Microplastic in the environment: identification, occurrencand mitigation measures

Microplastic is an emerging pollutant causing trouble worldwide due to its extensive distribution and potential hazards to the ecological system. Some fundamental questions about micro-plastics, such as their presence, source, and possible hazards, remain unanswered. These issues develop because of a lack of systematic and comprehensive microplastic analysis. As a result, we thoroughly evaluated current knowledge on microplastics, including detection, characterization, occurrence, source, and potential harm. Microplastics are found in seawater, soil, wetlands, and air matrices worldwide based on findings. Visual classification, which can be enhanced by com-bining it with additional tools, is one of the most used methods for identifying microplastics. As soon as is practicable, microplastics analytical methods ought to be standardized. New techniques for analyzing nano-plastics are urgently needed in the meantime. Numerous studies have shown that microplastics’ impacts on people and soil are significantly influenced by their size, shape, and surface physicochemical characteristics. Finally, this study suggests areas for future research based on the knowledge gaps in the area of microplastics. © 2022 Desalination Publications. All rights reserved

Associations between Birth Weight and Adult Sleep Characteristics: A Cross-Sectional Analysis from the UAEHFS

Abnormal birth weight, particularly low birth weight (LBW), is known to have long-term adverse health consequences in adulthood, with disrupted sleep being suggested as a mediator or modifier of this link. We thus aimed to assess the associations between birth weight and self-reported adult sleep characteristics: sleep duration, difficulty waking up in the morning, daily nap frequency, sleep problems at night, snoring, daytime tiredness or sleepiness, and ever-stop breathing during sleep. This cross-sectional analysis used the United Arab Emirates Healthy Future Study data collected from February 2016 to March 2023 involving 2124 Emiratis aged 18–61 years. We performed a Poisson regression under unadjusted and age-sex-and-BMI-adjusted models to obtain the risk ratio and its 95% confidence interval for our analysis of the association between birth weight and each adult sleep characteristics, compared to individuals with normal birth weight (≥2.5 kg). Those with LBW had significantly a 17% increased risk of difficulty waking up in the morning, compared to those with normal birth weight. In addition, females with LBW history were also at an increased risk of reporting difficulty waking up in the morning. Studies with objective sleep assessments that include measurements of more confounding factors are recommended to confirm these risks

Patterns of tobacco use in the United Arab Emirates healthy future (UAEHFS) pilot study

© 2018 Al-Houqani et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Introduction Self-reported tobacco use in the United Arab Emirates is among the highest in the region. Use of tobacco products other than cigarettes is widespread, but little is known about specific behavior use patterns. There have been no studies that have biochemically verified smoking status. Methods The UAE Healthy Future Study (UAEHFS) seeks to understand the causes of non-communicable diseases through a 20,000-person cohort study. During the study pilot, 517 Emirati nationals were recruited to complete a questionnaire, provide clinical measurements and biological samples. Complete smoking data were available for 428 participants. Validation of smoking status via cotinine testing was conducted based on complete questionnaire data and matching urine samples for 399 participants, using a cut-off of 200ng/ml to indicate active smoking status. Results Self-reported tobacco use was 36% among men and 3% among women in the sample. However, biochemical verification of smoking status revealed that 42% men and 9% of women were positive for cotinine indicating possible recent tobacco use. Dual and poly-use of tobacco products was fairly common with 32% and 6% of the sample reporting respectively. Conclusions This is the first study in the region to biochemically verify tobacco use self-report data. Tobacco use in this study population was found to be higher than previously thought, especially among women. Misclassification of smoking status was more common than expected. Poly-tobacco use was also very common. Additional studies are needed to understand tobacco use behaviors and the extent to which people may be exposed to passive tobacco smoke. Implications This study is the first in the region to biochemically verify self-reported smoking status

Association between pediatric asthma and adult polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS): a cross-sectional analysis of the UAE healthy future Study (UAEHFS)

Asthma and polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS) are linked in several possible ways. To date, there has been no study evaluating whether pediatric asthma is an independent risk factor for adult PCOS. Our study aimed to examine the association between pediatric asthma (diagnosed at 0-19 years) and adult PCOS (diagnosed at ≥20 years). We further assessed whether the aforementioned association differed in two phenotypes of adult PCOS which were diagnosed at 20-25 years (young adult PCOS), and at \u3e25 years (older adult PCOS). We also evaluated whether the age of asthma diagnosis (0-10 vs 11-19 years) modified the association between pediatric asthma and adult PCOS. This is a retrospective cross-sectional analysis using the United Arab Emirates Healthy Future Study (UAEHFS) collected from February 2016 to April 2022 involving 1334 Emirati females aged 18-49 years. We fitted a Poisson regression model to estimate the risk ratio (RR) and its 95% confidence interval (95% CI) to assess the association between pediatric asthma and adult PCOS adjusting for age, urbanicity at birth, and parental smoking at birth. After adjusting for confounding factors and comparing to non-asthmatic counterparts, we found that females with pediatric asthma had a statistically significant association with adult PCOS diagnosed at ≥20 years (RR=1.56, 95% CI: 1.02-2.41), with a stronger magnitude of the association found in the older adult PCOS phenotype diagnosed at \u3e25 years (RR=2.06, 95% CI: 1.16-3.65). Further, we also found females reported thinner childhood body size had a two-fold to three-fold increased risk of adult PCOS diagnosed at ≥20 years in main analysis and stratified analyses by age of asthma and PCOS diagnoses (RR=2.06, 95% CI: 1.08-3.93 in main analysis; RR=2.74, 95% CI: 1.22-6.15 among those diagnosed with PCOS \u3e 25 years; and RR=3.50, 95% CI: 1.38-8.43 among those diagnosed with asthma at 11-19 years). Pediatric asthma was found to be an independent risk factor for adult PCOS. More targeted surveillance for those at risk of adult PCOS among pediatric asthmatics may prevent or delay PCOS in this at-risk group. Future studies with robust longitudinal designs aimed to elucidate the exact mechanism between pediatric asthma and PCOS are warranted

