A comprehensive analysis of autocorrelation and bias in home range estimation

Home range estimation is routine practice in ecological research. While advances in animal tracking technology have increased our capacity to collect data to support home range analysis, these same advances have also resulted in increasingly autocorrelated data. Consequently, the question of which home range estimator to use on modern, highly autocorrelated tracking data remains open. This question is particularly relevant given that most estimators assume independently sampled data. Here, we provide a comprehensive evaluation of the effects of autocorrelation on home range estimation. We base our study on an extensive data set of GPS locations from 369 individuals representing 27 species distributed across five continents. We first assemble a broad array of home range estimators, including Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) with four bandwidth optimizers (Gaussian reference function, autocorrelated-Gaussian reference function [AKDE], Silverman´s rule of thumb, and least squares cross-validation), Minimum Convex Polygon, and Local Convex Hull methods. Notably, all of these estimators except AKDE assume independent and identically distributed (IID) data. We then employ half-sample cross-validation to objectively quantify estimator performance, and the recently introduced effective sample size for home range area estimation ((Formula presented.)) to quantify the information content of each data set. We found that AKDE 95% area estimates were larger than conventional IID-based estimates by a mean factor of 2. The median number of cross-validated locations included in the hold-out sets by AKDE 95% (or 50%) estimates was 95.3% (or 50.1%), confirming the larger AKDE ranges were appropriately selective at the specified quantile. Conversely, conventional estimates exhibited negative bias that increased with decreasing (Formula presented.). To contextualize our empirical results, we performed a detailed simulation study to tease apart how sampling frequency, sampling duration, and the focal animal´s movement conspire to affect range estimates. Paralleling our empirical results, the simulation study demonstrated that AKDE was generally more accurate than conventional methods, particularly for small (Formula presented.). While 72% of the 369 empirical data sets had >1,000 total observations, only 4% had an (Formula presented.) >1,000, where 30% had an (Formula presented.) <30. In this frequently encountered scenario of small (Formula presented.), AKDE was the only estimator capable of producing an accurate home range estimate on autocorrelated data.Fil: Noonan, Michael J.. National Zoological Park; Estados Unidos. University of Maryland; Estados UnidosFil: Tucker, Marlee A.. Senckenberg Gesellschaft Für Naturforschung; . Goethe Universitat Frankfurt; AlemaniaFil: Fleming, Christen H.. University of Maryland; Estados Unidos. National Zoological Park; Estados UnidosFil: Akre, Thomas S.. National Zoological Park; Estados UnidosFil: Alberts, Susan C.. University of Duke; Estados UnidosFil: Ali, Abdullahi H.. Hirola Conservation Programme. Garissa; KeniaFil: Altmann, Jeanne. University of Princeton; Estados UnidosFil: Antunes, Pamela Castro. Universidade Federal do Mato Grosso do Sul; BrasilFil: Belant, Jerrold L.. State University of New York; Estados UnidosFil: Beyer, Dean. Universitat Phillips; AlemaniaFil: Blaum, Niels. Universitat Potsdam; AlemaniaFil: Böhning Gaese, Katrin. Senckenberg Gesellschaft Für Naturforschung; Alemania. Goethe Universitat Frankfurt; AlemaniaFil: Cullen Jr., Laury. Instituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas; BrasilFil: de Paula, Rogerio Cunha. National Research Center For Carnivores Conservation; BrasilFil: Dekker, Jasja. Jasja Dekker Dierecologie; Países BajosFil: Drescher Lehman, Jonathan. George Mason University; Estados Unidos. National Zoological Park; Estados UnidosFil: Farwig, Nina. Michigan State University; Estados UnidosFil: Fichtel, Claudia. German Primate Center; AlemaniaFil: Fischer, Christina. Universitat Technical Zu Munich; AlemaniaFil: Ford, Adam T.. University of British Columbia; CanadáFil: Goheen, Jacob R.. University of Wyoming; Estados UnidosFil: Janssen, René. Bionet Natuuronderzoek; Países BajosFil: Jeltsch, Florian. Universitat Potsdam; AlemaniaFil: Kauffman, Matthew. University Of Wyoming; Estados UnidosFil: Kappeler, Peter M.. German Primate Center; AlemaniaFil: Koch, Flávia. German Primate Center; AlemaniaFil: LaPoint, Scott. Max Planck Institute für Ornithologie; Alemania. Columbia University; Estados UnidosFil: Markham, A. Catherine. Stony Brook University; Estados UnidosFil: Medici, Emilia Patricia. Instituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas (IPE) ; BrasilFil: Morato, Ronaldo G.. Institute For Conservation of The Neotropical Carnivores; Brasil. National Research Center For Carnivores Conservation; BrasilFil: Nathan, Ran. The Hebrew University of Jerusalem; IsraelFil: Oliveira Santos, Luiz Gustavo R.. Universidade Federal do Mato Grosso do Sul; BrasilFil: Olson, Kirk A.. Wildlife Conservation Society; Estados Unidos. National Zoological Park; Estados UnidosFil: Patterson, Bruce. Field Museum of National History; Estados UnidosFil: Paviolo, Agustin Javier. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Nordeste. Instituto de Biología Subtropical. Instituto de Biología Subtropical - Nodo Puerto Iguazú | Universidad Nacional de Misiones. Instituto de Biología Subtropical. Instituto de Biología Subtropical - Nodo Puerto Iguazú; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Nordeste; ArgentinaFil: Ramalho, Emiliano Esterci. Institute For Conservation of The Neotropical Carnivores; Brasil. Instituto de Desenvolvimento Sustentavel Mamirauá; BrasilFil: Rösner, Sascha. Michigan State University; Estados UnidosFil: Schabo, Dana G.. Michigan State University; Estados UnidosFil: Selva, Nuria. Institute of Nature Conservation of The Polish Academy of Sciences; PoloniaFil: Sergiel, Agnieszka. Institute of Nature Conservation of The Polish Academy of Sciences; PoloniaFil: Xavier da Silva, Marina. Parque Nacional do Iguaçu; BrasilFil: Spiegel, Orr. Universitat Tel Aviv; IsraelFil: Thompson, Peter. University of Maryland; Estados UnidosFil: Ullmann, Wiebke. Universitat Potsdam; AlemaniaFil: Ziḝba, Filip. Tatra National Park; PoloniaFil: Zwijacz Kozica, Tomasz. Tatra National Park; PoloniaFil: Fagan, William F.. University of Maryland; Estados UnidosFil: Mueller, Thomas. Senckenberg Gesellschaft Für Naturforschung; . Goethe Universitat Frankfurt; AlemaniaFil: Calabrese, Justin M.. National Zoological Park; Estados Unidos. University of Maryland; Estados Unido

