Global economic impacts of climate variability and change during the 20th century

Estimates of the global economic impacts of observed climate change during the 20th century obtained by applying five impact functions of different integrated assessment models (IAMs) are separated into their main natural and anthropogenic components. The estimates of the costs that can be attributed to natural variability factors and to the anthropogenic intervention with the climate system in general tend to show that: 1) during the first half of the century, the amplitude of the impacts associated with natural variability is considerably larger than that produced by anthropogenic factors and the effects of natural variability fluctuated between being negative and positive. These non-monotonic impacts are mostly determined by the low-frequency variability and the persistence of the climate system; 2) IAMs do not agree on the sign (nor on the magnitude) of the impacts of anthropogenic forcing but indicate that they steadily grew over the first part of the century, rapidly accelerated since the mid 1970's, and decelerated during the first decade of the 21st century. This deceleration is accentuated by the existence of interaction effects between natural variability and natural and anthropogenic forcing. The economic impacts of anthropogenic forcing range in the tenths of percentage of the world GDP by the end of the 20th century; 3) the impacts of natural forcing are about one order of magnitude lower than those associated with anthropogenic forcing and are dominated by the solar forcing; 4) the interaction effects between natural and anthropogenic factors can importantly modulate how impacts actually occur, at least for moderate increases in external forcing. Human activities became dominant drivers of the estimated economic impacts at the end of the 20th century, producing larger impacts than those of low-frequency natural variability. Some of the uses and limitations of IAMs are discussed

Ensemble Composition and Activity Levels of Insectivorous Bats in Response to Management Intensification in Coffee Agroforestry Systems

Shade coffee plantations have received attention for their role in biodiversity conservation. Bats are among the most diverse mammalian taxa in these systems; however, previous studies of bats in coffee plantations have focused on the largely herbivorous leaf-nosed bats (Phyllostomidae). In contrast, we have virtually no information on how ensembles of aerial insectivorous bats – nearly half the Neotropical bat species – change in response to habitat modification. To evaluate the effects of agroecosystem management on insectivorous bats, we studied their diversity and activity in southern Chiapas, Mexico, a landscape dominated by coffee agroforestry. We used acoustic monitoring and live captures to characterize the insectivorous bat ensemble in forest fragments and coffee plantations differing in the structural and taxonomic complexity of shade trees. We captured bats of 12 non-phyllostomid species; acoustic monitoring revealed the presence of at least 12 more species of aerial insectivores. Richness of forest bats was the same across all land-use types; in contrast, species richness of open-space bats increased in low shade, intensively managed coffee plantations. Conversely, only forest bats demonstrated significant differences in ensemble structure (as measured by similarity indices) across land-use types. Both overall activity and feeding activity of forest bats declined significantly with increasing management intensity, while the overall activity, but not feeding activity, of open-space bats increased. We conclude that diverse shade coffee plantations in our study area serve as valuable foraging and commuting habitat for aerial insectivorous bats, and several species also commute through or forage in low shade coffee monocultures

Ensemble Composition and Activity Levels of Insectivorous Bats in Response to Management Intensification in Coffee Agroforestry Systems

Shade coffee plantations have received attention for their role in biodiversity conservation. Bats are among the most diverse mammalian taxa in these systems; however, previous studies of bats in coffee plantations have focused on the largely herbivorous leaf-nosed bats (Phyllostomidae). In contrast, we have virtually no information on how ensembles of aerial insectivorous bats – nearly half the Neotropical bat species – change in response to habitat modification. To evaluate the effects of agroecosystem management on insectivorous bats, we studied their diversity and activity in southern Chiapas, Mexico, a landscape dominated by coffee agroforestry. We used acoustic monitoring and live captures to characterize the insectivorous bat ensemble in forest fragments and coffee plantations differing in the structural and taxonomic complexity of shade trees. We captured bats of 12 non-phyllostomid species; acoustic monitoring revealed the presence of at least 12 more species of aerial insectivores. Richness of forest bats was the same across all land-use types; in contrast, species richness of open-space bats increased in low shade, intensively managed coffee plantations. Conversely, only forest bats demonstrated significant differences in ensemble structure (as measured by similarity indices) across land-use types. Both overall activity and feeding activity of forest bats declined significantly with increasing management intensity, while the overall activity, but not feeding activity, of open-space bats increased. We conclude that diverse shade coffee plantations in our study area serve as valuable foraging and commuting habitat for aerial insectivorous bats, and several species also commute through or forage in low shade coffee monocultures

