Vegetation responses to abrupt climatic changes during the Last Interglacial Complex (Marine Isotope Stage 5) at Tenaghi Philippon, NE Greece

The discovery that climate variability during the Last Glacial shifted rapidly between climate states has intensified efforts to understand the distribution, timing and impact of abrupt climate change under a wide range of boundary conditions. In contribution to this, we investigate the nature of abrupt environmental changes in terrestrial settings of the Mediterranean region during the Last Interglacial Complex (Marine Isotope Stage [MIS] 5) and explore the relationships of these changes to high-latitude climate events. We present a new, temporally highly resolved (mean: 170 years) pollen record for the Last Interglacial Complex from Tenaghi Philippon, north-east Greece. The new pollen record, which spans the interval from 130,000 to 65,000 years ago, forms part of an exceptionally long polleniferous sediment archive covering the last 1.35 million years. The pollen data reveal an interglacial followed by alternating forest and steppe phases representing the interstadials and stadials of the Early Glacial. Superimposed on these millennial-scale changes is evidence of persistent sub-millennial-scale variability. We identify ten high-amplitude abrupt events in the pollen record, characterised by rapid contractions of closed forest to open steppe environment and interpreted to indicate major changes in moisture availability and temperature. The contractions in forest cover on millennial timescales appear associated with cooling events in the Mediterranean Sea, North Atlantic and Greenland regions, linked to the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) cycles of the Early Glacial. On sub-millennial timescales, the pattern of changes in forest cover at Tenaghi Philippon display a structure similar to the pattern of short-lived precursor and rebound-type events detected in the Greenland ice-core record. Our findings indicate that persistent, high-amplitude environmental variability occurred throughout the Early Glacial, on both millennial and submillennial timescales. Furthermore, the similarity of the pattern of change between Tenaghi Philippon and Greenland on sub-millennial timescales suggests that teleconnections between the high-latitudes and the Mediterranean region operate on sub-millennial timescales and that some terrestrial archives, such as Tenaghi Philippon, are particularly sensitive recorders of these abrupt climate changes

Sea level and climate changes during OIS 5e in the Western Mediterranean

Palaeontological, geomorphological and sedimentological data supported by isotopic dating on Oxygen Isotopic Stage (OIS) 5e deposits from the Spanish Mediterranean coast, are interpreted with the aim of reconstructing climatic instability in the Northern Hemisphere. Data point to marked climatic instability during the Last Interglacial (OIS 5e), with a change in meteorological conditions and, consequently, in the sedimentary environment. The oolitic facies generated during the first part of OIS 5e (ca. 135 kyr) shift into reddish conglomeratic facies during the second part (ca. 117 kyr). Sea surface Temperature (SST) and salinity are interpreted mainly on the basis of warm Senegalese fauna, which show chronological and spatial differential distribution throughout the Western Mediterranean. Present hydrological and meteorological conditions are used also as modern analogues to reconstruct climatic variability throughout the Last Interglacial, and this variability is interpreted within the wider framework of the North Atlantic record. All the available data indicate an increase in storminess induced by an increase in the influence of northwesterlies, a slight drop of SST in the northern Western Mediterranean, and an important change in meteorological conditions at the end of OIS 5e (117 kyr). These changes correlate well with the decrease in summer insolation and with the climatic instability recorded in North Atlantic high latitudes

Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe

We discuss potential transitions of six climatic subsystems with large-scale impact on Europe, sometimes denoted as tipping elements. These are the ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Arctic sea ice, Alpine glaciers and northern hemisphere stratospheric ozone. Each system is represented by co-authors actively publishing in the corresponding field. For each subsystem we summarize the mechanism of a potential transition in a warmer climate along with its impact on Europe and assess the likelihood for such a transition based on published scientific literature. As a summary, the ‘tipping’ potential for each system is provided as a function of global mean temperature increase which required some subjective interpretation of scientific facts by the authors and should be considered as a snapshot of our current understanding. <br/

To meat or not to meat? New perspectives on Neanderthal ecology.