Pervasive gaps in Amazonian ecological research

Biodiversity loss is one of the main challenges of our time,1,2 and attempts to address it require a clear un derstanding of how ecological communities respond to environmental change across time and space.3,4 While the increasing availability of global databases on ecological communities has advanced our knowledge of biodiversity sensitivity to environmental changes,5–7 vast areas of the tropics remain understudied.8–11 In the American tropics, Amazonia stands out as the world’s most diverse rainforest and the primary source of Neotropical biodiversity,12 but it remains among the least known forests in America and is often underrepre sented in biodiversity databases.13–15 To worsen this situation, human-induced modifications16,17 may elim inate pieces of the Amazon’s biodiversity puzzle before we can use them to understand how ecological com munities are responding. To increase generalization and applicability of biodiversity knowledge,18,19 it is thus crucial to reduce biases in ecological research, particularly in regions projected to face the most pronounced environmental changes. We integrate ecological community metadata of 7,694 sampling sites for multiple or ganism groups in a machine learning model framework to map the research probability across the Brazilian Amazonia, while identifying the region’s vulnerability to environmental change. 15%–18% of the most ne glected areas in ecological research are expected to experience severe climate or land use changes by 2050. This means that unless we take immediate action, we will not be able to establish their current status, much less monitor how it is changing and what is being lostinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Optimasi Portofolio Resiko Menggunakan Model Markowitz MVO Dikaitkan dengan Keterbatasan Manusia dalam Memprediksi Masa Depan dalam Perspektif Al-Qur`an

Risk portfolio on modern finance has become increasingly technical, requiring the use of sophisticated mathematical tools in both research and practice. Since companies cannot insure themselves completely against risk, as human incompetence in predicting the future precisely that written in Al-Quran surah Luqman verse 34, they have to manage it to yield an optimal portfolio. The objective here is to minimize the variance among all portfolios, or alternatively, to maximize expected return among all portfolios that has at least a certain expected return. Furthermore, this study focuses on optimizing risk portfolio so called Markowitz MVO (Mean-Variance Optimization). Some theoretical frameworks for analysis are arithmetic mean, geometric mean, variance, covariance, linear programming, and quadratic programming. Moreover, finding a minimum variance portfolio produces a convex quadratic programming, that is minimizing the objective function ðð¥with constraintsð ð 𥠥 ðandð´ð¥ = ð. The outcome of this research is the solution of optimal risk portofolio in some investments that could be finished smoothly using MATLAB R2007b software together with its graphic analysis