Towards a fair comparison of statistical and dynamical downscaling in the framework of the EURO-CORDEX initiative

Both statistical and dynamical downscaling methods are well established techniques to bridge the gap between the coarse information produced by global circulation models and the regional-to-local scales required by the climate change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (IAV) communities. A number of studies have analyzed the relative merits of each technique by inter-comparing their performance in reproducing the observed climate, as given by a number of climatic indices (e.g. mean values, percentiles, spells). However, in this paper we stress that fair comparisons should be based on indices that are not affected by the calibration towards the observed climate used for some of the methods. We focus on precipitation (over continental Spain) and consider the output of eight Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the EURO-CORDEX initiative at 0.44? resolution and five Statistical Downscaling Methods (SDMs) ?analog resampling, weather typing and generalized linear models? trained using the Spain044 observational gridded dataset on exactly the same RCM grid. The performance of these models is inter-compared in terms of several standard indices ?mean precipitation, 90th percentile on wet days, maximum precipitation amount and maximum number of consecutive dry days? taking into account the parameters involved in the SDM training phase. It is shown, that not only the directly affected indices should be carefully analyzed, but also those indirectly influenced (e.g. percentile-based indices for precipitation) which are more difficult to identify. We also analyze how simple transformations (e.g. linear scaling) could be applied to the outputs of the uncalibrated methods in order to put SDMs and RCMs on equal footing, and thus perform a fairer comparison.We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Regional Climate, and theWorking Group on CoupledModelling, former coordinating body of CORDEX and responsible panel for CMIP5. We also thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table 1 of this paper) for producing and making available their model output. We also acknowledge the Earth System Grid Federation infrastructure and AEMET and University of Cantabria for the Spain02 dataset (available at http: //www.meteo.unican.es/en/datasets/spain02). All the statistical downscaling experiments have been computed using theMeteoLab software (http://www.meteo.unican.es/software/meteolab), which is an open-source Matlab toolbox for statistical downscaling. This work has been partially supported by CORWES (CGL2010-22158-C02) and EXTREMBLES (CGL2010-21869) projects funded by the Spanish R&D programme. AC thanks the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness for the funding provided within the FPI programme (BES-2011-047612 and EEBB-I-13-06354), JMG acknowledges the support from the SPECS project (FP7-ENV-2012-308378) and JF is grateful to the EUPORIAS project (FP7-ENV-2012-308291). We also thank three anonymous referees for their useful comments that helped to improve the original manuscript

Agrobacterium rhizogenes-Mediated Transformation of the Parasitic Plant Phtheirospermum japonicum

Background: Plants within the Orobanchaceae are an agriculturally important group of parasites that attack economically important crops to obtain water and nutrients from their hosts. Despite their agricultural importance, molecular mechanisms of the parasitism are poorly understood. Methodology/Principal Findings: We developed transient and stable transformation systems for Phtheirospermum japonicum, a facultative parasitic plant in the Orobanchaceae. The transformation protocol was established by a combination of sonication and acetosyringone treatments using the hairy-root-inducing bacterium, Agrobacterium rhizogenes and young seedlings. Transgenic hairy roots of P. japonicum were obtained from cotyledons 2 to 3 weeks after A. rhizogenes inoculation. The presence and the expression of transgenes in P. japonicum were verified by genomic PCR, Southern blot and RT-PCR methods. Transgenic roots derived from A. rhizogenes-mediated transformation were able to develop haustoria on rice and maize roots. Transgenic roots also formed apparently competent haustoria in response to 2,6dimethoxy-1,4-benzoquinone (DMBQ), a haustorium-inducing chemical. Using this system, we introduced a reporter gene with a Cyclin B1 promoter into P. japonicum, and visualized cell division during haustorium formation. Conclusions: We provide an easy and efficient method for hairy-root transformation of P. japonicum. Transgenic marker analysis revealed that cell divisions during haustorium development occur 24 h after DMBQ treatment. The protocol

