Dynamic Winner-take-all Conflict

This paper develops a model of dynamic conflict featuring probabilistic winner- take-all outcomes and compares its behavior to a model in which combatants emerge with a share of the conflict spoils. While these two models generate the same behavior in a one-shot game, we find that in a repeated conflict setting the winner-take-all model generates richer dynamics than the dynamics generated by the share model. Differences include outcomes that illustrate the rise and fall of great powers, the endogenous extinction of combatants, and frequent changes in the relative dominance of combatants. The model's behavior is compared to real world military, business and political conflict outcomes.Anarchy, Fog of War, Paradox of Power, Winner-take-all conflict

Quantitation of Plasmodium falciparum sporozoites transmitted in vitro by experimentally infected Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles stephensi

The frequency and numbers of Plasmodium falciparum sporozoites transmitted in vitro and corresponding sporozoite loads were determined for experimentally infected Anopheles gambiae and An. stephensi. Geometric mean (GM) sporozoite loads in three experiments ranged from 808 to 13,905 for An. gambiae and from 6,608 to 17,702 for An. stephensi. A total of 44.1% of 68 infected An. gambiae and 49.2% of 63 infected An. stephensi transmitted sporozoites in vitro. The GM number of sporozoites transmitted was 4.5 for An. gambiae and 5.4 for An. stephensi. Overall, 86.9% of the mosquitoes transmitted from one to 25 sporozoites, and only 6.6% transmitted over 100 sporozoites (maximum = 369). Sporozoite loads were not a useful predictor of potential sporozoite transmission. Despite higher sporozoite loads, the numbers of sporozoites transmitted in vitro by the experimentally infected mosquitoes were similar to estimates obtained, using the same techniques, for naturally infected An. gambiae in western Kenya. The low but highly variable numbers of sporozoites transmitted in vitro by mosquitoes used in malaria vaccine challenge studies appears to be a reasonable simulation of natural sporozoite transmission.Peer reviewedEntomology and Plant Patholog

The Confederate military commissions of Edwin G. Lee, 1860-1864

Official military commissions, resignations, receipts for pay and other documents associated with the military career Edwin G. Lee. The documents include: An appointment as first lieutenant in the Virginia militia, June 1860 An appointment as a major in the active volunteer forces of Virginia, July 1861 An assignment to the 33rd Virginia Regiment, July 27, 1861 A resignation (at rank of Colonel), December 1862 A commission as Lieutenant Colonel in the 33rd Virginia Regiment, dated January 14, 1863 with term of service beginning in April of that year A certificate of nomination by the President (of the Confederate States) to Lieutenant Colonel in the Adjutant General\u27s department, Provisional Army of the Confederate States, March 13, 1863 Appointment as Major Assistant Adjutant General, Provisional Army of the Confederate States, April 11, 1863 An acceptance of resignation as acting Master in the Confederate States Navy, July 21, 1863 Appointment as Colonel of Cavalry in the Provisional Army of the Confederate States, November 19, 1863 Appointment as Brigadier General in the Provisional Army of the Confederate States, September 23, 1864 Certificate of payment to Lee, Paymaster\u27s Office, Staunton, Virginia, $544, October 31, 1864 Edwin Gray Lee also served the Confederacy in Canada during and after the war.https://digitalcommons.wofford.edu/littlejohnedwinlee/1000/thumbnail.jp

Scaphoid Waist Internal Fixation for Fractures Trial (SWIFFT) protocol : a pragmatic multi-centre randomised controlled trial of cast treatment versus surgical fixation for the treatment of bi-cortical, minimally displaced fractures of the scaphoid waist in adults

BACKGROUND: A scaphoid fracture is the most common type of carpal fracture affecting young active people. The optimal management of this fracture is uncertain. When treated with a cast, 88 to 90 % of these fractures unite; however, for the remaining 10-12 % the non-union almost invariably leads to arthritis. The alternative is surgery to fix the scaphoid with a screw at the outset. METHODS/DESIGN: We will conduct a randomised controlled trial (RCT) of 438 adult patients with a "clear" and "bicortical" scaphoid waist fracture on plain radiographs to evaluate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of plaster cast treatment (with fixation of those that fail to unite) versus early surgical fixation. The plaster cast treatment will be immobilisation in a below elbow cast for 6 to 10 weeks followed by mobilisation. If non-union is confirmed on plain radiographs and/or Computerised Tomogram at 6 to 12 weeks, then urgent surgical fixation will be performed. This is being compared with immediate surgical fixation with surgeons using their preferred technique and implant. These treatments will be undertaken in trauma units across the United Kingdom. The primary outcome and end-point will be the Patient Rated Wrist Evaluation (a patient self-reported assessment of wrist pain and function) at 52 weeks and also measured at 6, 12, 26 weeks and 5 years. Secondary outcomes include an assessment of radiological union of the fracture; quality of life; recovery of wrist range and strength; and complications. We will also qualitatively investigate patient experiences of their treatment. DISCUSSION: Scaphoid fractures are an important public health problem as they predominantly affect young active individuals in the more productive working years of their lives. Non-union, if untreated, can lead to arthritis which can disable patients at a very young age. There is a rapidly increasing trend for immediate surgical fixation of these fractures but there is insufficient evidence from existing RCTs to support this. The SWIFFT Trial is a rigorously designed and adequately powered study which aims to contribute to the evidence-base to inform clinical decisions for the treatment of this common fracture in adults. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial is registered with the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Register ( ISRCTN67901257 ). Date registration assigned was 13/02/2013

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. Methods We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61.7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61.4-61.9) in 1980 to 71.8 years (71.5-72.2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11.3 years (3.7-17.4), to 62.6 years (56.5-70.2). Total deaths increased by 4.1% (2.6-5.6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55.8 million (54.9 million to 56.6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17.0% (15.8-18.1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14.1% (12.6-16.0) to 39.8 million (39.2 million to 40.5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13.1% (11.9-14.3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42.1%, 39.1-44.6), malaria (43.1%, 34.7-51.8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29.8%, 24.8-34.9), and maternal disorders (29.1%, 19.3-37.1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death. Interpretation At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe