Two-step adaptive management for choosing between two management actions

Adaptive management is widely advocated to improve environmental management. Derivations of optimal strategies for adaptive management, however, tend to be case specific and time consuming. In contrast, managers might seek relatively simple guidance, such as insight into when a new potential management action should be considered, and how much effort should be expended on trialing such an action. We constructed a two-time-step scenario where a manager is choosing between two possible management actions. The manager has a total budget that can be split between a learning phase and an implementation phase. We use this scenario to investigate when and how much a manager should invest in learning about the management actions available. The optimal investment in learning can be understood intuitively by accounting for the expected value of sample information, the benefits that accrue during learning, the direct costs of learning, and the opportunity costs of learning. We find that the optimal proportion of the budget to spend on learning is characterized by several critical thresholds that mark a jump from spending a large proportion of the budget on learning to spending nothing. For example, as sampling variance increases, it is optimal to spend a larger proportion of the budget on learning, up to a point: if the sampling variance passes a critical threshold, it is no longer beneficial to invest in learning. Similar thresholds are observed as a function of the total budget and the difference in the expected performance of the two actions. We illustrate how this model can be applied using a case study of choosing between alternative rearing diets for hihi, an endangered New Zealand passerine. Although the model presented is a simplified scenario, we believe it is relevant to many management situations. Managers often have relatively short time horizons for management, and might be reluctant to consider further investment in learning and monitoring beyond collecting data from a single time period

The ENHANCES study--Enhancing Head and Neck Cancer patients' Experiences of Survivorship: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Background Few cancers pose greater challenges than head and neck (H&N) cancer. Residual effects following treatment include body image changes, pain, fatigue and difficulties with appetite, swallowing and speech. Depression is a common comorbidity. There is limited evidence about ways to assist patients to achieve optimal adjustment after completion of treatment. In this study, we aim to examine the effectiveness and feasibility of a model of survivorship care to improve the quality of life of patients who have completed treatment for H&N cancer. Methods This is a preliminary study in which 120 patients will be recruited. A prospective randomised controlled trial of the H&N Cancer Survivor Self-management Care Plan (HNCP) involving pre- and post-intervention assessments will be used. Consecutive patients who have completed a defined treatment protocol for H&N cancer will be recruited from two large cancer services and randomly allocated to one of three study arms: (1) usual care, (2) information in the form of a written resource or (3) the HNCP delivered by an oncology nurse who has participated in manual-based training and skill development in patient self-management support. The trained nurses will meet patients in a face-to-face interview lasting up to 60 minutes to develop an individualised HNCP, based on principles of chronic disease self-management. Participants will be assessed at baseline, 3 and 6 months. The primary outcome measure is quality of life. The secondary outcome measures include mood, self-efficacy and health-care utilisation. The feasibility of implementing this intervention in routine clinical care will be assessed through semistructured interviews with participating nurses, managers and administrators. Interviews with patients who received the HNCP will explore their perceptions of the HNCP, including factors that assisted them in achieving behavioural change. Discussion In this study, we aim to improve the quality of life of a patient population with unique needs by means of a tailored self-management care plan developed upon completion of treatment. Delivery of the intervention by trained oncology nurses is likely to be acceptable to patients and, if successful, will be a model of care that can be implemented for diverse patient populations

Building genomic infrastructure: Sequencing platinum-standard reference-quality genomes of all cetacean species.

International audienc

An international perspective on definitions and terminology used to describe serious reportable patient safety incidents: A systematic review

Objectives: Patients are unintentionally, yet frequently, harmed in situations that are deemed preventable. Incident reporting systems help prevent harm, yet there is considerable variability in how patient safety incidents are reported. This may lead to inconsistent or unnecessary patterns of incident reporting and failures to identify serious patient safety incidents. This systematic review aims to describe international approaches in relation to defining serious reportable patient safety incidents. Methods: Multiple electronic and gray literature databases were searched for articles published between 2009 and 2019. Empirical studies, reviews, national reports, and policies were included. A narrative synthesis was conducted because of study heterogeneity. Results: A total of 50 articles were included. There was wide variation in the terminology used to represent serious reportable patient safety incidents. Several countries defined a specific subset of incidents, which are considered sufficiently serious, yet preventable if appropriate safety measures are taken. Terms such as “never events,” “serious reportable events,” or “always review and report” were used. The following dimensions were identified to define a serious reportable patient safety incident: (1) incidents being largely preventable; (2) having the potential for significant learning; (3) causing serious harm or have the potential to cause serious harm; (4) being identifiable, measurable, and feasible for inclusion in an incident reporting system; and (5) running the risk of recurrence. Conclusions: Variations in terminology and reporting systems between countries might contribute to missed opportunities for learning. International standardized definitions and blame-free reporting systems would enable comparison and international learning to enhance patient safety