Search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum in pp collisions at √ s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Results of a search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum are reported. The search uses 20.3 fb−1 of √ s = 8 TeV data collected in 2012 with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Events are required to have at least one jet with pT > 120 GeV and no leptons. Nine signal regions are considered with increasing missing transverse momentum requirements between Emiss T > 150 GeV and Emiss T > 700 GeV. Good agreement is observed between the number of events in data and Standard Model expectations. The results are translated into exclusion limits on models with either large extra spatial dimensions, pair production of weakly interacting dark matter candidates, or production of very light gravitinos in a gauge-mediated supersymmetric model. In addition, limits on the production of an invisibly decaying Higgs-like boson leading to similar topologies in the final state are presente

Developmental Patterns of Doublecortin Expression and White Matter Neuron Density in the Postnatal Primate Prefrontal Cortex and Schizophrenia

Postnatal neurogenesis occurs in the subventricular zone and dentate gyrus, and evidence suggests that new neurons may be present in additional regions of the mature primate brain, including the prefrontal cortex (PFC). Addition of new neurons to the PFC implies local generation of neurons or migration from areas such as the subventricular zone. We examined the putative contribution of new, migrating neurons to postnatal cortical development by determining the density of neurons in white matter subjacent to the cortex and measuring expression of doublecortin (DCX), a microtubule-associated protein involved in neuronal migration, in humans and rhesus macaques. We found a striking decline in DCX expression (human and macaque) and density of white matter neurons (humans) during infancy, consistent with the arrival of new neurons in the early postnatal cortex. Considering the expansion of the brain during this time, the decline in white matter neuron density does not necessarily indicate reduced total numbers of white matter neurons in early postnatal life. Furthermore, numerous cells in the white matter and deep grey matter were positive for the migration-associated glycoprotein polysialiated-neuronal cell adhesion molecule and GAD65/67, suggesting that immature migrating neurons in the adult may be GABAergic. We also examined DCX mRNA in the PFC of adult schizophrenia patients (n = 37) and matched controls (n = 37) and did not find any difference in DCX mRNA expression. However, we report a negative correlation between DCX mRNA expression and white matter neuron density in adult schizophrenia patients, in contrast to a positive correlation in human development where DCX mRNA and white matter neuron density are higher earlier in life. Accumulation of neurons in the white matter in schizophrenia would be congruent with a negative correlation between DCX mRNA and white matter neuron density and support the hypothesis of a migration deficit in schizophrenia

Bats in the anthropogenic matrix: Challenges and opportunities for the conservation of chiroptera and their ecosystem services in agricultural landscapes

Intensification in land-use and farming practices has had largely negative effects on bats, leading to population declines and concomitant losses of ecosystem services. Current trends in land-use change suggest that agricultural areas will further expand, while production systems may either experience further intensification (particularly in developing nations) or become more environmentally friendly (especially in Europe). In this chapter, we review the existing literature on how agricultural management affects the bat assemblages and the behavior of individual bat species, as well as the literature on provision of ecosystem services by bats (pest insect suppression and pollination) in agricultural systems. Bats show highly variable responses to habitat conversion, with no significant change in species richness or measures of activity or abundance. In contrast, intensification within agricultural systems (i.e., increased agrochemical inputs, reduction of natural structuring elements such as hedges, woods, and marshes) had more consistently negative effects on abundance and species richness. Agroforestry systems appear to mitigate negative consequences of habitat conversion and intensification, often having higher abundances and activity levels than natural areas. Across biomes, bats play key roles in limiting populations of arthropods by consuming various agricultural pests. In tropical areas, bats are key pollinators of several commercial fruit species. However, these substantial benefits may go unrecognized by farmers, who sometimes associate bats with ecosystem disservices such as crop raiding. Given the importance of bats for global food production, future agricultural management should focus on “wildlife-friendly” farming practices that allow more bats to exploit and persist in the anthropogenic matrix so as to enhance provision of ecosystem services. Pressing research topics include (1) a better understanding of how local-level versus landscape-level management practices interact to structure bat assemblages, (2) the effects of new pesticide classes and GM crops on bat populations, and (3) how increased documentation and valuation of the ecosystem services provided by bats could improve attitudes of producers toward their conservation

