Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of “leaving no one behind”. Understanding today’s gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990–2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. Methods We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61.7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61.4-61.9) in 1980 to 71.8 years (71.5-72.2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11.3 years (3.7-17.4), to 62.6 years (56.5-70.2). Total deaths increased by 4.1% (2.6-5.6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55.8 million (54.9 million to 56.6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17.0% (15.8-18.1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14.1% (12.6-16.0) to 39.8 million (39.2 million to 40.5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13.1% (11.9-14.3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42.1%, 39.1-44.6), malaria (43.1%, 34.7-51.8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29.8%, 24.8-34.9), and maternal disorders (29.1%, 19.3-37.1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death. Interpretation At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

A Simple Self-Calibrating Method To Measure the Height of Fluorescent Molecules and Beads at Nanoscale Resolution

We describe a simple self-calibrating technique, incident-beam interference sweeping, for measuring the height of fluorescent labels. Using a tilted back-reflecting mirror and a scanning laser beam, a modulated fluorescence emission allows height determination of a label from a surface with a resolution of ∼3 nm. In addition, we show that the absolute distance of a label from the top-mounted mirror can be determined with a resolution of a few tens of nanometers over a micrometer range

Dynamics of nucleosome remodelling by individual ACF complexes.

The ATP-dependent chromatin assembly and remodelling factor (ACF) functions to generate regularly spaced nucleosomes, which are required for heritable gene silencing. The mechanism by which ACF mobilizes nucleosomes remains poorly understood. Here we report a single-molecule FRET study that monitors the remodelling of individual nucleosomes by ACF in real time, revealing previously unknown remodelling intermediates and dynamics. In the presence of ACF and ATP, the nucleosomes exhibit gradual translocation along DNA interrupted by well-defined kinetic pauses that occurred after approximately seven or three to four base pairs of translocation. The binding of ACF, translocation of DNA and exiting of translocation pauses are all ATP-dependent, revealing three distinct functional roles of ATP during remodelling. At equilibrium, a continuously bound ACF complex can move the nucleosome back-and-forth many times before dissociation, indicating that ACF is a highly processive and bidirectional nucleosome translocase

ISWI Remodelers Slide Nucleosomes with Coordinated Multi-Base-Pair Entry Steps and Single-Base-Pair Exit Steps

SummaryISWI-family enzymes remodel chromatin by sliding nucleosomes along DNA, but the nucleosome translocation mechanism remains unclear. Here we use single-molecule FRET to probe nucleosome translocation by ISWI-family remodelers. Distinct ISWI-family members translocate nucleosomes with a similar stepping pattern maintained by the catalytic subunit of the enzyme. Nucleosome remodeling begins with a 7 bp step of DNA translocation followed by 3 bp subsequent steps toward the exit side of nucleosomes. These multi-bp, compound steps are comprised of 1 bp substeps. DNA movement on the entry side of the nucleosome occurs only after 7 bp of exit-side translocation, and each entry-side step draws in a 3 bp equivalent of DNA that allows three additional base pairs to be moved to the exit side. Our results suggest a remodeling mechanism with well-defined coordination at different nucleosomal sites featuring DNA translocation toward the exit side in 1 bp steps preceding multi-bp steps of DNA movement on the entry side

Decoding molecular and cellular heterogeneity of mouse nucleus accumbens

The nucleus accumbens (NAc) plays an important role in regulating multiple behaviors, and its dysfunction has been linked to many neural disorders. However, the molecular, cellular and anatomic heterogeneity underlying its functional diversity remains incompletely understood. In this study, we generated a cell census of the mouse NAc using single-cell RNA sequencing and multiplexed error-robust fluorescence in situ hybridization, revealing a high level of cell heterogeneity in this brain region. Here we show that the transcriptional and spatial diversity of neuron subtypes underlie the NAc's anatomic and functional heterogeneity. These findings explain how the seemingly simple neuronal composition of the NAc achieves its highly heterogenous structure and diverse functions. Collectively, our study generates a spatially resolved cell taxonomy for understanding the structure and function of the NAc, which demonstrates the importance of combining molecular and spatial information in revealing the fundamental features of the nervous system