Reaping what others have sown: Measuring the Impact of the global financial crisis on Spanish agriculture

Este estudio utiliza un modelo de equilibrio general computable recursivo y dinámico de España para caracterizar el impacto de la crisis financiera sobre la agricultura, centrándose en particular en los impactos divergentes sobre actividades agrarias específicas. Los resultados tienen implicaciones para los países mediterráneos vecinos de la UE, dadas las similitudes en la dimensión relativa y la estructura del sector agrario y las dificultades macroeconómicas a las que se enfrentan. Se estima que la crisis acarrea una contracción acumulativa del 8 por ciento en la actividad agraria española para 2015, con la consiguiente reducción en la renta real de los agricultores del 9%. Sin embargo, de acuerdo con la bibliografía anterior y con las expectativas a priori, esta contracción es considerablemente menor que en los sectores no alimentarios. Cuando se hacen comparaciones entre actividades agrarias, la respuesta de la oferta ante la crisis varía notablemente debido a la distinta intensidad con la que se utilizaban los inputs y los destinos de las ventas. Los sectores con mayor elasticidad de oferta son aquellos caracterizados por una mayor intensidad de capital o de mano de obra no cualificada, o aquellos sectores más expuestos a mercados con un comercio competitivo; mientras que los sectores que hacen un uso intensivo del suelo son más resistentes a la recesión económica. Finalmente, se observa que existen mayores desigualdades de rentas entre los hogares españoles, con una caída de la utilidad del consumo de productos alimentarios del 10% en el segmento más pobre, en comparación con sólo el 1% en el más rico.characterise the impact of the financial crisis on agriculture, with particular focus on the divergent impacts on specific agricultural activities. The results have broad implications for neighbouring Mediterranean EU economies given similarities in the relative size and structure of primary agriculture, and in the macroeconomic difficulties they face. Comparing with a baseline scenario, it is estimated that the crisis induces a cumulative contraction of 8 per cent in Spanish agricultural activity by 2015, with concomitant reductions in real farming incomes of 9 per cent. Notwithstanding, in accordance with previous literature and a priori expectations, this contraction is notably smaller than in non-food sectors. Comparing between agricultural activities, the supply response to the crisis varies considerably owing to differing input intensities and sales destinations. The highest supply responsiveness occurs in relatively capital or unskilled labour intensive sectors, or export orientated sectors; whilst land intensive sectors are more resistant to the economic downturn. Finally, we find greater income inequality across Spanish households, with utility from food consumption falling 10% in the poorest segment, compared with only 1% in the wealthiest.agriculturaequilibrio general computableagricultureComputable General EquilibriumPublishe

Reaping What Others Have Sown: Measuring the Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Spanish Agriculture

Employing a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Spanish economy, this study explicitly aims to characterise in detail the impact of the crisis on Spanish agrofood activities. In particular, we focus on the extent to which primary agricultural sectors are insulated from the broader macroeconomic effects of the crisis and consequently the limit of the agrofood sectors’ stabilising role within the wider economy. The results have broad implications for neighbouring Mediterranean EU economies given similarities in the relative size and structure of primary agriculture, and in the macroeconomic difficulties they face. Comparing with a status quo (i.e., no crisis) baseline, we estimate that the conditions of the crisis lead to a cumulative contraction of 10 per cent in Spanish agricultural activity by 2015, with concomitant reductions in real farming incomes of 17%. Notwithstanding, in accordance with previous studies and a priori expectations, this contraction is notably smaller than in non-food sectors. Comparing between agricultural activities, those with smaller land cost shares exhibit greater supply responsiveness, particularly rice, raw sugar and intensive livestock sectors. Finally, the crisis induces greater income inequality across Spanish households, with utility from food consumption falling 11% in the poorest segment, compared with only 1% in the wealthiest

Kyoto and Mañana: A CGE analysis of Spanish Greenhouse Gas targets to 2020

Employing a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Spanish economy, this study explicitly aims to characterise the potential impact of Kyoto and European Union environmental policy targets on the Spanish economy up to 2020, with a particular focus on the agricultural sector. The model code is modified to characterise the emissions trading scheme (ETS), emissions quotas and carbon taxes, whilst emissions reductions are applied to all six registered greenhouse gases (GHGs). As extensions to this work, the study attempts to integrate both the use of ‘Marginal Abatement Cost’ (MAC) curves for potential emissions reductions within the agricultural sector, and econometric estimates of the effects of global warming on land productivity in Spain. The study includes a no action baseline (with 2007 as the benchmark year), in which GHGs are not restricted in any sector of the economy. This is compared to an emissions stabilisation scenario, in which the European Union’s Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is implemented, and all of Spain’s commitments under Kyoto, and various pieces of EU climate change legislation, are met. Under this scenario, the policy-induced price rises of polluting inputs and processes determines the allocation of emissions reductions amongst the various industries in the economy. Given the agricultural focus of the study, the modelling of emissions response in this sector is further enhanced by the inclusion of MAC curves. These map out an endogenous technological response to price rises, and the extent to which the emissions coefficient (e.g. N2O per Kg of fertiliser applied, or CH4 per head of cattle) can be reduced, such that the same quantity of input emits a smaller amount of GHGs. A flexible functional form is used to calibrate the MAC curves to data from the IIASAs GAINS model , which includes potential emissions reductions, and associated costs, of all major technological advances in agriculture currently ...Publishe

