Complémentarités et convergences de méthodes de régionalisation des précipitations : application à une région endoréique du Nord-Mexique

La connaissance des champs pluviométriques annuels est importante dans les zones arides et semi-arides où la gestion de l'eau est un exercice permanent d'aménagement de la pénurie, comme cela est le cas au Nord du Mexique.On se propose de montrer ici qu'une meilleure connaissance des disponibilités en eau peut s'appuyer sur la détermination de régions pluviométriquement homogènes à partir de diverses méthodes complémentaires ou convergentes.Pour définir des régions homogènes, on part de la répartition des stations par rapport à la régression pluviométrie/altitude. Des analyses factorielles en composantes principales et des correspondances permettent également de proposer des régions homogènes suivant des variables définies et disponibles pour toutes les stations. On s'appuie aussi sur les régimes pluviométriques pour déterminer d'autres régionalisations. Parallèlement on a pu utiliser la répartition des stations par rapport au gradient altitudinal pour créer des régions dont l'homogénéité vis-à-vis des précipitations a pu être vérifiée par la Méthode du Vecteur Régional (MVR), basée sur le principe de la pseudo-proportionnalité des données de postes proches.La comparaison des résultats obtenus par chacune des méthodes permet de constater que dans la région traitée, les limites entre régions " homogènes " sont souvent les mêmes, bien que les modes de détermination soient différents. Enfin, les différences apportent une information supplémentaire pour la compréhension des mécanismes locaux ou régionaux de la répartition des champs de pluie.Knowledge of annual rainfall is of great importance in arid and semi-arid areas, because water management is dominated by scarcity. The Nazas-Aguanaval river basin constitutes one of the main endoreic basins in Mexico (92 000 km2). It extends from the crests of the Western SierraMadre to as far as the Chihuahuan desert, in the states of Durango, Coahuila and Zacatecas. Spatial variability of rainfall is significant with annual rainfall amounts ranging from 900 mm in the higher areas of the Sierra Madre to 180 mm at the centre of the Laguna de Mayran. However, temporal variability of the precipitation amount is also appreciable, and it increases from the sub-humid areas of the mountains to the desert. The coefficient of variation for annual precipitation ranges from 0.2 in the mountains to 0.4 in Chihuahuan desert. Furthermore, in 1992, 1994, 1995, and from 1997 to 2000 severe rainfall deficits forced farmers to reduce strongly irrigated areas, thus leading to socio-economic development problems in this region. It is shown in this paper that an improvement in water availability knowledge is attainable by the determination of homogeneous rainfall regions, based on complementary or convergent methods.Rainfall distribution is a result of many factors, including the atmospheric circulation, the continental pattern, the coastal design, the location of major mountainous massifs, the distance from the ocean, and other site factors. The regionalisation of precipitation has been the subject of much research for almost all types of climates. The influence of zonal and regional factors is also determined in regional monographs where the role of local variables (relief, vegetation, general roughness of landscape, etc.) is described in relation to the large-scale circulation scheme. In most of the cases, the interpolation of values between two observations is necessary and quite difficult. Kriging is widely used for this purpose, as is co-kriging, which takes into account the topography or some other local factors and frequently gives better reconstitution of rainfall data. In order to determine the first set of homogeneous regions in northwestern Mexico, the elevation gradient of the rainfall amount was defined by a simple regression. All the stations were located with respect to the regression line and they can form apparent groups. The following relation was obtained :P=0.31 H - 133r2=0.73; n=84)(where P is annual rainfall in mm and H the altitude in m).In the same way, various statistical analysis were performed using all data available from the rainfall measurement stations, such as elevation, distance from the Pacific Ocean, exposure, annual rainfall amount, and the type of topography and vegetation cover surrounding the station. An Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis (EOF) and a Factorial Analysis of Correspondences (FAC) revealed other kinds of regionalisation. The precipitation regime is tropical-like in spite of the latitude (25° N), but the percentage of annual precipitation in winter appeared as a segregating factor and thus was used to define the climatic geography. This was determined by a stepwise discriminant analysis, which allowed the segregation of the north-eastern area of the Nazas-Aguanaval basin. This is the dryer region of the basin because it is less exposed to monsoon fluxes and the proportion of winter rain is higher there than in the remaining basin.The main variables explaining the spatial distribution of precipitation are altitude and distance from the Pacific Ocean, as determined by both the EOF analysis and the analysis of correspondences. The grouping of stations segregated by the elevation gradient regression led to regions where the homogeneity in relation to the annual rainfall amount was tested and verified by the Regional Vector Method (RVM). This method is based on the principle of pseudo-proportionality between annual rainfall amounts at close stations.The Nazas-Aguanaval basin is divided into three climatic regions defined by precipitation: the Western Sierra Madre, the Chihuahuan desert, and a semi-arid area that is divided into two sub-regions (Middle Nazas basin and Aguanaval plateau) by the analysis of correspondences. As a result of the regional rainfall analysis, some variograms were performed to determine the length of the validity of the rainfall data. However, it appeared that a multidirectional variogram did not explain these data. The role that relief (mainly the Western Sierra Madre) plays in the spatial distribution of precipitation does not explain the length of rainfall data. Introducing the direction of mountain range into the variogram demonstrated that the relief played a significant role, and in this case the length of the rainfall variogram data was 180 km.A comparison of results obtained using each method led to the conclusion that the boundaries between homogeneous regions are often the same while the determination processes are different. Finally, all the proposed methods are complementary and the differences between all characterisations give additional information regarding the local and regional processes that explain the annual rainfall spatial distribution. Simple tools have been used to acquire a better knowledge of rainfall spatial distribution.In the case of Northern Mexico, the low density of a measurement network (rain gauges), particularly in mountainous or arid zones, is partially attenuated by the possibility of evaluating the main climatic characteristics for the different regions defined in terms of rainfall

