Optimization in Genetically Evolved Fuzzy Cognitive Maps Supporting Decision-Making: The Limit Cycle Case

This paper presents the dynamic behavior of a hybrid system comprising Fuzzy Cognitive Maps and Genetic Algorithms, and focuses on the behavior observed when the system reaches equilibrium at fixed points or limit cycle. More specifically, the present works examines the theoretical background of the equilibrium and limit cycle behaviors and proposes a defuzzification method to handle the latter case. The proposed method calculates the mean value of a limit cycle and uses this value in the defuzzification process along with a confidence rate, which indicates the reliability of the results

Optimization in Genetically Evolved Fuzzy Cognitive Maps Supporting Decision-Making: The Limit Cycle Case

This paper presents the dynamic behavior of a hybrid system comprising Fuzzy Cognitive Maps and Genetic Algorithms, and focuses on the behavior observed when the system reaches equilibrium at fixed points or limit cycle. More specifically, the present works examines the theoretical background of the equilibrium and limit cycle behaviors and proposes a defuzzification method to handle the latter case. The proposed method calculates the mean value of a limit cycle and uses this value in the defuzzification process along with a confidence rate, which indicates the reliability of the results

Origin and invasion of the emerging infectious pathogen Sphaerothecum destruens

Non-native species are often linked with the introduction of novel pathogens with detrimental effects to native biodiversity. Since the first discovery of Sphaerothecum destruens as a fish pathogen in the UK, it has been identified as a potential threat to European fish biodiversity. Despite this parasite’s emergence and associated disease risk there is still a poor understanding of its origin in Europe. Here, we provide the first evidence supporting the hypothesis that S. destruens has been accidentally introduced to Europe from China along with its reservoir host Pseudorasbora parva via the aquaculture trade. This is the first study to confirm the presence of S. destruens in China and has expanded the confirmed range of S. destruens to more locations in Europe. The demographic analysis of S. destruens and its host P. parva in their native and invasive range further supported the close association of both species. The work has direct significance and management implications for S. destruens in Europe as a non-native parasite

Evidence of threat to European economy and biodiversity following the introduction of an alien pathogen on the fungal–animal boundary

Recent years have seen a global and rapid resurgence of fungal diseases with direct impact on biodiversity and local extinctions of amphibian, coral, or bat populations. Despite similar evidence of population extinction in European fish populations and the associated risk of food aquaculture due to the emerging rosette agent Sphaerothecum destruens, an emerging infectious eukaryotic intracellular pathogen on the fungal–animal boundary, our understanding of current threats remained limited. Long-term monitoring of population decline for the 8-year post-introduction of the fungal pathogen was coupled with seasonal molecular analyses of the 18S rDNA and histological work of native fish species organs. A phylogenetic relationship between the existing EU and US strains using the ribosomal internal transcribed spacer sequences was also carried out. Here, we provide evidence that this emerging parasite has now been introduced via Pseudorasbora parva to sea bass farms, an industry that represents over 400 M€ annually in a Mediterranean region that is already economically vulnerable. We also provide for the first time evidence linking S. destruens to disease and severe declines in International Union for Conservation of Nature threatened European endemic freshwater fishes (i.e. 80% to 90 % mortalities). Our findings are thus of major economic and conservation importance

Epidemiology, practice of ventilation and outcome for patients at increased risk of postoperative pulmonary complications

