Dynamic Winner-take-all Conflict

Abstract

This paper develops a model of dynamic conflict featuring probabilistic winner- take-all outcomes and compares its behavior to a model in which combatants emerge with a share of the conflict spoils. While these two models generate the same behavior in a one-shot game, we find that in a repeated conflict setting the winner-take-all model generates richer dynamics than the dynamics generated by the share model. Differences include outcomes that illustrate the rise and fall of great powers, the endogenous extinction of combatants, and frequent changes in the relative dominance of combatants. The model's behavior is compared to real world military, business and political conflict outcomes.Anarchy, Fog of War, Paradox of Power, Winner-take-all conflict