Effects of climate and land-use changes on fish catches across lakes at a global scale

Globally, our knowledge on lake fisheries is still limited despite their importance to food security and livelihoods. Here we show that fish catches can respond either positively or negatively to climate and land-use changes, by analyzing time-series data (1970–2014) for 31 lakes across five continents. We find that effects of a climate or land-use driver (e.g., air temperature) on lake environment could be relatively consistent in directions, but consequential changes in a lake-environmental factor (e.g., water temperature) could result in either increases or decreases in fish catch in a given lake. A subsequent correlation analysis indicates that reductions in fish catch was less likely to occur in response to potential climate and land-use changes if a lake is located in a region with greater access to clean water. This finding suggests that adequate investments for water-quality protection and water-use efficiency can provide additional benefits to lake fisheries and food security

Substituting abacavir for hyperlipidemia-associated protease inhibitors in HAART regimens improves fasting lipid profiles, maintains virologic suppression, and simplifies treatment

BACKGROUND: Hyperlipidemia secondary to protease inhibitors (PI) may abate by switching to anti-HIV medications without lipid effects. METHOD: An open-label, randomized pilot study compared changes in fasting lipids and HIV-1 RNA in 104 HIV-infected adults with PI-associated hyperlipidemia (fasting serum total cholesterol >200 mg/dL) who were randomized either to a regimen in which their PI was replaced by abacavir 300 mg twice daily (n = 52) or a regimen in which their PI was continued (n = 52) for 28 weeks. All patients had undetectable viral loads (HIV-1 RNA <50 copies/mL) at baseline and were naïve to abacavir and non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors. RESULTS: At baseline, the mean total cholesterol was 243 mg/dL, low density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol 149 mg/dL, high density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol 41 mg/dL, and triglycerides 310 mg/dL. Mean CD4+ cell counts were 551 and 531 cells/mm(3 )in the abacavir-switch and PI-continuation arms, respectively. At week 28, the abacavir-switch arm had significantly greater least square mean reduction from baseline in total cholesterol (-42 vs -10 mg/dL, P < 0.001), LDL-cholesterol (-14 vs +5 mg/dL, P = 0.016), and triglycerides (-134 vs -36 mg/dL, P = 0.019) than the PI-continuation arm, with no differences in HDL-cholesterol (+0.2 vs +1.3 mg/dL, P = 0.583). A higher proportion of patients in the abacavir-switch arm had decreases in protocol-defined total cholesterol and triglyceride toxicity grades, whereas a smaller proportion had increases in these toxicity grades. At week 28, an intent-to treat: missing = failure analysis showed that the abacavir-switch and PI-continuation arms did not differ significantly with respect to proportion of patients maintaining HIV-1 RNA <400 or <50 copies/mL or adjusted mean change from baseline in CD4+ cell count. Two possible abacavir-related hypersensitivity reactions were reported. No significant changes in glucose, insulin, insulin resistance, C-peptide, or waist-to-hip ratios were observed in either treatment arm, nor were differences in these parameters noted between treatments. CONCLUSION: In hyperlipidemic, antiretroviral-experienced patients with HIV-1 RNA levels <50 copies/mL and CD4+ cell counts >500 cells/mm(3), substituting abacavir for hyperlipidemia-associated PIs in combination antiretroviral regimens improves lipid profiles and maintains virologic suppression over a 28-week period, and it simplifies treatment