High prevalence of cardiometabolic risk factors amongst young adults in the United Arab Emirates: the UAE Healthy Future Study

BackgroundCardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the world. In the United Arab Emirates (UAE), it accounts for 40% of mortality. CVD is caused by multiple cardiometabolic risk factors (CRFs) including obesity, dysglycemia, dyslipidemia, hypertension and central obesity. However, there are limited studies focusing on the CVD risk burden among young Emirati adults. This study investigates the burden of CRFs in a sample of young Emiratis, and estimates the distribution in relation to sociodemographic and behavioral determinants.MethodsData was used from the baseline data of the UAE Healthy Future Study volunteers. The study participants were aged 18 to 40 years. The study analysis was based on self-reported questionnaires, anthropometric and blood pressure measurements, as well as blood analysis.ResultsA total of 5167 participants were included in the analysis; 62% were males and the mean age of the sample was 25.7 years. The age-adjusted prevalence was 26.5% for obesity, 11.7% for dysglycemia, 62.7% for dyslipidemia, 22.4% for hypertension and 22.5% for central obesity. The CRFs were distributed differently when compared within social and behavioral groups. For example, obesity, dyslipidemia and central obesity in men were found higher among smokers than non-smokers (p \u3c 0.05). And among women with lower education, all CRFs were reported significantly higher than those with higher education, except for hypertension. Most CRFs were significantly higher among men and women with positive family history of common non-communicable diseases.ConclusionsCRFs are highly prevalent in the young Emirati adults of the UAE Healthy Future Study. The difference in CRF distribution among social and behavioral groups can be taken into account to target group-specific prevention measures

The interrelationship and accumulation of cardiometabolic risk factors amongst young adults in the United Arab Emirates: The UAE Healthy Future Study.

INTRODUCTION: Similar to other non-communicable diseases (NCDs), people who develop cardiovascular disease (CVD) typically have more than one risk factor. The clustering of cardiovascular risk factors begins in youth, early adulthood, and middle age. The presence of multiple risk factors simultaneously has been shown to increase the risk for atherosclerosis development in young and middle-aged adults and risk of CVD in middle age. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to address the interrelationship of CVD risk factors and their accumulation in a large sample of young adults in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). METHODS: Baseline data was drawn from the UAE Healthy Future Study (UAEHFS), a volunteer-based multicenter study that recruits Emirati nationals. Data of participants aged 18 to 40 years was used for cross-sectional analysis. Demographic and health information was collected through self-reported questionnaires. Anthropometric data and blood pressure were measured, and blood samples were collected. RESULTS: A total of 5126 participants were included in the analysis. Comorbidity analyses showed that dyslipidemia and obesity co-existed with other cardiometabolic risk factors (CRFs) more than 70% and 50% of the time, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression analysis of the risk factors with age and gender showed that all risk factors were highly associated with each other. The strongest relationship was found with obesity; it was associated with four-fold increase in the odds of having central obesity [adjusted OR 4.70 (95% CI (4.04-5.46)], and almost three-fold increase odds of having abnormal glycemic status [AOR 2.98 (95% (CI 2.49-3.55))], hypertension (AOR 3.03 (95% CI (2.61-3.52))] and dyslipidemia [AOR 2.71 (95% CI (2.32-3.15)]. Forty percent of the population accumulated more than 2 risk factors, and the burden increased with age. CONCLUSION: In this young population, cardiometabolic risk factors are highly prevalent and are associated with each other, therefore creating a heavy burden of risk factors. This forecasts an increase in the burden of CVD in the UAE. The robust longitudinal design of the UAEHFS will enable researchers to understand how risk factors cluster before disease develops. This knowledge will offer a novel approach to design group-specific preventive measures for CVD development

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator.Background Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. Methods The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODErn), to generate cause fractions and cause specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. Findings At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NC Ds) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73.4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72.5-74.1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 186% (17.9-19.6), and injuries 8.0% (7.7-8.2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22.7% (21.5-23.9), representing an additional 7.61 million (7. 20-8.01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7.9% (7.08.8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 222% (20.0-24.0) and the death rate by 31.8% (30.1-33.3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2.3% (0-5-4-0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13.7% (12.2-15.1) to 57.9 deaths (55.9-59.2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118.0% (88.8-148.6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36.4% (32.2-40.6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33.6% (31.2-36.1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respirator}, infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990 neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. Interpretation Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2\ub75th percentile and 100 as the 97\ub75th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59\ub74 (IQR 35\ub74–67\ub73), ranging from a low of 11\ub76 (95% uncertainty interval 9\ub76–14\ub70) to a high of 84\ub79 (83\ub71–86\ub77). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of 'leaving no one behind', it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. METHODS: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator