Evidence of recent fertility decline in Eritrea: an analysis of trends and determinants

This paper contributes to an improved understanding of the recent fertility decline in Eritrea and the possible factors underlying it. Based on data from the 2002 Eritrea Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS), it offers increased clarity as to whether the recent decline indicates the onset of a long-term fertility transition or if it is merely a short-term response to the border conflict with Ethiopia (mid-1998-2000). Various methods, including period trend analyses by age and parity, cohort fertility analysis, and multivariate statistical methods, are used to assess the extent of the decline and to identify major contributors to it. The evidence from this study indicates that fertility decline has started in Eritrea and that it has occurred in urban and rural areas, and in every region of the country. The decline is evident across all reproductive ages and birth orders, but is stronger among older mothers and for higher-order births. A prolonged spacing of births, cessation of further childbearing, and delayed age at marriage are the main contributors to the overall fertility decline. The study also reveals that the fertility decline started in the mid-1990s, well before the conflict, but it was faster during the peak years of the border conflict (1999-2000). This suggests that the reduction in fertility is not primarily an outcome of the border conflict (nor a temporary phenomenon), but that it might be the beginning of a long-term fertility transition, which was then accelerated by the border war and the associated social and economic crisis.Eritrea, fertility

Women’s status and reproductive preferences in Eritrea

The importance of women’s decision-making autonomy has recently emerged as a key factor in influencing reproductive preferences and demand for family planning in developing countries. In this study, the effect of direct indicators of women’s decision-making autonomy on fertility preferences and ever-use of modern contraception is examined using logistic regression models with and without proxy indicators. The results provide evidence that different dimensions of women’s autonomy influence the outcome variables differently in terms of magnitude and statistical significance. Particularly, women’s final say in decisions regarding day-to-day household purchases and spousal communication about family planning are influential predictors of fertility preferences and ever-use of modern family planning methods. At the same time, results show that the effects of women’s education on fertility preferences are not always significant although it has significant roles in affecting women’s decision-making autonomy. Women’s household economic situation has always significant effects on women’s autonomy as well as on fertility preferences and ever use of contraception. Thus, a complete explanation of the relationship between women’s autonomy and reproductive preferences must recognize the effects of both proxy and direct indicators of women’s autonomy. Interventions are needed to improve women’s decision-making autonomy and strengthen their negotiating capacity for family planning use if an increased desire to limit fertility is to be attained.Eritrea, family planning, fertility, women's status

Teenage childbearing and child health in Eritrea

Data from the 2002 Eritrea Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) are used to examine teenage childbearing and its health consequences. Bivariate analysis is used to calculate trends and differentials in teenage childbearing. Logistic and Cox hazard models are employed to examine the health impact of teenage childbearing on mothers and their children. Teenage childbearing is high in Eritrea, where around half of all women aged 19 have already been pregnant with their first child. Nearly all first births among teenagers occur within marriage. A decline in teenage childbearing is evident over the period 1995-2002. If the mother is a teenager when she gives birth, particularly if she is under 18, she can expect worse prenatal medical care, an increased risk of low birth weight and higher child mortality compared to an older mother. The effect of age of mothers is significant even when controlling for sociodemographic factors. Strategies designed to reduce the health effecs of teenage childbearing should address both maternal age and behavioral factors.

Symbolic integration of a product of two spherical bessel functions with an additional exponential and polynomial factor

We present a mathematica package that performs the symbolic calculation of integrals of the form \int^{\infty}_0 e^{-x/u} x^n j_{\nu} (x) j_{\mu} (x) dx where $j_{\nu} (x)$ and $j_{\mu} (x)$ denote spherical Bessel functions of integer orders, with $\nu \ge 0$ and $\mu \ge 0$. With the real parameter $u>0$ and the integer $n$, convergence of the integral requires that $n+\nu +\mu \ge 0$. The package provides analytical result for the integral in its most simplified form. The novel symbolic method employed enables the calculation of a large number of integrals of the above form in a fraction of the time required for conventional numerical and Mathematica based brute-force methods. We test the accuracy of such analytical expressions by comparing the results with their numerical counterparts.Comment: 17 pages; updated references for the introductio

County-Level Determinants of Local Public Services in Appalachia: A Multivariate Spatial Autoregressive Model Approach

In this paper, multivariate spatial autoregressive model of local public expenditure determination is developed. The empirical model is developed based on maximization of community utility function. The model is estimate by efficient GMM using Appalachian counties and the results indicate significant spatial spillover effects with respect to local public expenditures.Public Economics,

Declining Fertility in Eritrea Since the Mid-1990s: A Demographic Response to Military Conflict

Between the mid-1990s and the early part of the new century, the total fertility rate in Eritrea declined by twenty one percent. Even more striking than the magnitude of this decline within a short period is that it occurred in the absence of any improvements in contraceptive use and without any evident reduction in desired family size. In this study, fertility decline and its underlying factors are examined using data from two waves of the Eritrea Demographic and Health Surveys. The central question is whether the recent decline is an outcome of the 1998-2000 border conflict, is related to changes in women's reproductive intentions, or is due to socio-economic transformations. The findings demonstrate that the fertility decline, especially for first births, is the result less of increased demand for family size limitation and more of the border conflict. Although the conflict seems to have played a role in accelerating the decline in higher-order births, the change seems to be a long-term transition that started before the conflict. These findings imply that military conflicts are unlikely to instigate sustainable fertility decline, but may prompt short-term fertility changes among certain groups or modify an ongoing decline

Speech synthesis : Developing a web application implementing speech technology

Speech is a natural media of communication for humans. Text-to-speech (TTS) technology uses a computer to synthesize speech. There are three main techniques of TTS synthesis. These are formant-based, articulatory and concatenative. The application areas of TTS include accessibility, education, entertainment and communication aid in mass transit. A web application was developed to demonstrate the application of speech synthesis technology. Existing speech synthesis engines for the Finnish language were compared and two open source text to speech engines, Festival and Espeak were selected to be used with the web application. The application uses a Linux-based speech server which communicates with client devices with the HTTP-GET protocol. The application development successfully demonstrated the use of speech synthesis in language learning. One of the emerging sectors of speech technologies is the mobile market due to limited input capabilities in mobile devices. Speech technologies are not equally available in all languages. Text in the Oromo language was tested using Finnish speech synthesizers; due to similar rules in orthography of germination of consonants and length of vowels, legible results were gained