Occurrence Patterns of Afrotropical Ticks (Acari: Ixodidae) in the Climate Space Are Not Correlated with Their Taxonomic Relationships

Foci of tick species occur at large spatial scales. They are intrinsically difficult to detect because the effect of geographical factors affecting conceptual influence of climate gradients. Here we use a large dataset of occurrences of ticks in the Afrotropical region to outline the main associations of those tick species with the climate space. Using a principal components reduction of monthly temperature and rainfall values over the Afrotropical region, we describe and compare the climate spaces of ticks in a gridded climate space. The dendrogram of distances among taxa according to occurrences in the climate niche is used to draw functional groups, or clusters of species with similar occurrences in the climate space, as different from morphologically derived (taxonomical) groups. We aim to further define the drivers of species richness and endemism at such a grid as well as niche similarities (climate space overlap) among species. Groups of species, as defined from morphological traits alone, are uncorrelated with functional clusters. Taxonomically related species occur separately in the climate gradients. Species belonging to the same functional group share more niche among them than with species in other functional groups. However, niche equivalency is also low for species within the same taxonomic cluster. Thus, taxa evolving from the same lineage tend to maximize the occupancy of the climate space and avoid overlaps with other species of the same taxonomic group. Richness values are drawn across the gradient of seasonal variation of temperature, higher values observed in a portion of the climate space with low thermal seasonality. Richness and endemism values are weakly correlated with mean values of temperature and rainfall. The most parsimonious explanation for the different taxonomic groups that exhibit common patterns of climate space subdivision is that they have a shared biogeographic history acting over a group of ancestrally co-distributed organisms

Ecological approaches in veterinary epidemiology: mapping the risk of bat-borne rabies using vegetation indices and night-time light satellite imagery

Rabies remains a disease of significant public health concern. In the Americas, bats are an important source of rabies for pets, livestock, and humans. For effective rabies control and prevention, identifying potential areas for disease occurrence is critical to guide future research, inform public health policies, and design interventions. To anticipate zoonotic infectious diseases distribution at coarse scale, veterinary epidemiology needs to advance via exploring current geographic ecology tools and data using a biological approach. We analyzed bat-borne rabies reports in Chile from 2002 to 2012 to establish associations between rabies occurrence and environmental factors to generate an ecological niche model (ENM). The main rabies reservoir in Chile is the bat species Tadarida brasiliensis; we mapped 726 occurrences of rabies virus variant AgV4 in this bat species and integrated them with contemporary Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The correct prediction of areas with rabies in bats and the reliable anticipation of human rabies in our study illustrate the usefulness of ENM for mapping rabies and other zoonotic pathogens. Additionally, we highlight critical issues with selection of environmental variables, methods for model validation, and consideration of sampling bias. Indeed, models with weak or incorrect validation approaches should be interpreted with caution. In conclusion, ecological niche modeling applications for mapping disease risk at coarse geographic scales have a promising future, especially with refinement and enrichment of models with additional information, such as night-time light data, which increased substantially the model’s ability to anticipate human rabies

Systematic sensitivity analysis of the full economic impacts of sea level rise

The potential impacts of sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change have been widely studied in the literature. However, the uncertainty and robustness of these estimates has seldom been explored. Here we assess the model input uncertainty regarding the wide effects of SLR on marine navigation from a global economic perspective. We systematically assess the robustness of computable general equilibrium (CGE) estimates to model’s inputs uncertainty. Monte Carlo (MC) and Gaussian quadrature (GQ) methods are used for conducting a Systematic sensitivity analysis (SSA). This design allows to both explore the sensitivity of the CGE model and to compare the MC and GQ methods. Results show that, regardless whether triangular or piecewise linear Probability distributions are used, the welfare losses are higher in the MC SSA than in the original deterministic simulation. This indicates that the CGE economic literature has potentially underestimated the total economic effects of SLR, thus stressing the necessity of SSA when simulating the general equilibrium effects of SLR. The uncertainty decomposition shows that land losses have a smaller effect compared to capital and seaport productivity losses. Capital losses seem to affect the developed regions GDP more than the productivity losses do. Moreover, we show the uncertainty decomposition of the MC results and discuss the convergence of the MC results for a decomposed version of the CGE model. This paper aims to provide standardised guidelines for stochastic simulation in the context of CGE modelling that could be useful for researchers in similar settings

Phytoplankton across Tropical and Subtropical Regions of the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans

Postprint4,411

A Broad Assessment of Factors Determining Culicoides imicola Abundance: Modelling the Present and Forecasting Its Future in Climate Change Scenarios

Bluetongue (BT) is still present in Europe and the introduction of new serotypes from endemic areas in the African continent is a possible threat. Culicoides imicola remains one of the most relevant BT vectors in Spain and research on the environmental determinants driving its life cycle is key to preventing and controlling BT. Our aim was to improve our understanding of the biotic and abiotic determinants of C. imicola by modelling its present abundance, studying the spatial pattern of predicted abundance in relation to BT outbreaks, and investigating how the predicted current distribution and abundance patterns might change under future (2011–2040) scenarios of climate change according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. C. imicola abundance data from the bluetongue national surveillance programme were modelled with spatial, topoclimatic, host and soil factors. The influence of these factors was further assessed by variation partitioning procedures. The predicted abundance of C. imicola was also projected to a future period. Variation partitioning demonstrated that the pure effect of host and topoclimate factors explained a high percentage (>80%) of the variation. The pure effect of soil followed in importance in explaining the abundance of C. imicola. A close link was confirmed between C. imicola abundance and BT outbreaks. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to consider wild and domestic hosts in predictive modelling for an arthropod vector. The main findings regarding the near future show that there is no evidence to suggest that there will be an important increase in the distribution range of C. imicola; this contrasts with an expected increase in abundance in the areas where it is already present in mainland Spain. What may be expected regarding the future scenario for orbiviruses in mainland Spain, is that higher predicted C. imicola abundance may significantly change the rate of transmission of orbiviruses