Genome-wide association study of offspring birth weight in 86 577 women identifies five novel loci and highlights maternal genetic effects that are independent of fetal genetics

Funding Information: Researchers were funded by investment from the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) and the European Social Fund (ESF) Convergence Programme for Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly [J.T.]; European Research Council (ERC) [grant: SZ-245 50371-GLUCOSEGENES-FP7-IDEAS-ERC to T.M.F., A.R.W.], [ERC Consolidator Grant, ERC-2014-CoG-648916 to V.W.V.J.], [P.R.N.]; University of Bergen, KG Jebsen and Helse Vest [P.R.N.]; Wellcome Trust Senior Investigator Awards [A.T.H. (WT098395), M.I.M. (WT098381)]; National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Senior Investigator Award (NF-SI-0611–10219); Sir Henry Dale Fellowship (Wellcome Trust and Royal Society grant: WT104150) [R.M.F., R.N.B.]; 4-year studentship (Grant Code: WT083431MF) [R.C.R]; the European Research Council under the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP/2007– 2013)/ERC Grant Agreement (grant number 669545; Develop Obese) [D.A.L.]; US National Institute of Health (grant: R01 DK10324) [D.A.L, C.L.R]; Wellcome Trust GWAS grant (WT088806) [D.A.L] and NIHR Senior Investigator Award (NF-SI-0611–10196) [D.A.L]; Wellcome Trust Institutional Strategic Support Award (WT097835MF) [M.A.T.]; The Diabetes Research and Wellness Foundation Non-Clinical Fellowship [J.T.]; Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Early Career Fellowship (APP1104818) [N.M.W.]; Daniel B. Burke Endowed Chair for Diabetes Research [S.F.A.G.]; UK Medical Research Council Unit grants MC_UU_12013_5 [R.C.R, L.P, S.R, C.L.R, D.M.E., D.A.L.] and MC_UU_12013_4 [D.M.E.]; Medical Research Council (grant: MR/M005070/1) [M.N.W., S.E.J.]; Australian Research Council Future Fellowship (FT130101709) [D.M.E] and (FT110100548) [S.E.M.]; NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre (BRC); Oak Foundation Fellowship and Novo Nordisk Foundation (12955) [B.F.]; FRQS research scholar and Clinical Scientist Award by the Canadian Diabetes Association and the Maud Menten Award from the Institute of Genetics– Canadian Institute of Health Research (CIHR) [MFH]; CIHR— Frederick Banting and Charles Best Canada Graduate Scholarships [C.A.]; FRQS [L.B.]; Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development (ZonMw–VIDI 016.136.361) [V.W.V.J.]; National Institute on Aging (R01AG29451) [J.M.M.]; 2010–2011 PRIN funds of the University of Ferrara—Holder: Prof. Guido Barbujani, Supervisor: Prof. Chiara Scapoli—and in part sponsored by the European Foundation for the Study of Diabetes (EFSD) Albert Renold Travel Fellowships for Young Scientists, ‘5 per mille’ contribution assigned to the University of Ferrara, income tax return year 2009 and the ENGAGE Exchange and Mobility Program for ENGAGE training funds, ENGAGE project, grant agreement HEALTH-F4–2007-201413 [L.M.]; ESRC (RES-060–23-0011) [C.L.R.]; National Institute of Health Research ([S.D., M.I.M.], Senior Investigator Award (NF-SI-0611–10196) [D.A.L]); Australian NHMRC Fellowships Scheme (619667) [G.W.M]. For study-specific funding, please see Supplementary Material. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health. Funding to pay the Open Access publication charges for this article was provided by the Charity Open Access Fund (COAF). Funding Information: We are extremely grateful to the participants and families who contributed to all of the studies and the teams of investigators involved in each one. These include interviewers, computer and laboratory technicians, clerical workers, research scientists, volunteers, managers, receptionists and nurses. This research has been conducted using the UK Biobank Resource (Application numbers 7036 and 12703). For additional study-specific acknowledgements, please see Supplementary Material. Conflict of Interest statement. D.A.L. has received support from Roche Diagnostics and Medtronic for biomarker research unrelated to the work presented here. Funding Researchers were funded by investment from the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) and the European Social Fund (ESF) Convergence Programme for Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly [J.T.]; European Research Council (ERC) [grant: SZ-245 50371-GLUCOSEGENES-FP7-IDEAS-ERC to T.M.F., A.R.W.], [ERC Consolidator Grant, ERC-2014-CoG-648916 to V.W.V.J.], [P.R.N.]; University of Bergen, KG Jebsen and Helse Vest [P.R.N.]; Wellcome Trust Senior Investigator Awards [A.T.H. (WT098395), M.I.M. (WT098381)]; National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Senior Investigator Award (NF-SI-0611-10219); Sir Henry Dale Fellowship (Wellcome Trust and Royal Society grant: WT104150) [R.M.F., R.N.B.]; 4-year studentship (Grant Code: WT083431MF) [R.C.R]; the European Research Council under the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP/2007-2013)/ERC Grant Agreement (grant number 669545; Develop Obese) [D.A.L.]; US National Institute of Health (grant: R01 DK10324) [D.A.L, C.L.R]; Wellcome Trust GWAS grant (WT088806) [D.A.L] and NIHR Senior Investigator Award (NF-SI-0611-10196) [D.A.L]; Wellcome Trust Institutional Strategic Support Award (WT097835MF) [M.A.T.]; The Diabetes Research and Wellness Foundation Non-Clinical Fellowship [J.T.]; Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Early Career Fellowship (APP1104818) [N.M.W.]; Daniel B. Burke Endowed Chair for Diabetes Research [S.F.A.G.]; UK Medical Research Council Unit grants MC_UU_12013_5 [R.C.R, L.P, S.R, C.L.R, D.M.E., D.A.L.] and MC_UU_12013_4 [D.M.E.]; Medical Research Council (grant: MR/M005070/1) [M.N.W., S.E.J.]; Australian Research Council Future Fellowship (FT130101709) [D.M.E] and (FT110100548) [S.E.M.]; NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre (BRC); Oak Foundation Fellowship and Novo Nordisk Foundation (12955) [B.F.]; FRQS research scholar and Clinical Scientist Award by the Canadian Diabetes Association and the Maud Menten Award from the Institute of Genetics-Canadian Institute of Health Research (CIHR) [MFH]; CIHR-Frederick Banting and Charles Best Canada Graduate Scholarships [C.A.]; FRQS [L.B.]; Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development (ZonMw-VIDI 016.136.361) [V.W.V.J.]; National Institute on Aging (R01AG29451) [J.M.M.]; 2010-2011 PRIN funds of the University of Ferrara-Holder: Prof. Guido Barbujani, Supervisor: Prof. Chiara Scapoli-and in part sponsored by the European Foundation for the Study of Diabetes (EFSD) Albert Renold Travel Fellowships for Young Scientists, '5 per mille' contribution assigned to the University of Ferrara, income tax return year 2009 and the ENGAGE Exchange and Mobility Program for ENGAGE training funds, ENGAGE project, grant agreement HEALTH-F4-2007-201413 [L.M.]; ESRC (RES-060-23-0011) [C.L.R.]; National Institute of Health Research ([S.D., M.I.M.], Senior Investigator Award (NFSI-0611-10196) [D.A.L]); Australian NHMRC Fellowships Scheme (619667) [G.W.M]. For study-specific funding, please see Supplementary Material. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health. Funding to pay the Open Access publication charges for this article was provided by the Charity Open Access Fund (COAF). Publisher Copyright: © The Author(s) 2018.Genome-wide association studies of birth weight have focused on fetal genetics, whereas relatively little is known about the role of maternal genetic variation. We aimed to identify maternal genetic variants associated with birth weight that could highlight potentially relevant maternal determinants of fetal growth. We meta-analysed data on up to 8.7 million SNPs in up to 86 577 women of European descent from the Early Growth Genetics (EGG) Consortium and the UK Biobank. We used structural equation modelling (SEM) and analyses of mother-child pairs to quantify the separate maternal and fetal genetic effects. Maternal SNPs at 10 loci (MTNR1B, HMGA2, SH2B3, KCNAB1, L3MBTL3, GCK, EBF1, TCF7L2, ACTL9, CYP3A7) were associated with offspring birth weight at P<5 x 10(-8). In SEM analyses, at least 7 of the 10 associations were consistent with effects of the maternal genotype acting via the intrauterine environment, rather than via effects of shared alleles with the fetus. Variants, or correlated proxies, at many of the loci had been previously associated with adult traits, including fasting glucose (MTNR1B, GCK and TCF7L2) and sex hormone levels (CYP3A7), and one (EBF1) with gestational duration. The identified associations indicate that genetic effects on maternal glucose, cytochrome P450 activity and gestational duration, and potentially on maternal blood pressure and immune function, are relevant for fetal growth. Further characterization of these associations in mechanistic and causal analyses will enhance understanding of the potentially modifiable maternal determinants of fetal growth, with the goal of reducing the morbidity and mortality associated with low and high birth weights.Peer reviewe