Long Term Precipitation Chemistry and Wet Deposition in a Remote Dry Savanna Site in Africa (Niger)

A long-term measurement of precipitation chemistry has been carried-out in a rural area of Banizoumbou, in the Sahel (Niger), representative of the african semi-arid savanna ecosystem. A total of 305 rainfall samples, representing 90% of the total annual rainfall, were collected with an automatic wet-only rain sampler from June 1994 to September 2005. Using ionic chromatography, pH major inorganic and organic ions were analyzed. Rainwater chemistry at the site is controlled by soil dust emissions associated to a strong terrigeneous contribution represented by SO42¿, Ca2+, Carbonates, K+ and Mg2+. Calcium and carbonates represent about 40% of the total ionic charge of precipitation. The second highest contribution is nitrogenous, with annual Volume Weighed Mean (VWM) NO3¿ and NH4+, concentrations of 11.6 and 18.1 µeq.l-1, respectively. This is thesignature of ammonia sources related to animals and NOx emissions from savannas soils rain-induced, at the beginning of the rainy season. The mean annual NH3 and NO2 air concentration are of 6 ppbv and 2.6 ppbv, respectively. The annual VWM precipitation concentration of sodium and chloride are both of 8.7 µeq.l-1 and reflects the marine signature from the monsoon humid air masses coming from the ocean. The mean pH value, calculated from the VWM of H+, is 5.64. Acidity is neutralized by mineral dust, mainly carbonates, and/or dissolved gases such NH3. High level of organic acidity with 8 µeq.l-1 and 5.2 µeq.l-1 of formate and acetate were found, respectively. The analysis of monthly Black Carbon emissions and FAPAR values show that both biogenic emission from vegetation and biomass burning sources could explain the organic acidity content of the precipitation. The interannual variability of the VWM concentrations around the mean (1994¿2005) presents fluctuations between ±5% and ±30% mainly attributed to the variations of sources strength associated with rainfall spatio-temporal distribution. From 1994 to 2005, the total mean wet deposition flux in the Sahelian region is 60.1 mmol.m-2.yr-1 and fluctuates around ±25%. Finally, Banizoumbou measurements, are compared to other long-term measurements of precipitation chemistry in the wet savanna of Lamto (Côte d'Ivoire) and in the forested zone of Zoétélé (Cameroon). The total chemical loadings presents a strong negative gradient from the dry savanna to the forest (143.7, 100.2 to 86.6 µeq.l¿1), associated with the gradient of terrigeneous compounds sources. The wet deposition fluxes present an opposite gradient, with 60.0 mmol.m-2.yr-1 in Banizoumbou, 108.6 mmol.m-2.yr¿1 in Lamto and 162.9 mmol.m-2.yr-1 in Zoétélé, controlled by the rainfall gradient along the ecosystems transect.JRC.DDG.H.3-Global environement monitorin

Observed long-term land cover vs climate impacts on the West African hydrological cycle: lessons for the future ? [P-3330-65]

West Africa has experienced a long lasting, severe drought as from 1970, which seems to be attenuating since 2000. It has induced major changes in living conditions and resources over the region. In the same period, marked changes of land use and land cover have been observed: land clearing for agriculture, driven by high demographic growth rates, and ecosystem evolutions driven by the rainfall deficit. Depending on the region, the combined effects of these climate and environmental changes have induced contrasted impacts on the hydrological cycle. In the Sahel, runoff and river discharges have increased despite the rainfall reduction (“less rain, more water”, the so-called "Sahelian paradox "). Soil crusting and erosion have increased the runoff capacity of the watersheds so that it outperformed the rainfall deficit. Conversely, in the more humid Guinean and Sudanian regions to the South, the opposite (and expected) “less rain, less water” behavior is observed, but the signature of land cover changes can hardly be detected in the hydrological records. These observations over the past 50 years suggest that the hydrological response to climate change can not be analyzed irrespective of other concurrent changes, and primarily ecosystem dynamics and land cover changes. There is no consensus on future rainfall trend over West Africa in IPCC projections, although a higher occurrence of extreme events (rainstorms, dry spells) is expected. An increase in the need for arable land and water resources is expected as well, driven by economic development and demographic growth. Based on past long-term observations on the AMMA-CATCH observatory, we explore in this work various future combinations of climate vs environmental drivers, and we infer the expected resulting trends on water resources, along the west African eco-climatic gradient. (Texte intégral

Rapid tree carbon stock recovery in managed Amazonian forests.