El control de las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero en España: costes para los sectores agrarios

Employing a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Spanish economy, this study explicitly aims to characterise the potential impact of Kyoto and European Union environmental policy targets on specific agricultural activities up to 2020. The model code is modified to characterise the emissions trading scheme (ETS), emissions quotas and carbon taxes, whilst emissions reductions are applied to all six registered greenhouse gases (GHGs). Compared to a ‘business-as-usual’ baseline scenario, by 2020, GDP and employment fall 2.1% and 2.4%, respectively, whilst the retail price index rises 3.4%. In agriculture, the indices of output (4.3% fall), and supply price (7.7% rise) perform relatively worse, whilst there is a concomitant cumulative fall in aggregate farm incomes of €1,510 million by 2020. The more notable impact in agriculture is attributed to its relatively higher emissions intensity. Consequently, we record an agricultural marginal abatement cost estimate of €86 ton–1 of CO2 equivalent by 2020, which is consistent with other estimates in the literature. In addition, we find that the optimal mix of emissions reductions across specific agricultural sectors is a function of the degree of substitutability of their emitting activities. In light of estimated income losses within the strategically important farm sector, a final simulation contemplates an ‘agricultural cost-neutral’ emissions reduction policy akin to a cross compliance payment between 2013 and 2020. This is found to reduce food price rises, whilst altering the optimum mix of agricultural emissions reductions across specific agricultural activities.Empleando un modelo dinámico recursivo de equilibrio general computable (EGC) de la economía española, este estudio analiza el impacto de las políticas medioambientales de Kioto y de la Unión Europea (el acuerdo ‘20/20/20’), sobre distintas actividades agrarias hasta 2020. En comparación con el escenario de referencia, se pronostican caídas en el PIB y el empleo de un 2,1% y 2,4%, respectivamente, en 2020, mientras que el índice de precios al consumo sube un 3,4%. En agricultura, el índice de producción (que cae un 4,3%) y el de precios (aumenta un 7,7%), empeoran y además los ingresos acumulados de los agricultores bajan 1.510 millones de euros en 2020. El impacto más acusado en el sector agrario se atribuye a la mayor intensidad de sus emisiones donde se estima un coste marginal de reducción de 86 € t–1 de CO2 equivalente para 2020, lo cual es consistente con las estimaciones existentes en la bibliografía. Además se observa que la combinación óptima de reducción de emisiones en los diferentes sectores agrarios depende del grado de sustitución de las actividades emisoras. A la vista de las pérdidas de ingresos observadas en el sector agrario, se contempla un escenario de mitigación de coste-cero para los agricultores, semejante a un pago de condicionalidad, entre 2013 y 2020. Los resultados señalan una mitigación en el incremento de los precios de los alimentos y una redistribución en la combinación óptima de las emisiones en los sectores agrarios

Sugar and Spice and all things nice? Assessing the Impact of the 2006 EU sugar regime reforms

This paper investigates the economic impacts of the reforms both on the EU sugar sector but also more globally and examines the intended and unintended consequences of the reforms. This provides insights into the likely impacts of the further reforms proposed for 2015 – namely the removal of sugar beet quotas within the EU. We find, in line with other studies that whilst the reforms have improved the economic efficiency of the EU sugar sector the nature of the reform process has meant that these gains have not been maximised. This is due to the fact that production was cut in some of the more efficient regions of Europe as well as the least efficient. Our modelling highlights that the reforms have led to alternative trade patterns emerging both internally within the EU as well as externally. Internally, cessation of production in a number of countries provides opportunities for those remaining in production. Externally the significant decline in EU sugar on the world market has provided opportunities for other countries. It would appear that Brazil and Thailand have been amongst the main beneficiaries of the disappearance of EU sugar from the world market

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.

BACKGROUND: Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. FINDINGS: Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2·9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2·9-3·0) for men and 3·5 years (3·4-3·7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0·85 years (0·78-0·92) and 1·2 years (1·1-1·3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. INTERPRETATION: Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. Methods We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61.7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61.4-61.9) in 1980 to 71.8 years (71.5-72.2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11.3 years (3.7-17.4), to 62.6 years (56.5-70.2). Total deaths increased by 4.1% (2.6-5.6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55.8 million (54.9 million to 56.6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17.0% (15.8-18.1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14.1% (12.6-16.0) to 39.8 million (39.2 million to 40.5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13.1% (11.9-14.3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42.1%, 39.1-44.6), malaria (43.1%, 34.7-51.8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29.8%, 24.8-34.9), and maternal disorders (29.1%, 19.3-37.1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death. Interpretation At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

A computable general equilibrium assessment of Spain' greenhouse gas emissions policies and abatement options (abstract)

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