Secularism, fundamentalism or Catholicism: the religious composition of the United States to 2043

We provide a cohort-component projection of the religious composition of the United States, considering differences in fertility, migration, intergenerational religious transmission, and switching among 11 ethnoreligious groups. If fertility and migration trends continue, Hispanic Catholics will experience rapid growth and expand from 10 to 18 percent of the American population between 2003 and 2043. Protestants are projected to decrease from 47 to 39 percent over the same period, while Catholicism emerges as the largest religion among the youngest age cohorts. Liberal Protestants decline relative to other groups due to low fertility and losses from religious switching. Immigration drives growth among Hindus and Muslims, while low fertility and a mature age structure causes Jewish decline. The low fertility of secular Americans and the religiosity of immigrants provide a countervailing force to secularization, causing the nonreligious population share to peak before 2043

Worldwide Use and Impact of the NASA Astrophysics Data System Digital Library

By combining data from the text, citation, and reference databases with data from the ADS readership logs we have been able to create Second Order Bibliometric Operators, a customizable class of collaborative filters which permits substantially improved accuracy in literature queries. Using the ADS usage logs along with membership statistics from the International Astronomical Union and data on the population and gross domestic product (GDP) we develop an accurate model for world-wide basic research where the number of scientists in a country is proportional to the GDP of that country, and the amount of basic research done by a country is proportional to the number of scientists in that country times that country's per capita GDP. We introduce the concept of utility time to measure the impact of the ADS/URANIA and the electronic astronomical library on astronomical research. We find that in 2002 it amounted to the equivalent of 736 FTE researchers, or $250 Million, or the astronomical research done in France. Subject headings: digital libraries; bibliometrics; sociology of science; information retrievalComment: ADS bibcode: 2005JASIS..56...36K This is a portion (The bibliometric properties of article readership information is the other part) of the article: The NASA Astrophysics Data System: Sociology, bibliometrics and impact, which went on-line in the summer of 200

Road Ecology: Shifting Gears Toward Evolutionary Perspectives

Recent advances in understanding the often rapid pace of evolution are reshaping our view of organisms and their capacity to cope with environmental change. Though evolutionary perspectives have gained traction in many fields of conservation, road ecology is not among them. This is surprising because roads are pervasive landscape features that generate intense natural selection. The biological outcomes from these selection pressures – whether adaptive or maladaptive – can have profound consequences for population persistence. We argue that studying evolutionary responses is critical to accurately understand the impacts of roads. Toward that end, we describe the basic tenets and relevance of contemporary evolution and showcase the few examples where it has been documented in road ecology. We outline practical ways that road ecologists can estimate and interpret evolutionary responses in their research. Finally, we suggest priority research topics and discuss how evolutionary insights can inform conservation in landscapes traversed by roads

Survivalism, collectivism and proud heritage: A study of informal arts and crafts entrepreneurship in rural Zimbabwe

Background: Entrepreneurship has most often been studied in the context of developed economies and results extrapolated to apply universally. This tells us little about entrepreneurship in other contexts, including in developing economy situations. In the developing world, entrepreneurship has been explored as a means of reducing poverty, but there has been little inspection of it from other perspectives.   Aim: This article explores the motives and experiences of arts and crafts traders in rural Zimbabwe and provides information about the purposes of the business for financial and social life from the perspectives of our research participants.   Method: The study used a qualitative methodology, conducting interviews with 12 rural arts and crafts traders.   Results: The research identifies drivers, experiences and outcomes of entrepreneurship that are explained by the unique structural and sociocultural context, and the value ascribed to business refers both to financial income and the dissemination of culture and heritage. Evidence of specific sub-Saharan modes of conducting business, reflecting the collectivity, reciprocity and strong ethnic identity characteristics of sub-Saharan African societies also emerges.   Conclusion: The article illustrates that western models of business and entrepreneurship may be limited in terms of informing us about the experiences in other contexts. We argue that research on entrepreneurship, and any policy on it in sub-Saharan Africa, takes cognisance of the non-western context and the potential for unique contextual business orientation and outcomes

Impact of Rising World Rice Prices on Poverty and Inequality in Burkina Faso

Between January 2006 and April 2008, the prices of most agricultural products rose considerably in international markets. Empirical studies show that this spike in world food prices increased the number of poor households in developing countries, but the extent was not the same in all countries. This article assesses the impact of rising rice prices on poverty and income inequality in Burkina Faso, using a methodology based on the concept of compensating variation combined with the net benefit ratio (NBR) developed by Deaton (1989) and a living standard survey (QUIBB, 2003). The results show that higher prices have a negative impact on income and poverty in the regions with a large proportion of households that are net buyers of rice. The poverty rate increases by 2.2 to 2.9 percentage points depending on the assumptions, the increase being higher in urban areas than in rural areas. Rising rice prices also increase income inequality, which increases particularly in urban areas and in relatively rich regions, but decreases in poor regions with a large proportion of rice producers

Demand for Genetic Resources and the U.S. National Plant Germplasm System

Although genetic resources have strong public-goods characteristics, public genebanks often have struggled for adequate funding. A review of economic literature on the value of plant genetic resources indicated that more information is needed about germplasm use. The data compiled in this paper examine patterns of germplasm use for one of the world\u27s largest national genebank networks, the U.S. National Plant Germplasm System (NPGS). Data on 10 major crops, gathered directly from within the NPGS and from end-users, revealed patterns of usage for germplasm during the period from 1995 to 1999. Data were collected describing the characteristics of NPGS users, the types of germplasm requested, the purpose of requests, and, when applicable, the specific traits sought. From these findings, we estimated the utility of distributed materials, their secondary use, and projected future demand for NPGS resources. To explore relationships between the usefulness of germplasm samples and accompanying data in a more systematic fashion, we estimated a linear regression. The regression model suggests that accompanying data make germplasm more useful. We conclude that demand for NPGS resources was substantial and came from broad range of users. Utilization rates were higher than suggested by past studies. Countries with developing economies made greater use of NPGS resources, relatively speaking, than did countries with high-income economies. Finally, demand for NPGS resources is likely to increase, especially among users in countries with developing economies

Low emission development strategies in agriculture. An agriculture, forestry, and other land uses (AFOLU) perspective

As countries experience economic growth and choose among available development pathways, they are in a favorable position to adopt natural resource use technologies and production practices that favor efficient use of inputs, healthy soils, and ecosystems. Current emphasis on increasing resilience to climate change and reducing agricultural greenhouse gasses (GHG) emissions strengthens the support for sustainable agricultural production. In fact, reducing losses in soil fertility, reclaiming degraded lands, and promoting synergistic interaction between crop production and forests are generally seen as good climate change policies. In order for decision-makers to develop long-term policies that address these issues, they must have tools at their disposal that evaluate trade-offs, opportunities, and repercussions of the options considered. In this paper, the authors combine and reconcile the output of three models widely accessible to the public to analyze the impacts of policies that target emission reduction in the agricultural sector. We present an application to Colombia which reveals the importance of considering the full scope of interactions among the various land uses. Results indicate that investments in increasing the efficiency and productivity of the livestock sector and reducing land allocated to pasture are preferable to policies that target deforestation alone or target a reduction of emissions in crop production. Investments in livestock productivity and land-carrying capacity would reduce deforestation and provide sufficient gains in carbon stock to offset greater emissions from increased crop production while generating higher revenues