Neanderthals have been commonly depicted as top predators who met their nutritional needs by focusing entirely on meat. This information mostly derives from faunal assemblage analyses and stable isotope studies: methods that tend to underestimate plant consumption and overestimate the intake of animal proteins. Several studies in fact demonstrate that there is a physiological limit to the amount of animal proteins that can be consumed: exceeding these values causes protein toxicity that can be particularly dangerous to pregnant women and newborns. Consequently, to avoid food poisoning from meat-based diets, Neanderthals must have incorporated alternative food sources in their daily diets, including plant materials as well

Holocene paleoclimate data from the Arctic: testing models of global climate change

To evaluate the spatial variability of Arctic climate change during the present interglacial, CAPE Project Members compiled well-dated terrestrial, marine, and ice-core paleoenvironmental records spanning the past 10-12 thousand years (ka). Six tundra biomes of increasing summer temperature requirements were defined based on regionally coherent pollen assemblages. Using a rule-based approach, pollen spectra were converted to tundra, forest/tundra, or forest biomes ranked by their average growing season requirements. Marine sea-surface reconstructions were based on proxy data following a similar rule-based approach. From these data-based reconstructions, departures in summer temperatures from modern normals were calculated in 1 ka time slices through the Holocene. To test predictive models, data-based summer temperature reconstructions were compared with general circulation model (GCM) simulations for 10 ka and 6 ka ago. Paleodata and model results both show that warming occurred earlier across Beringia and Asia relative to lands adjacent to the North Atlantic, and that Late Holocene cooling was most apparent in the North Atlantic region. However, the GCM over-predicts the magnitude of Mid-Holocene warming over northern Asia and underestimates the intensification of the North Atlantic drift in the early Holocene. Strong spatial variability in environmental response during the Holocene, despite symmetric (insolation) forcing, suggests that any future changes, whether caused by anthropogenic or natural factors, are unlikely to result in a uniform change across the Arctic, adding additional complexity to forecasts of global impacts

Using Ice Cores and Gaussian Process Emulation to Recover Changes in the Greenland Ice Sheet During the Last Interglacial

The shape and extent of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) during the Last Interglacial (LIG) is a matter of controversy, with different studies proposing a wide range of reconstructions. Here, for the first time, we combine stable water isotopic information from ice cores with isotope‐enabled climate model outputs to investigate the problem. Exploring the space of possible ice‐sheet geometries by simulation is prohibitively expensive. We address this problem by using a Gaussian process emulator as a statistical surrogate of the full climate model. The emulator is calibrated using the results of a small number of carefully chosen simulations, and then permits fast, probabilistic predictions of the simulator outputs at untried inputs. The inputs are GIS morphologies, parameterised through a dimension‐reduction technique adapted to the spherical geometry of the setting. Based on the emulator predictions, the characteristics of morphologies compatible with the available ice‐core measurements are explored, leading to a reduction in uncertainty on the LIG GIS morphology. Moreover, a scenario‐based approach allows to assess the gains in uncertainty reduction which would result from the availability of better‐dated LIG measurements in Greenland ice cores

Simulating climate and stable water isotopes during the Last Interglacial using a coupled climate-isotope model

Understanding the dynamics of warm climate states has gained increasing importance in the face of anthropogenic climate change, and while it is possible to simulate warm interglacial climates, these simulated results cannot be evaluated without the aid of geochemical proxies. One such proxy is δ18O, which allows for inference about both a climate state's hydrology and temperature. We utilize a stable water isotope equipped climate model to simulate three stages during the Last Interglacial (LIG), corresponding to 130, 125, and 120 kyr before present, using forcings for orbital configuration as well as greenhouse gases. We discover heterogeneous responses in the mean δ18O signal to the climate forcing, with large areas of depletion in the LIG δ18O signal over the tropical Atlantic, the Sahel, and the Indian subcontinent, and with enrichment over the Pacific and Arctic Oceans. While we find that the climatology mean relationship between δ18O and temperature remains stable during the LIG, we also discover that this relationship is not spatially consistent. Our results suggest that great care must be taken when comparing δ18O records of different paleoclimate archives with the results of climate models as both the qualitative and quantitative interpretation of δ18O variations as a proxy for past temperature changes may be problematic due to the complexity of the signals