Population Size, Per Capita Income, and the Risk of Civil War: Regional Heterogeneity in the Structural Relationship Matters

A common finding in the empirical civil war literature is that population size and per capita income are highly significant predictors of civil war incidence and onset. This paper shows that the common finding of population size and per capita income having a significant average effect on civil war risk in a world sample breaks down once countryand year-specific unobservables are accounted for. However, for Sub-Saharan Africa there continues to be a highly significant average effect of population size and per capita income on civil war risk that is robust to the use of country- and year-fixed effects and instrumental variable techniques.population size, per capita income, civil war

Strategic delegation and international capital taxation

The literature on tax competition generally concludes that international coordination of capital taxes among symmetric countries increases tax rates. This paper investigates whether this conclusion also holds in a political economy framework where taxes are set by elected policy makers. It shows that policy makers are fiscally more liberal than the average citizen if taxes are set non-cooperatively. However, fiscally more conservative policy makers are elected if taxes are set cooperatively. The introduction of tax coordination cannot remove the incentive to compete for foreign capital, but simply shifts it to the election stage. The paper proves that with standard specifications of the utility functions, coordination leads to lower tax rates than competition. --Tax competition,tax coordination,strategic delegation

Does broad money matter for interest rate policy?

This paper presents a business cycle model with financial intermediation encompassing the conventional New Keynesian model. Households’ financial wealth comprises cash and interest bearing deposits. When deposits provide transaction services, real broad money, which is predetermined, affects aggregate demand and has a stabilizing impact. Monetary policy can ensure equilibrium uniqueness if the central bank reacts at least slightly on the real broad money gap. Moreover, if the central bank aims at minimizing a standard loss function, real broad money enters the interest rate reaction function. Thus, money matters if it is defined broadly enough to include all households’ financial assets. --Interest rate policy,real broad money,financial wealth,macroeconomic stability

Food Prices and Political Instability

We examine the effects that variations in the international food prices have on democracy and intra-state conflict using panel data for over 120 countries during the period 1970-2007. Our main finding is that in Low Income Countries increases in the international food prices lead to a significant deterioration of democratic institutions and a significant increase in the incidence of anti-government demonstrations, riots, and civil conflict. In the High Income Countries variations in the international food prices have no significant effects on democratic institutions and measures of intra-state conflict. Our empirical results point to a significant externality of variations in international food prices on Low Income Countries' social and political stability.food prices, conflict, political institutions

Rain and the democratic window of opportunity

According to the economic approach to political transitions, transitory negative economic shocks can open a window of opportunity for democratic improvement. Testing the theory requires a source of transitory shocks to the aggregate economy. We use rainfall shocks in Sub-Saharan African countries and find that negative rainfall shocks are followed by significant improvement in democratic institutions. Instrumental variables estimates indicate that following a transitory negative income shock of 1 percent, democracy scores improve by 0.9 percentage points and the probability of a democratic transition increases by 1.3 percentage points.Democratization, transitory economic shocks

Commodity Windfalls, Polarization, and Net Foreign Assets: Panel Data Evidence on the Voracity Effect

This paper examines the effects that windfalls from international commodity price booms have on net foreign assets in a panel of 145 countries during the period 1970-2007. The main finding is that windfalls from international commodity price booms lead to a significant increase in net foreign assets, but only in countries that are ethnically homogeneous. In highly ethnically polarized countries, net foreign assets significantly decreased. To explain this asymmetry, the paper shows that in ethnically polarized countries commodity windfalls lead to large increases in government consumption expenditures and political corruption. The paper's findings are consistent with theoretical models of the current account that have a built-in voracity effect.commodity windfalls, net foreign assets, polarization

International commodity prices, growth and the outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa

To learn more about the effect of economic conditions on civil war, we examine whether Sub-Saharan civil wars are more likely to start following downturns in the international price of countries’ main export commodities. The data show a robust effect of commodity price downturns on the outbreak of civil wars. We also find that Sub-Saharan countries are more likely to see civil wars following economic downturns in their main OECD export destinations.Commodity prices, civil war, Sub-Saharian Africa

Can Money Matter for Interest Rate Policy?

In this paper it is shown that money can matter for macroeconomic stability under interest rate policy, if transactions frictions are specified in a consistent way. We develop a sticky price model with a shopping time specification, which induces the marginal utility of consumption to depend on the (predetermined) stock of money held at the beginning of the period. Saddle path stability is then ensured by a passive interest rate policy, whereas activeness is associated with an explosive equilibrium path unless the central bank reacts to changes in beginning-of-period real balances. When the central bank aims at minimizing macroeconomic distortions, real balances enter the interest rate feedback rule under discretionary optimization. If it is alternatively assumed that end-of-period money provides transaction services, money can be neglected for interest rate policy in order to implement the optimal plan. However, the equilibrium under the targeting rule is likely to be indetermined, allowing for endogenous fluctuations, which can be avoided by the central bank implementing the optimal plan with an interest rate feedback rule featuring beginning-of-period real balances.Transactions frictions, predetermined money, real balance effects, saddle path stability, discretionary optimization

Monetary policy in unknown territory: The European Central Bank in the early years

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A phenomenological analysis of antiproton interactions at low energies

We present an optical potential analysis of the antiproton-proton interactions at low energies. Our optical potential is purely phenomenological, and has been parametrized on data recently obtained by the Obelix Collaboration at momenta below 180 MeV/c. It reasonably fits annihilation and elastic data below 600 MeV/c, and allows us for an evaluation of the elastic cross section and rho-parameter down to zero kinetic energy. Moreover we show that the mechanism that depresses antiproton-nucleus annihilation cross sections at low energies is present in antiproton-proton interactions too.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figure