Search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum in pp collisions at √ s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Results of a search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum are reported. The search uses 20.3 fb−1 of √ s = 8 TeV data collected in 2012 with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Events are required to have at least one jet with pT > 120 GeV and no leptons. Nine signal regions are considered with increasing missing transverse momentum requirements between Emiss T > 150 GeV and Emiss T > 700 GeV. Good agreement is observed between the number of events in data and Standard Model expectations. The results are translated into exclusion limits on models with either large extra spatial dimensions, pair production of weakly interacting dark matter candidates, or production of very light gravitinos in a gauge-mediated supersymmetric model. In addition, limits on the production of an invisibly decaying Higgs-like boson leading to similar topologies in the final state are presente

Exploratory 7-Tesla magnetic resonance spectroscopy in Huntington’s disease provides in vivo evidence for impaired energy metabolism

Huntington’s disease (HD) is a neurodegenerative genetic disorder that affects the brain. Atrophy of deep grey matter structures has been reported and it is likely that underlying pathologic processes occur before, or in concurrence with, volumetric changes. Measurement of metabolite concentrations in these brain structures has the potential to provide insight into pathological processes. We aim to gain understanding of metabolite changes with respect to the disease stage and pathophysiological changes. We studied five brain regions using magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) using a 7-Tesla MRI scanner. Localized proton spectra were acquired to obtain six metabolite concentrations. MRS was performed in the caudate nucleus, putamen, thalamus, hypothalamus, and frontal lobe in 44 control subjects, premanifest gene carriers and manifest HD. In the caudate nucleus, HD patients display lower NAA (p = 0.009) and lower creatine concentration (p = 0.001) as compared to controls. In the putamen, manifest HD patients show lower NAA (p = 0.024), lower creatine concentration (p = 0.027), and lower glutamate (p = 0.013). Although absolute values of NAA, creatine, and glutamate were lower, no significant differences to controls were found in the premanifest gene carriers. The lower concentrations of NAA and creatine in the caudate nucleus and putamen of early manifest HD suggest deficits in neuronal integrity and energy metabolism. The changes in glutamate could support the excitotoxicity theory. These findings not only give insight into neuropathological changes in HD but also indicate that MRS can possibly be applied in future clinical trails to evaluate medication targeted at specific metabolic processes

Identifying Where REDD+ Financially Out Competes Oil Palm in Floodplain Landscapes Using a Fine-Scale Approach

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) aims to avoid forest conversion to alternative land-uses through financial incentives. Oil-palm has high opportunity costs, which according to current literature questions the financial competitiveness of REDD+ in tropical lowlands. To understand this more, we undertook regional finescale and coarse-scale analyses (through carbon mapping and economic modelling) to assess the financial viability of REDD+ in safeguarding unprotected forest (30,173 ha) in the Lower Kinabatangan floodplain in Malaysian Borneo. Results estimate 4.7 million metric tons of carbon (MgC) in unprotected forest, with 64% allocated for oil-palm cultivations. Through fine-scale mapping and carbon accounting, we demonstrated that REDD+ can outcompete oil-palm in regions with low suitability, with low carbon prices and low carbon stock. In areas with medium oil-palm suitability, REDD+ could outcompete oil palm in areas with: very high carbon and lower carbon price; medium carbon price and average carbon stock; or, low carbon stock and high carbon price. Areas with high oil palm suitability, REDD + could only outcompete with higher carbon price and higher carbon stock. In the coarse-scale model, oil-palm outcompeted REDD+ in all cases. For the fine-scale models at the landscape level, low carbon offset prices (US $3 MgCO2e) would enable REDD+ to outcompete oil-palm in 55$27 million to secure these areas for 25 years. Higher carbon offset price (US $30 MgCO2e) would increase the competitiveness of REDD+ within the landscape but would still only capture between 69$380–416 million in carbon financing. REDD+ has been identified as a strategy to mitigate climate change by many countries (including Malaysia). Although REDD+ in certain scenarios cannot outcompete oil palm, this research contributes to the global REDD+ debate by: highlighting REDD+ competitiveness in tropical floodplain landscapes; and, providing a robust approach for identifying and targeting limited REDD+ funds

Dark Energy Survey Year 1 Results: Tomographic cross-correlations between Dark Energy Survey galaxies and CMB lensing from South Pole Telescope+Planck

We measure the cross-correlation between redMaGiC galaxies selected from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) year 1 data and gravitational lensing of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) reconstructed from South Pole Telescope (SPT) and Planck data over 1289 deg2. When combining measurements across multiple galaxy redshift bins spanning the redshift range of 0.1