Design and analysis of quasi-experiments in landscape ecology: responses of fauna to landscape vegetation transformation in South-Eastern NSW

The context for this work is the application of statistical science in the study of interrelationships between fauna and environments undergoing change in landscape ecology. The core of the thesis is a collection of papers which can be viewed in two ways: 1) a set of major studies in statistical practice in the field of ecology and 2) as contributions to new knowledge on the effects of landscape vegetation transformation on fauna, in particular birds, in south-eastern Australia. These papers exhibit effective contributions to ecology and conservation of wildlife through an ability to understand ecological issues from a statistical perspective. The focus in this thesis is as much on scientific process as it is on biological outcomes. The introductory chapter provides an overview of some of the statistical thinking behind my contributions to four major projects through statistical design and statistical modelling, and highlights some key findings and new understandings in ecology. Key roles in the research presented include: • Recognising natural systems in the landscape worthy of study and seizing the opportunity to study them (ecological serendipity). ‘Treatments’ (ecological contrasts) are selected and planned and are assigned randomly in true experiments; in quasi-experiments, treatments may already exist, are not randomly assigned but can be taken advantage of. • Formulating projects and asking interesting and important questions. • Considering the ‘best’ study design to yield high quality data suitable for addressing the key questions. • Overseeing the implementation of the design, fieldwork protocols, and providing input into data collection and collation. • Formulating statistical models for analysis. • Undertaking all of the data analysis and taking responsibility for statistical analysis and resulting inferences. Where necessary, adapting existing methodologies suitable for solving the problem at hand. • Developing suitable statistical presentation of results. • Interpreting and explaining results. • Writing scientific articles and submitting them for publication. Statistical topics and methods include the design of large-scale quasi-experiments in landscape ecology, and a range of powerful and flexible statistical modelling frameworks for the analysis of a diverse range of data types and complex data structures. Interdisciplinary collaboration has resulted in many significant scientific contributions to ecological knowledge in the study of relationships between faunal biodiversity and landscape transformation. In particular, the importance of statistical aspects of experimental design in large-scale, long-term research studies has been demonstrated. Many new insights into effects of plantation establishment and subsequent maturation on different groups of biota have been gained. Cross-sectional and temporal responses to revegetation, regrowth, and remnant vegetation at multiple spatial scales have been quantified. Composite indices have been developed for classifying biodiversity values of farms by novel applications of statistical ideas. Furthermore, significant contributions have been made in developing sound statistical methodology for the study of long-term trends in reporting rates of birds, using structurally complex presence-absence data. These methods have been recently adapted by Birdlife Australia and now form the basis for summarising trends in terrestrial birds

A treatment that eliminates SARS-CoV-2 replication in human airway epithelial cells and is safe for inhalation as an aerosol in healthy human subjects

Background: Low airway surface pH is associated with many airway diseases, impairs antimicrobial host defense and worsens airway inflammation. Inhaled Optate is designed to safely to raise airway surface pH and is well-tolerated in humans. Raising intracellular pH partially prevents activation of SARS-CoV-2 in primary normal human airway epithelial (NHAE) cells, decreasing viral replication by several mechanisms. Methods: Here, we grew primary normal human airway epithelial (NHAE) cells from healthy subjects, infected them with SARS-CoV-2 (isolate USA-WA1/2020), and used clinical Optate at concentrations used in humans in vivo to determine whether it would prevent viral infection and replication. Cells were pre-treated with Optate or placebo prior to infection (MOI of 0.1) and viral replication was determined by plaque assay and nucleocapsid (N) protein levels. Healthy human subjects also inhaled Optate as part of a Phase 2a safety trial. Results: Optate almost completely prevented viral replication at each time point between 24 and 120 hours, relative to placebo, both by plaque assay and by N protein expression (p < 0.001). Mechanistically, Optate inhibited expression of major endosomal trafficking genes and raised NHAE intracellular pH. Optate had no effect on NHAE cell viability at any time point. Inhaled Optate was well tolerated in 10 normal subjects, with no change in lung function, vital signs or oxygenation. Conclusions: Inhaled Optate may be well-suited for a clinical trial in patients with a pulmonary SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, it is vitally important for patient safety that formulations designed for inhalation with regards to pH, isotonicity and osmolality be used. An inhalational treatment that safely prevents SARS-CoV-2 viral replication could be helpful for treating patients with pulmonary SARS-CoV-2 infection.Funded by NHLBI (P01 HL128192), the Lilly Endowment, and the Riley Children’s Foundation. Competing Interests: MDD and BG are funded by NIH P01 HL128192-01A1, are patent holders of Optate, and are co-Founders of Airbase Breathing Company. SDG and CMR are also patent holders of Optate

Effects of antiplatelet therapy on stroke risk by brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases: subgroup analyses of the RESTART randomised, open-label trial

Background Findings from the RESTART trial suggest that starting antiplatelet therapy might reduce the risk of recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage compared with avoiding antiplatelet therapy. Brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases (such as cerebral microbleeds) are associated with greater risks of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage. We did subgroup analyses of the RESTART trial to explore whether these brain imaging features modify the effects of antiplatelet therapy

Scientific publishing and the reading of science in nineteenth-century Britain: a historiographical survey and guide to sources

[FIRST PARAGRAPH] It is now generally accepted that both the conception and practices of natural enquiry in the Western tradition underwent a series of profound developments in the late eighteenth and early nineteenth century—developments which have been variously characterized as a ‘second scientific revolution’ and, much more tellingly, as the ‘invention of science’. As several authors have argued, moreover, a crucial aspect of this change consisted in the distinctive audience relations of the new sciences. While eighteenth-century natural philosophy was distinguished by an audience relation in which, as William Whewell put it, ‘a large and popular circle of spectators and amateurs [felt] themselves nearly upon a level, in the value of their trials and speculations, with more profound thinkers’, the science which was invented in the late eighteenth and early nineteenth century was, as Simon Schaffer has argued, marked by the ‘emergence of disciplined, trained cadres of research scientists’ clearly distinguished from a wider, exoteric public. Similarly, Jan Golinski argues that the ‘emergence of new instrumentation and a more consolidated social structure for the specialist community’ for early nineteenth-century chemistry was intimately connected with the transformation in the role of its public audience to a condition of relative passivity. These moves were underpinned by crucial epistemological and rhetorical shifts—from a logic of discovery, theoretically open to all, to a more restrictive notion of discovery as the preserve of scientific ‘genius’, and from an open-ended philosophy of ‘experience’ to a far more restrictive notion of disciplined ‘expertise’. Both of these moves were intended to do boundary work, restricting the community active in creating and validating scientific knowledge, and producing a passive public

Titin-truncating variants affect heart function in disease cohorts and the general population

Titin-truncating variants (TTNtv) commonly cause dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM). TTNtv are also encountered in ~1% of the general population, where they may be silent, perhaps reflecting allelic factors. To better understand TTNtv, we integrated TTN allelic series, cardiac imaging and genomic data in humans and studied rat models with disparate TTNtv. In patients with DCM, TTNtv throughout titin were significantly associated with DCM. Ribosomal profiling in rat showed the translational footprint of premature stop codons in Ttn, TTNtv-position-independent nonsense-mediated degradation of the mutant allele and a signature of perturbed cardiac metabolism. Heart physiology in rats with TTNtv was unremarkable at baseline but became impaired during cardiac stress. In healthy humans, machine-learning-based analysis of high-resolution cardiac imaging showed TTNtv to be associated with eccentric cardiac remodeling. These data show that TTNtv have molecular and physiological effects on the heart across species, with a continuum of expressivity in health and disease

Addressing climate change with behavioral science:A global intervention tournament in 63 countries

Effectively reducing climate change requires marked, global behavior change. However, it is unclear which strategies are most likely to motivate people to change their climate beliefs and behaviors. Here, we tested 11 expert-crowdsourced interventions on four climate mitigation outcomes: beliefs, policy support, information sharing intention, and an effortful tree-planting behavioral task. Across 59,440 participants from 63 countries, the interventions' effectiveness was small, largely limited to nonclimate skeptics, and differed across outcomes: Beliefs were strengthened mostly by decreasing psychological distance (by 2.3%), policy support by writing a letter to a future-generation member (2.6%), information sharing by negative emotion induction (12.1%), and no intervention increased the more effortful behavior-several interventions even reduced tree planting. Last, the effects of each intervention differed depending on people's initial climate beliefs. These findings suggest that the impact of behavioral climate interventions varies across audiences and target behaviors.</p

Addressing climate change with behavioral science: a global intervention tournament in 63 countries

Effectively reducing climate change requires marked, global behavior change. However, it is unclear which strategies are most likely to motivate people to change their climate beliefs and behaviors. Here, we tested 11 expert-crowdsourced interventions on four climate mitigation outcomes: beliefs, policy support, information sharing intention, and an effortful tree-planting behavioral task. Across 59,440 participants from 63 countries, the interventions’ effectiveness was small, largely limited to nonclimate skeptics, and differed across outcomes: Beliefs were strengthened mostly by decreasing psychological distance (by 2.3%), policy support by writing a letter to a future-generation member (2.6%), information sharing by negative emotion induction (12.1%), and no intervention increased the more effortful behavior—several interventions even reduced tree planting. Last, the effects of each intervention differed depending on people’s initial climate beliefs. These findings suggest that the impact of behavioral climate interventions varies across audiences and target behaviors

Addressing climate change with behavioral science:A global intervention tournament in 63 countries

Effectively reducing climate change requires marked, global behavior change. However, it is unclear which strategies are most likely to motivate people to change their climate beliefs and behaviors. Here, we tested 11 expert-crowdsourced interventions on four climate mitigation outcomes: beliefs, policy support, information sharing intention, and an effortful tree-planting behavioral task. Across 59,440 participants from 63 countries, the interventions' effectiveness was small, largely limited to nonclimate skeptics, and differed across outcomes: Beliefs were strengthened mostly by decreasing psychological distance (by 2.3%), policy support by writing a letter to a future-generation member (2.6%), information sharing by negative emotion induction (12.1%), and no intervention increased the more effortful behavior-several interventions even reduced tree planting. Last, the effects of each intervention differed depending on people's initial climate beliefs. These findings suggest that the impact of behavioral climate interventions varies across audiences and target behaviors.</p