parameters of a model with bilinear R-parity violation.Comment: 18 pages plus author list (30 pages total), 9 figures, 4 tables, final version to appear in Physical Review

Reducing heterotic M-theory to five dimensional supergravity on a manifold with boundary

This paper constructs the reduction of heterotic $M$-theory in eleven dimensions to a supergravity model on a manifold with boundary in five dimensions using a Calabi-Yau three-fold. New results are presented for the boundary terms in the action and for the boundary conditions on the bulk fields. Some general features of dualisation on a manifold with boundary are used to explain the origin of some topological terms in the action. The effect of gaugino condensation on the fermion boundary conditions leads to a `twist' in the chirality of the gravitino which can provide an uplifting mechanism in the vacuum energy to cancel the cosmological constant after moduli stabilisation.Comment: 16 pages, RevTe