Differential cross section measurements for the production of a W boson in association with jets in proton–proton collisions at √s = 7 TeV

Measurements are reported of differential cross sections for the production of a W boson, which decays into a muon and a neutrino, in association with jets, as a function of several variables, including the transverse momenta (pT) and pseudorapidities of the four leading jets, the scalar sum of jet transverse momenta (HT), and the difference in azimuthal angle between the directions of each jet and the muon. The data sample of pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV was collected with the CMS detector at the LHC and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 5.0 fb[superscript −1]. The measured cross sections are compared to predictions from Monte Carlo generators, MadGraph + pythia and sherpa, and to next-to-leading-order calculations from BlackHat + sherpa. The differential cross sections are found to be in agreement with the predictions, apart from the pT distributions of the leading jets at high pT values, the distributions of the HT at high-HT and low jet multiplicity, and the distribution of the difference in azimuthal angle between the leading jet and the muon at low values.United States. Dept. of EnergyNational Science Foundation (U.S.)Alfred P. Sloan Foundatio

Penilaian Kinerja Keuangan Koperasi di Kabupaten Pelalawan

This paper describe development and financial performance of cooperative in District Pelalawan among 2007 - 2008. Studies on primary and secondary cooperative in 12 sub-districts. Method in this stady use performance measuring of productivity, efficiency, growth, liquidity, and solvability of cooperative. Productivity of cooperative in Pelalawan was highly but efficiency still low. Profit and income were highly, even liquidity of cooperative very high, and solvability was good

Juxtaposing BTE and ATE – on the role of the European insurance industry in funding civil litigation

One of the ways in which legal services are financed, and indeed shaped, is through private insurance arrangement. Two contrasting types of legal expenses insurance contracts (LEI) seem to dominate in Europe: before the event (BTE) and after the event (ATE) legal expenses insurance. Notwithstanding institutional differences between different legal systems, BTE and ATE insurance arrangements may be instrumental if government policy is geared towards strengthening a market-oriented system of financing access to justice for individuals and business. At the same time, emphasizing the role of a private industry as a keeper of the gates to justice raises issues of accountability and transparency, not readily reconcilable with demands of competition. Moreover, multiple actors (clients, lawyers, courts, insurers) are involved, causing behavioural dynamics which are not easily predicted or influenced. Against this background, this paper looks into BTE and ATE arrangements by analysing the particularities of BTE and ATE arrangements currently available in some European jurisdictions and by painting a picture of their respective markets and legal contexts. This allows for some reflection on the performance of BTE and ATE providers as both financiers and keepers. Two issues emerge from the analysis that are worthy of some further reflection. Firstly, there is the problematic long-term sustainability of some ATE products. Secondly, the challenges faced by policymakers that would like to nudge consumers into voluntarily taking out BTE LEI

Search for stop and higgsino production using diphoton Higgs boson decays

Results are presented of a search for a "natural" supersymmetry scenario with gauge mediated symmetry breaking. It is assumed that only the supersymmetric partners of the top-quark (stop) and the Higgs boson (higgsino) are accessible. Events are examined in which there are two photons forming a Higgs boson candidate, and at least two b-quark jets. In 19.7 inverse femtobarns of proton-proton collision data at sqrt(s) = 8 TeV, recorded in the CMS experiment, no evidence of a signal is found and lower limits at the 95% confidence level are set, excluding the stop mass below 360 to 410 GeV, depending on the higgsino mass

Search for heavy resonances decaying to two Higgs bosons in final states containing four b quarks

A search is presented for narrow heavy resonances X decaying into pairs of Higgs bosons (H) in proton-proton collisions collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC at root s = 8 TeV. The data correspond to an integrated luminosity of 19.7 fb(-1). The search considers HH resonances with masses between 1 and 3 TeV, having final states of two b quark pairs. Each Higgs boson is produced with large momentum, and the hadronization products of the pair of b quarks can usually be reconstructed as single large jets. The background from multijet and t (t) over bar events is significantly reduced by applying requirements related to the flavor of the jet, its mass, and its substructure. The signal would be identified as a peak on top of the dijet invariant mass spectrum of the remaining background events. No evidence is observed for such a signal. Upper limits obtained at 95 confidence level for the product of the production cross section and branching fraction sigma(gg -> X) B(X -> HH -> b (b) over barb (b) over bar) range from 10 to 1.5 fb for the mass of X from 1.15 to 2.0 TeV, significantly extending previous searches. For a warped extra dimension theory with amass scale Lambda(R) = 1 TeV, the data exclude radion scalar masses between 1.15 and 1.55 TeV