BACKGROUND Limited information exists about the epidemiology and outcome of surgical patients at increased risk of postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs), and how intraoperative ventilation was managed in these patients. OBJECTIVES To determine the incidence of surgical patients at increased risk of PPCs, and to compare the intraoperative ventilation management and postoperative outcomes with patients at low risk of PPCs. DESIGN This was a prospective international 1-week observational study using the ‘Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia risk score’ (ARISCAT score) for PPC for risk stratification. PATIENTS AND SETTING Adult patients requiring intraoperative ventilation during general anaesthesia for surgery in 146 hospitals across 29 countries. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES The primary outcome was the incidence of patients at increased risk of PPCs based on the ARISCAT score. Secondary outcomes included intraoperative ventilatory management and clinical outcomes. RESULTS A total of 9864 patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The incidence of patients at increased risk was 28.4%. The most frequently chosen tidal volume (VT) size was 500 ml, or 7 to 9 ml kg1 predicted body weight, slightly lower in patients at increased risk of PPCs. Levels of positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) were slightly higher in patients at increased risk of PPCs, with 14.3% receiving more than 5 cmH2O PEEP compared with 7.6% in patients at low risk of PPCs (P < 0.001). Patients with a predicted preoperative increased risk of PPCs developed PPCs more frequently: 19 versus 7%, relative risk (RR) 3.16 (95% confidence interval 2.76 to 3.61), P < 0.001) and had longer hospital stays. The only ventilatory factor associated with the occurrence of PPCs was the peak pressure. CONCLUSION The incidence of patients with a predicted increased risk of PPCs is high. A large proportion of patients receive high VT and low PEEP levels. PPCs occur frequently in patients at increased risk, with worse clinical outcome

Epidemiology, practice of ventilation and outcome for patients at increased risk of postoperative pulmonary complications: LAS VEGAS - An observational study in 29 countries

BACKGROUND Limited information exists about the epidemiology and outcome of surgical patients at increased risk of postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs), and how intraoperative ventilation was managed in these patients. OBJECTIVES To determine the incidence of surgical patients at increased risk of PPCs, and to compare the intraoperative ventilation management and postoperative outcomes with patients at low risk of PPCs. DESIGN This was a prospective international 1-week observational study using the ‘Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia risk score’ (ARISCAT score) for PPC for risk stratification. PATIENTS AND SETTING Adult patients requiring intraoperative ventilation during general anaesthesia for surgery in 146 hospitals across 29 countries. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES The primary outcome was the incidence of patients at increased risk of PPCs based on the ARISCAT score. Secondary outcomes included intraoperative ventilatory management and clinical outcomes. RESULTS A total of 9864 patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The incidence of patients at increased risk was 28.4%. The most frequently chosen tidal volume (V T) size was 500 ml, or 7 to 9 ml kg−1 predicted body weight, slightly lower in patients at increased risk of PPCs. Levels of positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) were slightly higher in patients at increased risk of PPCs, with 14.3% receiving more than 5 cmH2O PEEP compared with 7.6% in patients at low risk of PPCs (P ˂ 0.001). Patients with a predicted preoperative increased risk of PPCs developed PPCs more frequently: 19 versus 7%, relative risk (RR) 3.16 (95% confidence interval 2.76 to 3.61), P ˂ 0.001) and had longer hospital stays. The only ventilatory factor associated with the occurrence of PPCs was the peak pressure. CONCLUSION The incidence of patients with a predicted increased risk of PPCs is high. A large proportion of patients receive high V T and low PEEP levels. PPCs occur frequently in patients at increased risk, with worse clinical outcome.</p

Multiplicity dependence of inclusive J/psi production at midrapidity in pp collisions at root s=13 TeV

Measurements of the inclusive J/psi yield as a function of charged-particle pseudorapidity density dN(ch)/d eta in pp collisions at root s = 13 TeV with ALICE at the LHC are reported. The J/psi meson yield is measured at midrapidity (vertical bar y vertical bar <0.9) in the dielectron channel, for events selected based on the charged-particle multiplicity at midrapidity (vertical bar eta vertical bar <1) and at forward rapidity (-3.7 <eta <-1.7 and 2.8 <eta <5.1); both observables are normalized to their corresponding averages in minimum bias events. The increase of the normalized J/psi yield with normalized dN(ch)/d eta is significantly stronger than linear and dependent on the transverse momentum. The data are compared to theoretical predictions, which describe the observed trends well, albeit not always quantitatively. (C) 2020 European Organization for Nuclear Research. Published by Elsevier B.V.Peer reviewe

