USDA Forecasts Of Crop Ending Stocks: How Well Have They Performed?

This study analyzes forecasts of U.S. ending stocks for corn, soybeans, and wheat issued by the USDA. The proposed efficiency tests focus on forecast revisions. Forecast errors are decomposed into monthly unforecastable shocks and idiosyncratic residuals. The error covariance matrix allows for heteroscedasticity and auto-correlations. Results suggest that the USDA forecasts are inefficient, providing strong evidence that the USDA is conservative in forecasting the ending stocks. Unforecastable shocks are heteroscedastic, and idiosyncratic residuals are small. Results are consistent across the three decades analyzed, but soybean forecasts are found to be considerably worse from 2005 to 2015

Enhancing Approximations for Regular Reachability Analysis

This paper introduces two mechanisms for computing over-approximations of sets of reachable states, with the aim of ensuring termination of state-space exploration. The first mechanism consists in over-approximating the automata representing reachable sets by merging some of their states with respect to simple syntactic criteria, or a combination of such criteria. The second approximation mechanism consists in manipulating an auxiliary automaton when applying a transducer representing the transition relation to an automaton encoding the initial states. In addition, for the second mechanism we propose a new approach to refine the approximations depending on a property of interest. The proposals are evaluated on examples of mutual exclusion protocols

Dynamics of Excited Electrons in Copper and Ferromagnetic Transition Metals: Theory and Experiment

Both theoretical and experimental results for the dynamics of photoexcited electrons at surfaces of Cu and the ferromagnetic transition metals Fe, Co, and Ni are presented. A model for the dynamics of excited electrons is developed, which is based on the Boltzmann equation and includes effects of photoexcitation, electron-electron scattering, secondary electrons (cascade and Auger electrons), and transport of excited carriers out of the detection region. From this we determine the time-resolved two-photon photoemission (TR-2PPE). Thus a direct comparison of calculated relaxation times with experimental results by means of TR-2PPE becomes possible. The comparison indicates that the magnitudes of the spin-averaged relaxation time \tau and of the ratio \tau_\uparrow/\tau_\downarrow of majority and minority relaxation times for the different ferromagnetic transition metals result not only from density-of-states effects, but also from different Coulomb matrix elements M. Taking M_Fe > M_Cu > M_Ni = M_Co we get reasonable agreement with experiments.Comment: 23 pages, 11 figures, added a figure and an appendix, updated reference

Genomic and transcriptional analysis of protein heterogeneity of the honeybee venom allergen Api m 6

Several components of honeybee venom are known to cause allergenic responses in humans and other vertebrates. One such component, the minor allergen Api m 6, has been known to show amino acid variation but the genetic mechanism for this variation is unknown. Here we show that Api m 6 is derived from a single locus, and that substantial protein-level variation has a simple genome-level cause, without the need to invoke multiple loci or alternatively spliced exons. Api m 6 sits near a misassembled section of the honeybee genome sequence, and we propose that a substantial number of indels at and near Api m 6 might be the root cause of this misassembly. We suggest that genes such as Api m 6 with coding-region or untranslated region indels might have had a strong effect on the assembly of this draft of the honeybee genome

A statistical interpretation of the correlation between intermediate mass fragment multiplicity and transverse energy

Multifragment emission following Xe+Au collisions at 30, 40, 50 and 60 AMeV has been studied with multidetector systems covering nearly 4-pi in solid angle. The correlations of both the intermediate mass fragment and light charged particle multiplicities with the transverse energy are explored. A comparison is made with results from a similar system, Xe+Bi at 28 AMeV. The experimental trends are compared to statistical model predictions.Comment: 7 pages, submitted to Phys. Rev.

Certified Computer Algebra on top of an Interactive Theorem Prover

Contains fulltext : 35027.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access

The semileptonic B->pi decay in a Constituent Quark-Meson model

We evaluate the form factors describing the exclusive decay B-> pi l nu by using a Constituent Quark-Meson model based on an effective quark-meson Lagrangian (CQM). The model allows for an expansion in the pion momenta and we consider terms up to the first order in the pion field derivatives. We compute the leading terms in the soft pion limit and consider corrections to this limit.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, LaTeX (uses aps, epsf, revtex), formula 26 corrected, discussion enlarged, references updated and other minor change