Genome-wide association study in 79,366 European-ancestry individuals informs the genetic architecture of 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels

Vitamin D is a steroid hormone precursor that is associated with a range of human traits and diseases. Previous GWAS of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations have identified four genome-wide significant loci (GC, NADSYN1/DHCR7, CYP2R1, CYP24A1). In this study, we expand the previous SUNLIGHT Consortium GWAS discovery sample size from 16,125 to 79,366 (all European descent). This larger GWAS yields two additional loci harboring genome-wide significant variants (P = 4.7x10(-9) at rs8018720 in SEC23A, and P = 1.9x10(-14) at rs10745742 in AMDHD1). The overall estimate of heritability of 25-hydroxyvitamin D serum concentrations attributable to GWAS common SNPs is 7.5%, with statistically significant loci explaining 38% of this total. Further investigation identifies signal enrichment in immune and hematopoietic tissues, and clustering with autoimmune diseases in cell-type-specific analysis. Larger studies are required to identify additional common SNPs, and to explore the role of rare or structural variants and gene-gene interactions in the heritability of circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels.Peer reviewe

Association of vitamin D status with arterial blood pressure and hypertension risk : a mendelian randomisation study

Peer reviewe

The Early Growth Genetics (EGG) and EArly Genetics and Lifecourse Epidemiology (EAGLE) consortia : design, results and future prospects

The impact of many unfavorable childhood traits or diseases, such as low birth weight and mental disorders, is not limited to childhood and adolescence, as they are also associated with poor outcomes in adulthood, such as cardiovascular disease. Insight into the genetic etiology of childhood and adolescent traits and disorders may therefore provide new perspectives, not only on how to improve wellbeing during childhood, but also how to prevent later adverse outcomes. To achieve the sample sizes required for genetic research, the Early Growth Genetics (EGG) and EArly Genetics and Lifecourse Epidemiology (EAGLE) consortia were established. The majority of the participating cohorts are longitudinal population-based samples, but other cohorts with data on early childhood phenotypes are also involved. Cohorts often have a broad focus and collect(ed) data on various somatic and psychiatric traits as well as environmental factors. Genetic variants have been successfully identified for multiple traits, for example, birth weight, atopic dermatitis, childhood BMI, allergic sensitization, and pubertal growth. Furthermore, the results have shown that genetic factors also partly underlie the association with adult traits. As sample sizes are still increasing, it is expected that future analyses will identify additional variants. This, in combination with the development of innovative statistical methods, will provide detailed insight on the mechanisms underlying the transition from childhood to adult disorders. Both consortia welcome new collaborations. Policies and contact details are available from the corresponding authors of this manuscript and/or the consortium websites.Peer reviewe

Maternal and fetal genetic effects on birth weight and their relevance to cardio-metabolic risk factors.

Birth weight variation is influenced by fetal and maternal genetic and non-genetic factors, and has been reproducibly associated with future cardio-metabolic health outcomes. In expanded genome-wide association analyses of own birth weight (n = 321,223) and offspring birth weight (n = 230,069 mothers), we identified 190 independent association signals (129 of which are novel). We used structural equation modeling to decompose the contributions of direct fetal and indirect maternal genetic effects, then applied Mendelian randomization to illuminate causal pathways. For example, both indirect maternal and direct fetal genetic effects drive the observational relationship between lower birth weight and higher later blood pressure: maternal blood pressure-raising alleles reduce offspring birth weight, but only direct fetal effects of these alleles, once inherited, increase later offspring blood pressure. Using maternal birth weight-lowering genotypes to proxy for an adverse intrauterine environment provided no evidence that it causally raises offspring blood pressure, indicating that the inverse birth weight-blood pressure association is attributable to genetic effects, and not to intrauterine programming.The Fenland Study is funded by the Medical Research Council (MC_U106179471) and Wellcome Trust