While around 20% of the Amazonian forest has been cleared for pastures and agriculture, one fourth of the remaining forest is dedicated to wood production [1] . Most of these production forests have been or will be selectively harvested for commercial timber, but recent studies show that even soon after logging, harvested stands retain much of their tree-biomass carbon and biodiversity [2,3] . Comparing species richness of various animal taxa among logged and unlogged forests across the tropics, Burivalova et al.[4] found that despite some variability among taxa, biodiversity loss was generally explained by logging intensity (the number of trees extracted). Here, we use a network of 79 permanent sample plots (376 ha total) located at 10 sites across the Amazon Basin [5] to assess the main drivers of time-to-recovery of post-logging tree carbon ( Table S1 ). Recovery time is of direct relevance to policies governing management practices (i.e., allowable volumes cut and cutting cycle lengths), and indirectly to forest-based climate change mitigation interventions

Combined search for the quarks of a sequential fourth generation

Results are presented from a search for a fourth generation of quarks produced singly or in pairs in a data set corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 5 inverse femtobarns recorded by the CMS experiment at the LHC in 2011. A novel strategy has been developed for a combined search for quarks of the up and down type in decay channels with at least one isolated muon or electron. Limits on the mass of the fourth-generation quarks and the relevant Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa matrix elements are derived in the context of a simple extension of the standard model with a sequential fourth generation of fermions. The existence of mass-degenerate fourth-generation quarks with masses below 685 GeV is excluded at 95% confidence level for minimal off-diagonal mixing between the third- and the fourth-generation quarks. With a mass difference of 25 GeV between the quark masses, the obtained limit on the masses of the fourth-generation quarks shifts by about +/- 20 GeV. These results significantly reduce the allowed parameter space for a fourth generation of fermions.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO

Measurements of branching fraction ratios and CP-asymmetries in suppressed B^- -> D(-> K^+ pi^-)K^- and B^- -> D(-> K^+ pi^-)pi^- decays

We report the first reconstruction in hadron collisions of the suppressed decays B^- -> D(-> K^+ pi^-)K^- and B^- -> D(-> K^+ pi^-)pi^-, sensitive to the CKM phase gamma, using data from 7 fb^-1 of integrated luminosity collected by the CDF II detector at the Tevatron collider. We reconstruct a signal for the B^- -> D(-> K^+ pi^-)K^- suppressed mode with a significance of 3.2 standard deviations, and measure the ratios of the suppressed to favored branching fractions R(K) = [22.0 \pm 8.6(stat)\pm 2.6(syst)]\times 10^-3, R^+(K) = [42.6\pm 13.7(stat)\pm 2.8(syst)]\times 10^-3, R^-(K)= [3.8\pm 10.3(stat)\pm 2.7(syst]\times 10^-3, as well as the direct CP-violating asymmetry A(K) = -0.82\pm 0.44(stat)\pm 0.09(syst) of this mode. Corresponding quantities for B^- -> D(-> K^+ pi^-)pi^- decay are also reported.Comment: 8 pages, 1 figure, accepted by Phys.Rev.D Rapid Communications for Publicatio

Compressed representation of a partially defined integer function over multiple arguments

In OLAP (OnLine Analitical Processing) data are analysed in an n-dimensional cube. The cube may be represented as a partially defined function over n arguments. Considering that often the function is not defined everywhere, we ask: is there a known way of representing the function or the points in which it is defined, in a more compact manner than the trivial one

Search for new physics with same-sign isolated dilepton events with jets and missing transverse energy

A search for new physics is performed in events with two same-sign isolated leptons, hadronic jets, and missing transverse energy in the final state. The analysis is based on a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.98 inverse femtobarns produced in pp collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 7 TeV collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC. This constitutes a factor of 140 increase in integrated luminosity over previously published results. The observed yields agree with the standard model predictions and thus no evidence for new physics is found. The observations are used to set upper limits on possible new physics contributions and to constrain supersymmetric models. To facilitate the interpretation of the data in a broader range of new physics scenarios, information on the event selection, detector response, and efficiencies is provided.Comment: Published in Physical Review Letter

Search for a W' boson decaying to a bottom quark and a top quark in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV

Results are presented from a search for a W' boson using a dataset corresponding to 5.0 inverse femtobarns of integrated luminosity collected during 2011 by the CMS experiment at the LHC in pp collisions at sqrt(s)=7 TeV. The W' boson is modeled as a heavy W boson, but different scenarios for the couplings to fermions are considered, involving both left-handed and right-handed chiral projections of the fermions, as well as an arbitrary mixture of the two. The search is performed in the decay channel W' to t b, leading to a final state signature with a single lepton (e, mu), missing transverse energy, and jets, at least one of which is tagged as a b-jet. A W' boson that couples to fermions with the same coupling constant as the W, but to the right-handed rather than left-handed chiral projections, is excluded for masses below 1.85 TeV at the 95% confidence level. For the first time using LHC data, constraints on the W' gauge coupling for a set of left- and right-handed coupling combinations have been placed. These results represent a significant improvement over previously published limits.Comment: Submitted to Physics Letters B. Replaced with version publishe