Planning a sample for an epidemiological survey

This work illustrates the joint use of a pilot study and an administrative data base for designing a probabilistic sample for an epidemiological survey. The target is to estimate the prevalence of an asymptomatic disease, the aortic valve stenosis (AS), in the elderly population of the city of Bologna, Italy. The novelty of the study is to reach the target population of elderly patients via a sample of their general practitioners (GPs). The pilot study was conducted in San Giovanni in Persiceto, a town in the province of Bologna. Overall information on patients and their GPs are available in the Azienda Unità Sanitaria Locale di Bologna (AUSL) data sets. Since the disease is asymptomatic, the sampling plan is designed to estimate the number of suspected patients that will be sent to further echocardiographic (ECO) examination. The probabilistic sampling plan aims at controlling the sources of randomness, via an appropriate clustering of the population of GPs. The number of practitioners to sample is fixed in advance. The subpopulations of patients to screen are also defined in advance and assigned to doctors. In this way the potential sources of randomness, due to the individual choices of doctors out of the definition of the experiment, are avoided. The number of elderly patients per doctor has been identified, from the pilot study, as an important factor able to influence the proportion of suspected patients sent to further examination. This feature is the leading factor of the sampling design, together with the clustering of the AUSL Bologna territory in NCPs, which emerges from the AUSL data set

New Approach for the Detection of Sub-ppm Limonene: An Investigation through Chemoresistive Metal-Oxide Semiconductors

R-(+)-limonene, one of the major constituents of citrus oils, is a monoterpene that is widely used as a fragrance additive in cosmetics, foods, and industrial solvents. Nowadays, its detection mainly relies on bulky and expensive analytical methods and only a few research works proved its revelation through affordable and portable sensors, such as electrochemical and quartz crystal microbalance sensors. In response to the demand for effective miniaturized sensing devices to be integrated into Internet of Things systems, this study represents a pioneering investigation of chemoresistive gas sensor capabilities addressed to R-(+)-limonene detection. An array of seven metal-oxide sensors was exploited to perform a complete electrical characterization of the target analyte. The experimental evidence allowed us to identify the WO3-based sensor as the most promising candidate for R-(+)-limonene detection. The material was highly sensitive already at sub-ppm concentrations (response of 2.5 at 100 ppb), consistent with applicative parameters, and it resulted in selective vs. different gases at a lower operating temperature (200 ◦C) than the other sensors tested. Furthermore, it exhibited a humidity-independent behavior under real-life conditions (relative humidity > 20%). Finally, the WO3 sensor also demonstrated a remarkable cross-selectivity, thus enabling its exploitation in cutting-edge applications

Machine learning application for development of a data-driven predictive model able to investigate quality of life scores in a rare disease.

BACKGROUND:Alkaptonuria (AKU) is an ultra-rare autosomal recessive disease caused by a mutation in the homogentisate 1,2-dioxygenase (HGD) gene. One of the main obstacles in studying AKU, and other ultra-rare diseases, is the lack of a standardized methodology to assess disease severity or response to treatment. Quality of Life scores (QoL) are a reliable way to monitor patients' clinical condition and health status. QoL scores allow to monitor the evolution of diseases and assess the suitability of treatments by taking into account patients' symptoms, general health status and care satisfaction. However, more comprehensive tools to study a complex and multi-systemic disease like AKU are needed. In this study, a Machine Learning (ML) approach was implemented with the aim to perform a prediction of QoL scores based on clinical data deposited in the ApreciseKUre, an AKU- dedicated database. METHOD:Data derived from 129 AKU patients have been firstly examined through a preliminary statistical analysis (Pearson correlation coefficient) to measure the linear correlation between 11 QoL scores. The variable importance in QoL scores prediction of 110 ApreciseKUre biomarkers has been then calculated using XGBoost, with K-nearest neighbours algorithm (k-NN) approach. Due to the limited number of data available, this model has been validated using surrogate data analysis. RESULTS:We identified a direct correlation of 6 (age, Serum Amyloid A, Chitotriosidase, Advanced Oxidation Protein Products, S-thiolated proteins and Body Mass Index) out of 110 biomarkers with the QoL health status, in particular with the KOOS (Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score) symptoms (Relative Absolute Error (RAE) 0.25). The error distribution of surrogate-model (RAE 0.38) was unequivocally higher than the true-model one (RAE of 0.25), confirming the consistency of our dataset. Our data showed that inflammation, oxidative stress, amyloidosis and lifestyle of patients correlates with the QoL scores for physical status, while no correlation between the biomarkers and patients' mental health was present (RAE 1.1). CONCLUSIONS:This proof of principle study for rare diseases confirms the importance of database, allowing data management and analysis, which can be used to predict more effective treatments

Effects of Nitisinone on Oxidative and Inflammatory Markers in Alkaptonuria: Results from SONIA1 and SONIA2 Studies

Nitisinone (NTBC) was recently approved to treat alkaptonuria (AKU), but there is no information on its impact on oxidative stress and inflammation, which are observed in AKU. Therefore, serum samples collected during the clinical studies SONIA1 (40 AKU patients) and SONIA2 (138 AKU patients) were tested for Serum Amyloid A (SAA), CRP and IL-8 by ELISA; Advanced Oxidation Protein Products (AOPP) by spectrophotometry; and protein carbonyls by Western blot. Our results show that NTBC had no significant effects on the tested markers except for a slight but statistically significant effect for NTBC, but not for the combination of time and NTBC, on SAA levels in SONIA2 patients. Notably, the majority of SONIA2 patients presented with SAA > 10 mg/L, and 30 patients in the control group (43.5%) and 40 patients (58.0%) in the NTBC-treated group showed persistently elevated SAA > 10 mg/L at each visit during SONIA2. Higher serum SAA correlated with lower quality of life and higher morbidity. Despite no quantitative differences in AOPP, the preliminary analysis of protein carbonyls highlighted patterns that deserve further investigation. Overall, our results suggest that NTBC cannot control the sub-clinical inflammation due to increased SAA observed in AKU, which is also a risk factor for developing secondary amyloidosis. © 2022 by the authors

Differential cross section measurements for the production of a W boson in association with jets in proton–proton collisions at √s = 7 TeV

Measurements are reported of differential cross sections for the production of a W boson, which decays into a muon and a neutrino, in association with jets, as a function of several variables, including the transverse momenta (pT) and pseudorapidities of the four leading jets, the scalar sum of jet transverse momenta (HT), and the difference in azimuthal angle between the directions of each jet and the muon. The data sample of pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV was collected with the CMS detector at the LHC and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 5.0 fb[superscript −1]. The measured cross sections are compared to predictions from Monte Carlo generators, MadGraph + pythia and sherpa, and to next-to-leading-order calculations from BlackHat + sherpa. The differential cross sections are found to be in agreement with the predictions, apart from the pT distributions of the leading jets at high pT values, the distributions of the HT at high-HT and low jet multiplicity, and the distribution of the difference in azimuthal angle between the leading jet and the muon at low values.United States. Dept. of EnergyNational Science Foundation (U.S.)Alfred P. Sloan Foundatio

Search for stop and higgsino production using diphoton Higgs boson decays

Results are presented of a search for a "natural" supersymmetry scenario with gauge mediated symmetry breaking. It is assumed that only the supersymmetric partners of the top-quark (stop) and the Higgs boson (higgsino) are accessible. Events are examined in which there are two photons forming a Higgs boson candidate, and at least two b-quark jets. In 19.7 inverse femtobarns of proton-proton collision data at sqrt(s) = 8 TeV, recorded in the CMS experiment, no evidence of a signal is found and lower limits at the 95% confidence level are set, excluding the stop mass below 360 to 410 GeV, depending on the higgsino mass

Optimasi Portofolio Resiko Menggunakan Model Markowitz MVO Dikaitkan dengan Keterbatasan Manusia dalam Memprediksi Masa Depan dalam Perspektif Al-Qur`an

Risk portfolio on modern finance has become increasingly technical, requiring the use of sophisticated mathematical tools in both research and practice. Since companies cannot insure themselves completely against risk, as human incompetence in predicting the future precisely that written in Al-Quran surah Luqman verse 34, they have to manage it to yield an optimal portfolio. The objective here is to minimize the variance among all portfolios, or alternatively, to maximize expected return among all portfolios that has at least a certain expected return. Furthermore, this study focuses on optimizing risk portfolio so called Markowitz MVO (Mean-Variance Optimization). Some theoretical frameworks for analysis are arithmetic mean, geometric mean, variance, covariance, linear programming, and quadratic programming. Moreover, finding a minimum variance portfolio produces a convex quadratic programming, that is minimizing the objective function ðð¥with constraintsð ð 𥠥 ðandð´ð¥ = ð. The outcome of this research is the solution of optimal risk portofolio in some investments that could be finished smoothly using MATLAB R2007b software together with its graphic analysis

Impacts of the Tropical Pacific/Indian Oceans on the Seasonal Cycle of the West African Monsoon

The current consensus is that drought has developed in the Sahel during the second half of the twentieth century as a result of remote effects of oceanic anomalies amplified by local land–atmosphere interactions. This paper focuses on the impacts of oceanic anomalies upon West African climate and specifically aims to identify those from SST anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Oceans during spring and summer seasons, when they were significant. Idealized sensitivity experiments are performed with four atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The prescribed SST patterns used in the AGCMs are based on the leading mode of covariability between SST anomalies over the Pacific/Indian Oceans and summer rainfall over West Africa. The results show that such oceanic anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Ocean lead to a northward shift of an anomalous dry belt from the Gulf of Guinea to the Sahel as the season advances. In the Sahel, the magnitude of rainfall anomalies is comparable to that obtained by other authors using SST anomalies confined to the proximity of the Atlantic Ocean. The mechanism connecting the Pacific/Indian SST anomalies with West African rainfall has a strong seasonal cycle. In spring (May and June), anomalous subsidence develops over both the Maritime Continent and the equatorial Atlantic in response to the enhanced equatorial heating. Precipitation increases over continental West Africa in association with stronger zonal convergence of moisture. In addition, precipitation decreases over the Gulf of Guinea. During the monsoon peak (July and August), the SST anomalies move westward over the equatorial Pacific and the two regions where subsidence occurred earlier in the seasons merge over West Africa. The monsoon weakens and rainfall decreases over the Sahel, especially in August.Peer reviewe

Measurement of the top quark forward-backward production asymmetry and the anomalous chromoelectric and chromomagnetic moments in pp collisions at √s = 13 TeV

Abstract The parton-level top quark (t) forward-backward asymmetry and the anomalous chromoelectric (d̂ t) and chromomagnetic (μ̂ t) moments have been measured using LHC pp collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, collected in the CMS detector in a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb−1. The linearized variable AFB(1) is used to approximate the asymmetry. Candidate t t ¯ events decaying to a muon or electron and jets in final states with low and high Lorentz boosts are selected and reconstructed using a fit of the kinematic distributions of the decay products to those expected for t t ¯ final states. The values found for the parameters are AFB(1)=0.048−0.087+0.095(stat)−0.029+0.020(syst),μ̂t=−0.024−0.009+0.013(stat)−0.011+0.016(syst), and a limit is placed on the magnitude of | d̂ t| < 0.03 at 95% confidence level. [Figure not available: see fulltext.