Smart shop-floor monitoring via manufacturing blueprints and complex-event processing

Nowadays, Product-Service-Systems (PSS) are being modernized into smart connected products that target to transform the industrial scenery and unlock unique prospects. This concept enforces a new technological heap and lifecycle models to support smart connected products. The intelligence that smart, connected products embed paves the way for more sophisticated data gathering and analytics capabilities ushering in tandem a new era of smarter supply and production chains, smarter production processes, and even end-to-end connected manufacturing ecosystems. The main contribution of this paper is a smart shop-floor monitoring framework and underpinning technological solutions, which enables the proactive identification and resolution of shop-floor distributions. The proposed monitoring framework is based on the synergy between the novel concept of Manufacturing Blueprints and Complex Event Processing (CEP) technologies, while it encompasses a middleware layer that enables loose coupling and adaptation in practice. The framework provides the basis for actionable PSS and production “intelligence” and facilitates a shift toward more fact-based manufacturing decisions. Implementation and validation of the proposed framework is performed through a real-world case study which demonstrates its applicability, and assesses the usability and efficiency of the proposed solutions

Knowledge corruption for visual perception in individuals high on paranoia

Studies revealed that patients with paranoid schizophrenia display overconfidence in errors for memory and social cognition tasks. The present investigation examined whether this pattern holds true for visual perception tasks. Nonclinical participants were recruited via an online panel. Individuals were asked to complete a questionnaire that included the Paranoia Checklist and were then presented with 24 blurry pictures; half contained a hidden object while the other half showed snowy (visual) noise. Participants were asked to state whether the visual items contained an object and how confident they were in their judgment. Data from 1966 individuals were included following a conservative selection process. Participants high on core paranoid symptoms showed a poor calibration of confidence for correct versus incorrect responses. In particular, participants high on paranoia displayed overconfidence in incorrect responses and demonstrated a 20% error rate for responses made with high confidence compared to a 12% error rate in participants with low paranoia scores. Interestingly, paranoia scores declined after performance of the task. For the first time, overconfidence in errors was demonstrated among individuals with high levels of paranoia using a visual perception task, tentatively suggesting it is a ubiquitous phenomenon. In view of the significant decline in paranoia across time, bias modification programs may incorporate items such as the one employed here to teach patients with clinical paranoia the fallibility of human cognition, which may foster subsequent symptom improvement

Subjective competence breeds overconfidence in errors in psychosis. A hubris account of paranoia

Background and objectives: Overconfidence in errors is a well-replicated cognitive bias in psychosis. However, prior studies have sometimes failed to find differences between patients and controls for more difficult tasks. We pursued the hypothesis that overconfidence in errors is exaggerated in participants with a liability to psychosis relative to controls only when they feel competent in the respective topic and/or deem the question easy. Whereas subjective competence likely enhances confidence in those with low psychosis liability as well, we still expected to find more 'residual' caution in the latter group. Methods: We adopted a psychometric high-risk approach to circumvent the confounding influence of treatment. A total of 2321 individuals from the general population were administered a task modeled after the "Who wants to be a millionaire" quiz. Participants were requested to endorse one out of four response options, graded for confidence, and were asked to provide ratings regarding subjective competence for the knowledge domain as well as the subjective difficulty of each item. Results: In line with our assumption, overconfidence in errors was increased overall in participants scoring high on the Paranoia Checklist core paranoia subscale (2 SD above the mean). This pattern of results was particularly prominent for items for which participants considered themselves competent and which they rated as easy. Limitations: Results need to be replicated in a clinical sample. Discussion: In support of our hypothesis, subjective competence and task difficulty moderate overconfidence in errors in psychosis. Trainings that teach patients the fallibility of human cognition may help reduce delusional ideation. (C) 2015 Published by Elsevier Ltd